Projecting the Cut-Line: 29 to Go, Plus 3 from 30, to 2016 Men’s NCAAs

Updated after our readers caught an error at 9:30 AM.

The invited cut-line for the 2016 men’s NCAA Swimming & Diving Championships has gotten a little more lenient than it was last season.

The NCAA doesn’t send out invitations based on “number of swimmers per event,” rather they invite a total number of individual competitors by taking the top swimmer in each event, then the 2nd, then the 3rd, until they’ve reached 235 total UNIQUE individual swimmers invited (plus 35 divers – which are chosen independently).

By our math, the top 29 swimmers in each individual event goes through 232* swimmers, and with 235 individual swimmers selected to the meet, that leaves 3 spots for swimmers ranked 30th in their event.

Note: This includes two ties for 29th that aren’t obviously indicated on the pre-selection sheets: Kyle Darmody in the 100 free (who’s already selected anyway), and Yuri Samouilich of Hawaii, who’s tied for 29th in the 200 free.

Tie-Breaker

Among the 11 swimmers sitting on the 30th line, 4 swimmers have already qualified in other events and aren’t considered in this analysis. That leaves 7 swimmers to vie for those final 3 spots, and that tie is broken by taken each swimmer’s entry time and comparing it to the NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP MEET RECORD (not overall record) in that event. The times that are closest to that NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP MEET RECORD, by percentage, get selected.

That analysis is here:

Seed Swimmer Team Time Event Championship Record Percentage
30 Stuart, Hennessey NC State-NC 1:44.42 200 IM Already Qualified
30 Ringgold, Brett Texas-ST 46.47 100 fly Already Qualified
30 Lehane, Sean Tennessee-SE 46.51 100 back Already Qualified
30 Blyzinskyj, Jack Florida-FL 1:41.96 200 back Already Qualified
30 Seal, Brayden Ohio St-OH 4:17.73 500 free 4:08.60 0.9645753308
30 Manganiello, Blake Florida-FL 15:00.11 1650 free  14:24.08 0.959971559
30 Higgins, Kyle Kentucky-KY 1:43.65 200 fly 1:39.33 0.9583212735
30 Rainey, Ian Michigan-MI 3:45.61 400 IM 3:34.50 0.9507557289
30 Tynes, Dustin Ohio St-OH 52.93 100 breast 50.04 0.9453995844
30 Peek, James Duke-NC 19.54 50 free 18.47 0.9452405322
30 Crosby, Gage Arizona-AZ 1:55.31 200 breast 1:48.66 0.942329373

By our math, that means that Ohio State’s Brayden Seal, Florida’s Blake Mandaniello, and Kentucky’s Kyle Higgins will all earn NCAA Invites, while Michigan’s Ian rainey, Ohio State’s Dustin Tynes, Duke’s James Peek, and Arizona’s Gage Crosby will all go to the alternate list.

Rainey has at least some opportunity for an invite, as there frequently are scratches after pre-selection sheets are released (we’ve already seen one on the women’s side, for example). Texas already has 17 swimmers entered, and while divers only count as one-half of a competitor, Texas already had at least two qualify through the first day of zone competition.

The List

Below, see a full list of athletes expected to earn invites to the 2016 NCAA Championships, sorted by team. Note that both Texas and North Carolina have a swimmer named Sam Lewis; this was the only double-name scenario we identified, though if we missed one, it would affect the analysis above.

Swimmer Team
Barnosky, Michael Air Force (M)-CO
McKee, Anton Alabama-SE
Gkolomeev, Kristian Alabama-SE
Kaliszak, Luke Alabama-SE
Walsh, Brett Alabama-SE
Romanov, Pavel Alabama-SE
Oslin, Connor Alabama-SE
Reid, Christopher Alabama-SE
Bams, Laurent Alabama-SE
Duskinas, Tadas Arizona St-AZ
Bohus, Richard Arizona St-AZ
Tolosa, Juan Arizona St-AZ
Perry, Barkley Arizona St-AZ
Lorenz, Christian Arizona St-AZ
Park, Patrick Arizona St-AZ
Wieser, Chris Arizona-AZ
Richmond, Renny Arizona-AZ
Thorne, Nick Arizona-AZ
Bish, Blair Arizona-AZ
Dobbs, Chatham Arizona-AZ
Fowler, Ty Arizona-AZ
Maudslien, Thane Arizona-AZ
Wright, Justin Arizona-AZ
Morris, Hugo Auburn-SE
Patching, Joe Auburn-SE
Holoda, Peter Auburn-SE
Darmody, Kyle Auburn-SE
Apple, Zach Auburn-SE
Stewart, Sam Auburn-SE
Mendes, Arthur Auburn-SE
Martinez, Luis Auburn-SE
Duderstadt, Michael Auburn-SE
Taylor, Jake Brigham Young-UT
Sorenson, Payton Brigham Young-UT
Burns, Janardan California-PC
Kao, Ryan California-PC
Prenot, Josh California-PC
Seliskar, Andrew California-PC
Murphy, Ryan California-PC
Lynch, Justin California-PC
Green, Connor California-PC
Gutierrez, Long California-PC
Williams, Trent California-PC
Coan, Kyle California-PC
Hoppe, Connor California-PC
Pebley, Jacob California-PC
Norman, Nick California-PC
Dezwirek, Jeremie California-PC
Sand, Carson California-PC
Thomas, Mike California-PC
Sikatzki, Philipp Cleveland State-LE
Evdokimov, Alex Cornell-NI
Robrock, Kyle Denver-CO
Loncar, Anton Denver-CO
Bunch, Dylan Denver-CO
Kropp, Peter Duke-NC
Henry, Andrew Eastern Mich-MI
Coombs, Jason Florida St-FL
Lawless, Ben Florida-FL
Werner, Pawel Florida-FL
D’Arrigo, Mitch Florida-FL
Switkowski, Jan Florida-FL
Szaranek, Mark Florida-FL
Dressel, Caeleb Florida-FL
Main, Corey Florida-FL
Lebed, Alex Florida-FL
Balogh, Brennan Florida-FL
Blyzinskyj, Jack Florida-FL
Frayler, Arthur Florida-FL
Manganiello, Austin Florida-FL
Lile, Nathan Gardner-Webb-NC
Bolognesi, Andrea George Washington-PV
Hammoud, Youssef Georgia Tech-GA
Kimpel, Alex Georgia Tech-GA
Loschi, Moises Georgia Tech-GA
Litherland, Kevin Georgia-GA
Koski, Matias Georgia-GA
Powell, Garrett Georgia-GA
Bentz, Gunnar Georgia-GA
Stewart, Ty Georgia-GA
Trice, Michael Georgia-GA
Litherland, Jay Georgia-GA
Clark, Pace Georgia-GA
Dale, Taylor Georgia-GA
Guest, James Georgia-GA
Brooks, Powell Georgia-GA
Litherland, Mick Georgia-GA
McNamara, Shane Harvard-NE
Irwin, Max Indiana-IN
Finnerty, Ian Indiana-IN
Lanza, Vinicius Indiana-IN
Khalafalla, Ali Indiana-IN
Pieroni, Blake Indiana-IN
Tavcar, Anze Indiana-IN
Kurz, Tanner Indiana-IN
Glover, Bob Indiana-IN
Taylor, Cody Indiana-IN
Trussov, Roman Iowa-IA
Greenhalgh, George Kentucky-KY
Higgins, Kyle Kentucky-KY
Tesone, Nolan Louisville-KY
Coutinho, Pedro Louisville-KY
Carroll, Trevor Louisville-KY
Lindenbauer, Matthias Louisville-KY
Claverie, Carlos Louisville-KY
Tarasevich, Grigory Louisville-KY
Greene, Aaron Louisville-KY
Harting, Zach Louisville-KY
Cono, Ben Loyola (MD)-MD
Rysemus, Logan LSU-LA
Linge, Alex LSU-LA
Nielsen, Anders Lie Michigan-MI
Ransford, PJ Michigan-MI
Bosch, Dylan Michigan-MI
White, Evan Michigan-MI
Brumm, Pete Michigan-MI
Powers, Paul Michigan-MI
Whitaker, Aaron Michigan-MI
Mangan, Jack Michigan-MI
Dudzinski, Kyle Michigan-MI
Sanders, Tristan Michigan-MI
Becker, Bowen Minnesota-MN
Maly, Jakub Minnesota-MN
McHugh, Conner Minnesota-MN
Osvath, Artur Missouri St. (M)-MV
Chadwick, Michael Missouri-MV
Sansoucie, Andrew Missouri-MV
Schreuders, Mikel Missouri-MV
Griffin, Carter Missouri-MV
Schwingenschlogl, Fabian Missouri-MV
Mapel, Eddie Missouri-MV
Groters, Jordy Missouri-MV
Ipsen, Anton Oerskov NC State-NC
Dahl, Soeren NC State-NC
Ress, Justin NC State-NC
Held, Ryan NC State-NC
Bilis, Simonas NC State-NC
Schiellerup, Andreas NC State-NC
Bonk, Joe NC State-NC
McCurdy, Christian NC State-NC
Snyder, Austin NC State-NC
Hren, Derek NC State-NC
Stuart, Hennessey NC State-NC
Linker, Adam NC State-NC
Plaschka, Justin Notre Dame-IN
Nowicki, Devon Oakland University-MI
McHugh, Matt Ohio St-OH
Macdonald, Dj Ohio St-OH
Lim, Ching Ohio St-OH
Seal, Brayden Ohio St-OH
Mathews, Reed Old Dominion (M)-VA
Peterson, Alex Penn-MA
Swanson, Chris Penn-MA
Andrew, Mark Penn-MA
Schultz, Eric Penn-MA
D’Alessandro, Teo Princeton-NJ
Hu-Van Wright, En-wei Princeton-NJ
Okubo, Corey Princeton-NJ
Amaltdinov, Marat Purdue-IN
Mahmoud, Akaram South Carolina-SC
Peribonio, Tom South Carolina-SC
Wich-Glasen, Nils South Carolina-SC
Bekemeyer, Cody South Carolina-SC
Malone, Reed Southern Cali-CA
Furtek, Pawel Southern Cali-CA
Mulcare, Patrick Southern Cali-CA
Valente, Alex Southern Cali-CA
Vissering, Carsten Southern Cali-CA
Tribuntsov, Ralf Southern Cali-CA
Singley, Ted Southern Cali-CA
Knox, Jon Southern Cali-CA
Stumph, Steven Southern Cali-CA
Egan, Liam Stanford-PC
Thomson, Danny Stanford-PC
Umbach, Gray Stanford-PC
DeVine, Abrahm Stanford-PC
Ogren, Curtis Stanford-PC
Williamson, Max Stanford-PC
Perry, Sam Stanford-PC
Black, Connor Stanford-PC
Liang, Andrew Stanford-PC
Dudzinski, Ryan Stanford-PC
Arata, Ryan Stanford-PC
Conaton, Patrick Stanford-PC
Anderson, Matthew Stanford-PC
Yoder, Jimmy Stanford-PC
Pinion, Evan Tennessee-SE
Decoursey, Kyle Tennessee-SE
McHugh, Sam Tennessee-SE
Stevens, Peter Tennessee-SE
Heron, David Tennessee-SE
Lehane, Sean Tennessee-SE
Browne, Ethan Tennessee-SE
Castillo Luna, Mauro Texas A&M-GU
Bonetti, Brock Texas A&M-GU
Lewis, Sam Texas-ST
Smith, Clark Texas-ST
Haas, Townley Texas-ST
Licon, Will Texas-ST
Harty, Ryan Texas-ST
Shebat, John Texas-ST
Jackson, Tate Texas-ST
Murray, John Texas-ST
Ringgold, Brett Texas-ST
Roberts, Jonathan Texas-ST
Martens, John Texas-ST
Schooling, Joseph Texas-ST
Conger, Jack Texas-ST
Glass, Will Texas-ST
Ellis, Matt Texas-ST
Dunne, Pj Texas-ST
Holter, Max Texas-ST
Duvall, Thomas U.S. Navy-MD
Campbell, Henry UNC-NC
Colley, Ben UNC-NC
Lewis, Sam UNC-NC
Graesser, Nic UNC-NC
Kiraly, Bence Univ of Utah-UT
Virva, Dillon UNLV (M)-CA
Semochkin, Pasha UNLV (M)-CA
Fiala, Brandon Virginia Tech-VA
Owen, Robert Virginia Tech-VA
Bureau, Lucas Virginia Tech-VA
Szabo, Norbert Virginia Tech-VA
Kaeser, Yannick Virginia-VA
Fong, Zach Virginia-VA
Marsh, Andrew West Virginia-WV
Hutchins, Matthew Wisconsin-WI
Pinfold, Brett Wisconsin-WI
Byrd, Austin Wisconsin-WI
Clifton, Cannon Wisconsin-WI
Hyogo, Kei Yale-CT
Hogan, Brian Yale-CT

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Swimmer

U put Manganiello has already qualified but he isn’t.

Wolfensf

You have Manganiello, Blake already qualified at 30 in the 1650 but I believe his brother is qualified not him.

James

How do relay swimmers count into the total of 235?

About Braden Keith

Braden Keith

Braden Keith is the Editor-in-Chief and a co-founder of SwimSwam.com. He first got his feet wet by building The Swimmers' Circle beginning in January 2010, and now comes to SwimSwam to use that experience and help build a new leader in the sport of swimming. Aside from his life on the InterWet, …

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