Projecting the Field for the Women’s 2015 NCAA Championships (Cut Line Analysis)

Update: one of our readers found an error. Stephanie Peters should have been included on the list of “39 line” swimmers. Changes have been made.

Who is patient enough to wait for USA Swimming and the NCAA to crunch the numbers and spit out the list of 281 swimming qualifiers for the 2015 NCAA Women’s Championships?

Certainly not us.

So, below, we’ve taken the pre-selection sheets and run the numbers on who is projected to make the field of swimmers for the NCAA Championships.

The basic qualifying rules are that 281 swimmers go to the meet in individual events (in addition to 41, separately selected, divers). That means that if a swimmer is in the top 10, for example, in multiple events, that opens up more spots closer to the cut line.

All “A” cut swimmers go to the meet automatically, which is almost irrelevant in Division I. Then, the committee starts lining out swimmers, line-by-line, across all of the individual events, until they break the threshold of 281 swimmers.

This year, by our math, going through 38 lines of qualifying came out to 274 swimmers, and going through 39 lines of qualifying came out to 283 swimmers. That means that everyone seeded in the top 38 of an individual event should earn an invite to NCAA’s.

Where things get complicated is on the 39th line with tie breakers. There are 8 swimmers on that line who are not otherwise invited in another event, and so those are the 8 where the focus lies.

Among those 9, the 7 with the swims that are closest, by percentage, to the existing NCAA Championship record will go to the meet. The other two will be the first alternates.

Here’s how the math came out:

Swimmer Event Entry Time (in secs) Championship Record (in secs)  Percent of record
Peters, Stephanie 500 free 282.73 272.53 96.39%
Hull, Valerie 100 free 48.88 46.82 95.79%
Finke, Autumn 1650 free 977.36 927.84 94.93%
Paez, Isabella 200 fly 116.92 110.98 94.92%
Lincoln, Hannah 100 fly 52.79 50.01 94.73%
Ibanez Lopez, Lili 200 free 105.94 100.31 94.69%
Gonzalez Medina, Esther 200 breast 131.23 124.06 94.54%
Nihipali, Anu 100 back 52.97 49.97 94.34% 1st Alternate
Carlson, Maria 100 breast 60.74 57.23 94.22% 2nd Alternate

That means that Valerie Hull, Autumn Finke, Isabella Paez, Hannah Lincoln, Lili Ibanez, and Esther Gonzalez Medina,  will make the field of 281. Wisconsin’s Maria Carlson and Wagner’s Anu Nihipali will sit and await a call. The past few seasons have seen a fair share of late scratches, so their hopes are not totally dashed yet.

This cut line falls exactly in the same spot as it did last year, with all but two swimmers on the 39 line qualifying.

We will stop short of certifying this at 100%, but we were right-on-the-numbers each of the last two years. In interest of transparency, here’s our work so that you can do the math yourself. Please let us know in the comments if you agree or disagree with the numbers.:

Open in Google Docs.

And, without further ado, here are the 281 qualifiers for the NCAA Championships, first sorted by team name and then by athlete last name:

By team name:

Swimmer Team
Miller, Genevieve Air Force
Blood, Bridget Alabama
Burchell, Kaylin Alabama
Nonnenberg, Mia Alabama
Saunders, Emma Alabama
Borendame, Sara Arizona
Brandon, Bonnie Arizona
Oder, Tjasa Arizona
Pepper, Elizabeth Arizona
Schick, Taylor Arizona
Schoettmer, Emma Arizona
Jonsdottir, Ingibjorg Arizona St.
Simonovic, Kat Arizona St.
Daniels, Nikki Arkansas
Mayfield, Anna Arkansas
Monroe, Maddie Arkansas
Tatlow, Chelsea Arkansas
Fonteno, Megan Auburn
Hull, Valerie Auburn
Lazor, Annie Auburn
Lloyd, Natasha Auburn
Neidigh, Ashley Auburn
Purcell, Allyx Auburn
Vitarius, Jillian Auburn
Aoyama, Brittany Boise St.
Wicks, Sam Boise St.
Levendoski, Emma Bucknell
Acker, Rachael Cal
Bing, Kaylin Cal
Bootsma, Rachel Cal
Cheng, Camille Cal
Franklin, Missy Cal
Garcia Urzainqui, Marina Cal
Klaren, Melanie Cal
Li, Celina Cal
Mau, Jasmine Cal
Naze, Kelly Cal
Osman, Farida Cal
Pelton, Elizabeth Cal
Piehl, Caroline Cal
Runge, Cierra Cal
Thomas, Noemie Cal
Vredeveld, Kristen Cal
Keire, Jacqueline Cincinnati
Corea, Sam Denver
Roas, Johanna Denver
Goldman, Leah Duke
Paez, Isabella Duke
Sellers, Megan East Carolina
Armitage, Katie FGCU
Svensson, Emma FGCU
Toussaint, Kira FGCU
Finke, Autumn Florida
Hinds, Natalie Florida
Hohmann, Georgia-Mae Florida
Katz, Taylor Florida
Linn, Ashlee Florida
Maughan, Amelia Florida
McKnight, Lindsey Florida
Michalak, Theresa Florida
Roy, Taylor Florida
Thielmann, Jessica Florida
Yambor-Maul, Alyssa Florida
Bucz, Agi Florida Atlantic
Gustafsdottir, Johanna Florida International
Scalia, Silvia Florida International
Britt, Chelsea Florida State
Dressel, Kaitlyn Florida State
Pochowski, Sami Florida State
Cameron, Emily Georgia
Flickinger, Hali Georgia
Harrington, Lauren Georgia
Kingsley, Megan Georgia
Locus, Madeline Georgia
MacLean, Brittany Georgia
Mattern, Jordan Georgia
McDermott, Amber Georgia
Peters, Courtney Georgia
Peters, Stephanie Georgia
Raab, Meaghan Georgia
Smoliga, Olivia Georgia
Stewart, Kylie Georgia
Van Landeghem, Chantal Georgia
Vernon, Nicole Georgia
Weaver, Courtney Georgia
Zhu, Annie Georgia
Zilinskas, Rachel Georgia
Lee, Danielle Harvard
Alkhaldi, Jasmine Hawaii
Chamberlain, Marie Indiana
Dalesandro, Gia Indiana
Day, Allie Indiana
Goss, Kennedy Indiana
Lips, Haley Indiana
Lisy, Sam Indiana
Marchuk, Stephanie Indiana
Pammett, Cynthia Indiana
Pressey, Bailey Indiana
Ress, Justine Indiana
Snodgrass, Brooklynn Indiana
Szekeres, Dorina Indiana
Sougstad, Emma Iowa
Stoughton, Becky Iowa
Miller, Chelsie Kansas
Alexander, Bridgette Kentucky
Bechtel, Christina Kentucky
Casey, Kendal Kentucky
Galyer, Danielle Kentucky
Myers, Abby Kentucky
Chin, Abby Louisville
Cottrell, Andee Louisville
Kneppers, Andrea Louisville
Kylliainen, Tanja Louisville
Worrell, Kelsi Louisville
Carter, Amber LSU
Kopcso, Kara LSU
O’Neil, Colleen LSU
Oquist, Caley LSU
Troskot, Leah LSU
Cummings, Kelsey Michigan
Deloof, Ali Michigan
Goswell, Claudia Michigan
Kopas, Emily Michigan
Moore, Hannah Michigan
Ryan, Gillian Michigan
Smiddy, Clara Michigan
Harding, Sam Minnesota
Janzen, Kiera Minnesota
Nack, Danielle Minnesota
Plant, Jessica Minnesota
Simenec, Tori Minnesota
Smith, Kierra Minnesota
Votava, Lauren Minnesota
Weiland, Becca Minnesota
Zeiger, Brooke Minnesota
Barbiea, Dani Missouri
Brady, Sharli Missouri
Duncan, Abby Missouri
Ross, Katharine Missouri
Stevens, Hannah Missouri
Bonnema, Riki NC State
Muller, Rachel NC State
Poli, Lauren NC State
Zevnik, Alexia NC State
Baerens, Teresa Nevada
Li, Yawen Nevada
Mann, Katie New Hampshire
Bestor, Megan North Carolina
Hardesty, Allyn North Carolina
Lincoln, Hannah North Carolina
Moffitt, Hellen North Carolina
Munch, Katie North Carolina
Nunn, Emma North Carolina
Runyon-Hass, Hannah North Carolina
Siverling, Danielle North Carolina
Reaney, Emma Notre Dame
Clary, Lindsey Ohio State
Dzierzak, Rachael Ohio State
Li, Zhesi Ohio State
Schmidtke, Aliena Ohio State
Vance, Ashley Ohio State
Vargo, Taylor Ohio State
Harrison, Sammy Oregon State
Verger Gourson, Margaux Pacific
Ackman, Alyson Penn State
Fittin, Carolyn Penn State
Francis, Casey Penn State
Rodriguez, Melissa Penn State
Rowe, Katie Penn State
Siverling, Megan Penn State
Sowinski, Katelyn Penn State
Richey, Amanda Pitt
Ritter, Kaleigh Pitt
Davis, Alexa Purdue
Fogle, Emily Purdue
Marr, Francesca Purdue
Meitz, Kaersten Purdue
Sheets, Rhiannon Purdue
Clark, Casey Rice
Leberfinger, Greta Rutgers
Apostalon, Anika San Diego St.
Bailey, Chelsea San Diego St.
Harrison, Summer San Diego St.
McCormick, Morgan San Jose St.
Arcila, Isabella SMU
Erasmus, Marne SMU
Lindborg, Nathalie SMU
Nicholas, Tara-Lynn SMU
Nicol, Rachel SMU
Vay, Meredth South Carolina
Anderson, Julia Stanford
Brown, Allison Stanford
Carlson, Grace Stanford
Engel, Lindsey Stanford
Haase, Sarah Stanford
Halsted, Tara Stanford
Howe, Ally Stanford
Hu, Janet Stanford
Manuel, Simone Stanford
Neal, Lia Stanford
Olsen, Katie Stanford
Poppe, Heidi Stanford
Bruens, Harper Tennessee
Callahan, Colleen Tennessee
Carner, Amanda Tennessee
Demonte, Anna Tennessee
Dickson, Morgan Tennessee
Driscoll, Lauren Tennessee
Griffith, Mary Tennessee
Hannis, Molly Tennessee
Johnson, Faith Tennessee
Lundstrom, Heather Tennessee
Tegner, Maddy Tennessee
Cox, Madisyn Texas
Denninghoff, Sarah Texas
Jaques, Gretchen Texas
Karosas, Tasija Texas
Leneave, Kelsey Texas
Millard, Rebecca Texas
Pawlowicz, Kaitlin Texas
Schneider, Mimi Texas
Bosma, Sammie Texas A&M
Brandt, Claire Texas A&M
Bratton, Lisa Texas A&M
Galat, Bethany Texas A&M
Gastaldello, Beryl Texas A&M
Gibson, Sarah Texas A&M
Gonzalez Medina, Esther Texas A&M
Henry, Sarah Texas A&M
Ibanez Lopez, Lili Texas A&M
Jonker, Franko Texas A&M
Malone, Kristin Texas A&M
McGregor, Ashley Texas A&M
McMahon, Sycerika Texas A&M
Neubert, Emily Texas A&M
Norman, Laura Texas A&M
Oliver, Meredith Texas A&M
Arnold, Macey Towson
Van Camp, Jenna Towson
Schachter, Mia Tulane
Campbell, Katy UCLA
Grover, Katie UCLA
Mack, Linnea UCLA
Tarazona, Noelle UCLA
White, Madison UCLA
Wine, Allison UCLA
Escobedo, Emily UMBC
Chenault, Chelsea USC
Colleou, Stina USC
Kropp, Andrea USC
Stewart, Kendyl USC
Swenson, Evan USC
Weiss, Hannah USC
Wilk, Kasia USC
Worrall, Lucy USC
Gigliotti, Giuliana Utah
Bartholomew, Courtney Virginia
Borgersen, Hanne Virginia
Casey, Shaun Virginia
Cooper, Caitlin Virginia
Haulsee, Alison Virginia
Jones, Kaitlyn Virginia
Marrkand, Jen Virginia
Simon, Laura Virginia
Smith, Leah Virginia
Thomas, Ellen Virginia
Williamson, Ellen Virginia
Donnelly, Fiona Virginia Tech
Gruber, Maggie Virginia Tech
Nazieblo, Klaudia Virginia Tech
Paluszek, Weronika Virginia Tech
Stewart, Mackenzie Virginia Tech
Laemmler, Nadine Western Kentucky
Marquess, Susan Western Kentucky
Grindall, Dana Wisconsin
Holtzen, Jenny Wisconsin
Martin, Ivy Wisconsin
Valley, Danielle Wisconsin
Van Hout, Aja Wisconsin
Zimmerman, Maddy Yale

By last name:

Swimmer Team
Acker, Rachael Cal
Ackman, Alyson Penn State
Alexander, Bridgette Kentucky
Alkhaldi, Jasmine Hawaii
Anderson, Julia Stanford
Aoyama, Brittany Boise St.
Apostalon, Anika San Diego St.
Arcila, Isabella SMU
Armitage, Katie FGCU
Arnold, Macey Towson
Baerens, Teresa Nevada
Bailey, Chelsea San Diego St.
Barbiea, Dani Missouri
Bartholomew, Courtney Virginia
Bechtel, Christina Kentucky
Bestor, Megan North Carolina
Bing, Kaylin Cal
Blood, Bridget Alabama
Bonnema, Riki NC State
Bootsma, Rachel Cal
Borendame, Sara Arizona
Borgersen, Hanne Virginia
Bosma, Sammie Texas A&M
Brady, Sharli Missouri
Brandon, Bonnie Arizona
Brandt, Claire Texas A&M
Bratton, Lisa Texas A&M
Britt, Chelsea Florida State
Brown, Allison Stanford
Bruens, Harper Tennessee
Bucz, Agi Florida Atlantic
Burchell, Kaylin Alabama
Callahan, Colleen Tennessee
Cameron, Emily Georgia
Campbell, Katy UCLA
Carlson, Grace Stanford
Carner, Amanda Tennessee
Carter, Amber LSU
Casey, Kendal Kentucky
Casey, Shaun Virginia
Chamberlain, Marie Indiana
Chenault, Chelsea USC
Cheng, Camille Cal
Chin, Abby Louisville
Clark, Casey Rice
Clary, Lindsey Ohio State
Colleou, Stina USC
Cooper, Caitlin Virginia
Corea, Sam Denver
Cottrell, Andee Louisville
Cox, Madisyn Texas
Cummings, Kelsey Michigan
Dalesandro, Gia Indiana
Daniels, Nikki Arkansas
Davis, Alexa Purdue
Day, Allie Indiana
Deloof, Ali Michigan
Demonte, Anna Tennessee
Denninghoff, Sarah Texas
Dickson, Morgan Tennessee
Donnelly, Fiona Virginia Tech
Dressel, Kaitlyn Florida State
Driscoll, Lauren Tennessee
Duncan, Abby Missouri
Dzierzak, Rachael Ohio State
Engel, Lindsey Stanford
Erasmus, Marne SMU
Escobedo, Emily UMBC
Finke, Autumn Florida
Fittin, Carolyn Penn State
Flickinger, Hali Georgia
Fogle, Emily Purdue
Fonteno, Megan Auburn
Francis, Casey Penn State
Franklin, Missy Cal
Galat, Bethany Texas A&M
Galyer, Danielle Kentucky
Garcia Urzainqui, Marina Cal
Gastaldello, Beryl Texas A&M
Gibson, Sarah Texas A&M
Gigliotti, Giuliana Utah
Goldman, Leah Duke
Gonzalez Medina, Esther Texas A&M
Goss, Kennedy Indiana
Goswell, Claudia Michigan
Griffith, Mary Tennessee
Grindall, Dana Wisconsin
Grover, Katie UCLA
Gruber, Maggie Virginia Tech
Gustafsdottir, Johanna Florida International
Haase, Sarah Stanford
Halsted, Tara Stanford
Hannis, Molly Tennessee
Hardesty, Allyn North Carolina
Harding, Sam Minnesota
Harrington, Lauren Georgia
Harrison, Sammy Oregon State
Harrison, Summer San Diego St.
Haulsee, Alison Virginia
Henry, Sarah Texas A&M
Hinds, Natalie Florida
Hohmann, Georgia-Mae Florida
Holtzen, Jenny Wisconsin
Howe, Ally Stanford
Hu, Janet Stanford
Hull, Valerie Auburn
Ibanez Lopez, Lili Texas A&M
Janzen, Kiera Minnesota
Jaques, Gretchen Texas
Johnson, Faith Tennessee
Jones, Kaitlyn Virginia
Jonker, Franko Texas A&M
Jonsdottir, Ingibjorg Arizona St.
Karosas, Tasija Texas
Katz, Taylor Florida
Keire, Jacqueline Cincinnati
Kingsley, Megan Georgia
Klaren, Melanie Cal
Kneppers, Andrea Louisville
Kopas, Emily Michigan
Kopcso, Kara LSU
Kropp, Andrea USC
Kylliainen, Tanja Louisville
Laemmler, Nadine Western Kentucky
Lazor, Annie Auburn
Leberfinger, Greta Rutgers
Lee, Danielle Harvard
Leneave, Kelsey Texas
Levendoski, Emma Bucknell
Li, Celina Cal
Li, Yawen Nevada
Li, Zhesi Ohio State
Lincoln, Hannah North Carolina
Lindborg, Nathalie SMU
Linn, Ashlee Florida
Lips, Haley Indiana
Lisy, Sam Indiana
Lloyd, Natasha Auburn
Locus, Madeline Georgia
Lundstrom, Heather Tennessee
Mack, Linnea UCLA
MacLean, Brittany Georgia
Malone, Kristin Texas A&M
Mann, Katie New Hampshire
Manuel, Simone Stanford
Marchuk, Stephanie Indiana
Marquess, Susan Western Kentucky
Marr, Francesca Purdue
Marrkand, Jen Virginia
Martin, Ivy Wisconsin
Mattern, Jordan Georgia
Mau, Jasmine Cal
Maughan, Amelia Florida
Mayfield, Anna Arkansas
McCormick, Morgan San Jose St.
McDermott, Amber Georgia
McGregor, Ashley Texas A&M
McKnight, Lindsey Florida
McMahon, Sycerika Texas A&M
Meitz, Kaersten Purdue
Michalak, Theresa Florida
Millard, Rebecca Texas
Miller, Chelsie Kansas
Miller, Genevieve Air Force
Moffitt, Hellen North Carolina
Monroe, Maddie Arkansas
Moore, Hannah Michigan
Muller, Rachel NC State
Munch, Katie North Carolina
Myers, Abby Kentucky
Nack, Danielle Minnesota
Naze, Kelly Cal
Nazieblo, Klaudia Virginia Tech
Neal, Lia Stanford
Neidigh, Ashley Auburn
Neubert, Emily Texas A&M
Nicholas, Tara-Lynn SMU
Nicol, Rachel SMU
Nonnenberg, Mia Alabama
Norman, Laura Texas A&M
Nunn, Emma North Carolina
O’Neil, Colleen LSU
Oder, Tjasa Arizona
Oliver, Meredith Texas A&M
Olsen, Katie Stanford
Oquist, Caley LSU
Osman, Farida Cal
Paez, Isabella Duke
Paluszek, Weronika Virginia Tech
Pammett, Cynthia Indiana
Pawlowicz, Kaitlin Texas
Pelton, Elizabeth Cal
Pepper, Elizabeth Arizona
Peters, Courtney Georgia
Peters, Stephanie Georgia
Piehl, Caroline Cal
Plant, Jessica Minnesota
Pochowski, Sami Florida State
Poli, Lauren NC State
Poppe, Heidi Stanford
Pressey, Bailey Indiana
Purcell, Allyx Auburn
Raab, Meaghan Georgia
Reaney, Emma Notre Dame
Ress, Justine Indiana
Richey, Amanda Pitt
Ritter, Kaleigh Pitt
Roas, Johanna Denver
Rodriguez, Melissa Penn State
Ross, Katharine Missouri
Rowe, Katie Penn State
Roy, Taylor Florida
Runge, Cierra Cal
Runyon-Hass, Hannah North Carolina
Ryan, Gillian Michigan
Saunders, Emma Alabama
Scalia, Silvia Florida International
Schachter, Mia Tulane
Schick, Taylor Arizona
Schmidtke, Aliena Ohio State
Schneider, Mimi Texas
Schoettmer, Emma Arizona
Sellers, Megan East Carolina
Sheets, Rhiannon Purdue
Simenec, Tori Minnesota
Simon, Laura Virginia
Simonovic, Kat Arizona St.
Siverling, Danielle North Carolina
Siverling, Megan Penn State
Smiddy, Clara Michigan
Smith, Kierra Minnesota
Smith, Leah Virginia
Smoliga, Olivia Georgia
Snodgrass, Brooklynn Indiana
Sougstad, Emma Iowa
Sowinski, Katelyn Penn State
Stevens, Hannah Missouri
Stewart, Kendyl USC
Stewart, Kylie Georgia
Stewart, Mackenzie Virginia Tech
Stoughton, Becky Iowa
Svensson, Emma FGCU
Swenson, Evan USC
Szekeres, Dorina Indiana
Tarazona, Noelle UCLA
Tatlow, Chelsea Arkansas
Tegner, Maddy Tennessee
Thielmann, Jessica Florida
Thomas, Ellen Virginia
Thomas, Noemie Cal
Toussaint, Kira FGCU
Troskot, Leah LSU
Valley, Danielle Wisconsin
Van Camp, Jenna Towson
Van Hout, Aja Wisconsin
Van Landeghem, Chantal Georgia
Vance, Ashley Ohio State
Vargo, Taylor Ohio State
Vay, Meredth South Carolina
Verger Gourson, Margaux Pacific
Vernon, Nicole Georgia
Vitarius, Jillian Auburn
Votava, Lauren Minnesota
Vredeveld, Kristen Cal
Weaver, Courtney Georgia
Weiland, Becca Minnesota
Weiss, Hannah USC
White, Madison UCLA
Wicks, Sam Boise St.
Wilk, Kasia USC
Williamson, Ellen Virginia
Wine, Allison UCLA
Worrall, Lucy USC
Worrell, Kelsi Louisville
Yambor-Maul, Alyssa Florida
Zeiger, Brooke Minnesota
Zevnik, Alexia NC State
Zhu, Annie Georgia
Zilinskas, Rachel Georgia
Zimmerman, Maddy Yale

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38 Comments on "Projecting the Field for the Women’s 2015 NCAA Championships (Cut Line Analysis)"

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Just saying

Stephanie Peters is ranked 39th in 500 free, which is her highest placing event. She isn’t listed among the 8 swimmers who are on the cut line. Any reason for this?

…please be right… please be right… please be right… please be right… 🙂

I promise I’m not stalking your daughter, but I told Doug last night that I though Meredith would make the cut!

ThatSwimKid

Abby Duncan swims for Mizzou now.

…and swimming real well too!

wpDiscuz

About Braden Keith

Braden Keith

Braden Keith is the Editor-in-Chief and a co-founder of SwimSwam.com. He first got his feet wet by building The Swimmers' Circle beginning in January 2010, and now comes to SwimSwam to use that experience and help build a new leader in the sport of swimming. Aside from his life on the InterWet, …

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