How Fast Will Michael Andrew Swim at Olympic Trials?

Gold Medal Minute presented by SwimOutlet.comMichael Andrew turned a lot of heads at the Indy Pro Swim, dropping:

  • 58.6 – 100m breast
  • 50.8 – 100m fly
  • 1:56.8 – 200m IM

I was surprised. Frankly, I didn’t see Michael as the favorite in two events heading into U.S. Olympic Trials.  I think, like a lot of swimming fans, I was lulled into a bit of a sleep after after his 2020 ISL season.  I expected a little more from him last fall and winter. Now, in hindsight, that feels like a harsh judgment considering everyone reacted differently to the pandemic last year.

I am glad I was wrong. I’ve been a Michael Andrew fan since his age group days–back when everyone lost their minds over his turning pro at the tender age of 14.

2021 Michael Andrew U.S. Olympic Trials Predictions

As mentioned above, I wasn’t bullish on Michael Andrew making the Olympic Team. I thought he’d be on the bubble. I’m confident now. I think he’s making his first Olympic Team. I see him winning the 100m breast in 58.3, breaking the American record.

Will he make it in the 200 IM, 100 fly, or 50 free?

  • 1:55 point 9 – 200 IM – for 2nd or 3rd
  • 50 point 5 – 100 fly for 2nd, 3rd or 4th
  • 21 point 4 – 50 free for 2nd or 3rd

But who cares what I think. What do you think? Give me your best expert swimming analysis.

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This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by SwimOutlet.com. Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of SwimSwam.com, a Swimming News website.

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swimfan210_
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
5 months ago

If he swims the semis after the 200 IM finals, he could miss the final, so no double with the 50 free. However, I don’t think he should swim the 100 fly (except maybe just in prelims to get a time.)

Jack
Reply to  swimfan210_
5 months ago

I think Lochte did the 100 fly in 2013, but it did not conflict with the 200 IM that year. They had an unusual event order and he had 200 IM the day before and then doubled the 200 back final /100 fly semis the next day. He set a PB in that fly semi but didn’t match that time in finals and faded out of the medals. Had a pretty good split on the medley relay if I remember, though.

I *think* that was Lochte’s only time with the 100 fly. Trying, I think, to capitalize on the vacuum left by Phelps’ retirement. But once it became clear Phelps was coming back, he never came back to it.

Unknown Swimmer
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
5 months ago

If the fly semis are after the IM finals – why not give them a shot to see if he has anything left to get into finals? He can get into the fly semis pretty safely I’d imagine. And the fly wouldn’t impact a 50 as much – although admittedly a 50 has way less margin for error.

Carson Yoerger
5 months ago

His 50 free is gonna be slower for sure but I think this might be when we finally see him drop a huge 2im

Sebastian
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
5 months ago

He’s actually cut out the weight training again! And swimming faster than ever. And his “taper” is just cutting down a little on the USRPT sets.

Fresh Cuts
5 months ago

I don’t think he’ll swim fly. His event order is too heavy with it in there.

Swimfan
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
5 months ago

Yes not only make the team but to do his best in Tokyo. I’ve watched this young man since he was very young and the best think he did for his career was to start backing off his schedule a bit. We all know he can swim all 4 strokes but I’ve seen the piano hit him harder than most with a full schedule.event if he qualifies in 3 events I’ll be nervous. I think if he ends up with 2 events in Tokyo that would be ideal fir him… then maybe add more events in 2024. The goal for him is to medal in Tokyo not prove how many events he can qualify in.

SHARKSPEED
5 months ago

1:55 point 9 – 200 IM – for 2nd or 3rd!!??
Who do you think will be 1st, Chase Kalisz? With what time?
Love that prediction, if it happens will be awesome

There's no doubt that he's tightening up
Reply to  SHARKSPEED
5 months ago

A wild Ryan Lochte appears…

Virtus
Reply to  SHARKSPEED
5 months ago

Was thinking this too who tf gonna be faster than that

Jack
Reply to  Virtus
5 months ago

Lochte’s been 1:59 this year, and he’s only been faster than 1:59 in-season once, a couple months before the world record. I mean, I know he’s older, but he’s swimming more or less exactly like he always does in a year that he’s gonna go 1:54.8 or so with a taper. I would not at all be surprised to see some combination of Lochte and Kalisz ahead of Andrew.

Sqimgod
Reply to  SHARKSPEED
5 months ago

Ryan lochte probably

cobalt
Reply to  Sqimgod
5 months ago

On his breaststroke, Lochte uses a very quick dolphin kick on his trailing right leg (right after his breast kick.) He used to do it with both legs (racing Phelps) but now just the one. A big advantage….and he get’s away with it. MA would never do that…MA doesn’t cheat.

Anonymoose
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
5 months ago

did he lose that extra weight tho? dont think so :/

Pvdh
Reply to  Anonymoose
5 months ago

I think he has. He looked pretty chubby in 2019. Now he looks like his early 2010s shape.

Ol' Longhorn
Reply to  Anonymoose
5 months ago

Sympathetic pregnancy weight gain.

Ol' Longhorn
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
5 months ago

Yeah, but also 2 years older and at an age where every year is a typically a decline. If he’d been a fat 1:57 last year, I’d say 1:55 mid to low. Still hope he makes it,

Mark Torres
Reply to  SHARKSPEED
5 months ago

What about Casas in 2 IM? He almost got Dressel’s SCY record in season! I Haven’t seen him swim LC IM.

StuartC
5 months ago

The biggest issue will be how much he rested for the Indy Pro Swim. Also he was swimming very mentally loose at Pro Swim. Will he tighten up at trials? I hope he makes it BUT it seems to me that fatigue is a real issue for him. Can he swim the 50 free, 100 breast and 200IM and 100 fly three times. We will know soon enough.

Ghost
Reply to  StuartC
5 months ago

Not sure about how much rest he gets, but he shaves at most Pro series meets

Ol' Longhorn
Reply to  StuartC
5 months ago

He was still surfing the week of Indy Pro Swim. He says he’s giving it up for taper.

Brower
5 months ago

I’m going to go out on a leap here and say he’s going to swim fast

phelps swims 200 breast rio
5 months ago

He’s been out like a rocket in the 200IM. What’s his 50 fly split been lately? around 24.0? Maybe he will surprise us and swim a more tactical race. In the end, however, a slower front half may not make much of a difference with his freestyle leg and total time. 200 IM I’m predicting a slower swim than Mel 1:56.7 100 fly 50.3. 100 breast 58.2

MTK
Reply to  phelps swims 200 breast rio
5 months ago

Yep, I think his freestyle shortcomings in the IM are more technical than anything – I don’t know if he can go 28.5 at the end of a 200 unless he cleans up his stroke a bit to allow him to swim fast at a middle distance rhythm with breathing.

Go Michael
5 months ago

fast

About Gold Medal Mel Stewart

Gold Medal Mel Stewart

MEL STEWART Jr., aka Gold Medal Mel, won three Olympic medals at the 1992 Olympic Games. Mel's best event was the 200 butterfly. He is a former World, American, and NCAA Record holder in the 200 butterfly. As a writer/producer and sports columnist, Mel has contributed to Yahoo Sports, Universal Sports, …

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