Dana Vollmer Wins Women’s 100 Fly Final; Coughlin 7th

  77 Braden Keith | June 26th, 2012 | Featured, News, Previews & Recaps, U.S. Olympic Trials

Check out our trials landing page as Garrett will be launching up interviews all night long with winners, losers, and the most interesting personalities of Omaha 2012.

Day 2 is starting up at the CenturyLink Center in Omaha, Nebraska, and 6 more spots will be given out to match the 6 we saw handed out on the first night of competition.

The theme of the first night of the meet was the dominance of the Florida Gators, taking 4 out of the 6 allotted spots. The theme of day 2 is yet to be revealed, though from the word “go” record watch will be on with Dana Vollmer’s 100 fly.

Women’s 100 Fly Final

Not heeding the advice of talking-heads around the swimming world, Dana Vollmer kept with her strategy of charging the first wall, and ended up splitting a 26.31 on the front-half of her 100 fly – a tenth faster even than her American Record from Monday. She wasn’t able to match the improvement on the back-half, however, and touched in 56.50 – slower than her 56.42 American Record in the race from the semifinals, but still faster than anybody else in the world has been this year or in textile.

As a result mostly of this three-meet run, she now has the three best times ever swum on American soil, the four best ever done in textile, and the Nine fastest ever done by an American. That’s a stunning record.

I think ultimately she made the right move not changing her strategy on the final day of the meet. She didn’t take the 55-second World Record that she wanted, but she made sure that she had the win in the race. There will be time for more records in London.

The battle for second was nerve-wrecking. Christine Magnuson took a similar kamikaze approach to the first 50, turning at 26.49. But it was defending Pan Ams Champion Claire Donahue who nailed the pacing just right. She finished with a better back-half than anybody else in this final, and took the second spot in 57.57. That’s a mid-major swimmer from Western Kentucky on the Olympic Team just one year out of college, which is an impressive turn of events. Donahue has a great start, but she doesn’t over-work the first 50.

Kathleen Hersey again looked great in this final; after a tough prelim, she’s put up two straight swims to catapult herself into her preferred 200 fly, where the final will be on Friday. I think there’s no way that anybody keeps her off of the team in that event – not with best times in this 100.

Kelsey Floyd swam valiantly in this 100 fly for 4th place in 58.22, and Elaine Breeden’s magic just ran out as she finished 5th in 58.43. Christine Magnuson ultimately faded all the way back to 6th, but the big story was Natalie Coughlin.

Coughlin was 7th in 58.66 – that makes one wonder now if the 1:00.7 she put up in the 100 back prelims was just her slow-playing, or if she’s really out of gas this year. Let the nail-biting begin.

Texas A&M’s Caroline McElhaney, swimming in her first Olympic Trials final, was 8th in 58.87 – a bit off of where she’d been in the earlier rounds.

Men’s 200 Free Semifinal

The focus of the swim-stadium was on the second semifinal race of this men’s 200 free. That’s where Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps raced a huge 50 after a 150-meter warmup, and Ricky Berens also contended.

But that will be the story for tomorrow’s finals session. The story for tonight’s semi-final is Peter Vanderkaay finishing 9th in the first semi-final in 1:48.12. You never want to make a negative story the first story in a meet where there’s so many positives like this, but unless USA Swimming makes an exception and puts him on the 800 free relay anyway (and he swims better for that matter), this is the first huge blow to the US Team as a whole.

Coming into the meet, it would’ve been foolish to predict that outcome, however after his 400 free on Monday, it is honestly not a huge surprise. He won that race, but wasn’t spectacular in that race.

Back to the positives, Lochte and Phelps were again cruising through the first 150 meters, and again ripped off of the last wall. But in a sort of reversal of fortune from what we’ve seen for the last decade, Lochte beat Phelps at his own game and took this win at the final turn. Lochte took first in 1:46.25 and Phelps was second in 1:46.27. For Phelps, that’s still not a best time even in 2012, and Lochte is capable of much better as well. You’ll know there’s special swims coming in the final if, at that last turn, the two are around a 1:18.0 or better. Then it’s game-on for the 1:44.

Conor Dwyer continued an impressive run with a 1:47.38 for the 3rd seed, just out-touching Ricky Berens in his same heat in by a tenth. Berens is the 5th seed headed into finals with a 1:47.49. Surprisingly, that wasn’t even a best time for Dwyer – he was .03 better at nationals in 2010. That means he’s got something left in his bag in finals.

Also finishing in the top 5 was Matt McLean, who to be specific was 4th. He, unlike Vanderkaay, has been able to turn things around from his weak 400 on Monday; then again, he and Davis Tarwater (7th – 1:47.91) were the only two who didn’t have to swim a second round of the 400 free.

Charlie Houchin (1:47.69 – 6th) and Michael Klueh (1:48.09 – 8th).

Women’s 100 Breast Semifinal

Rebecca Soni stepped-up the pace going out in the women’s 100 breaststroke semifinal, recognizing after the morning that everyone was contented to go out as hard as they could. She split a 31.57 on the first 50 meters (6-tenths better than this morning) and ended up touching for the fastest swim in 1:05.82. That just bests her time from Charlotte as number one in the world this year, though with how dominant she’s been over-and-over, that’s not even a shock anymore. She’s got more to give on Wednesday in the finals.

Meanwhile, Breeja Larson came back to the field and touched in only 1:00.70. That’s still better than she had ever been coming into today. Meanwhile, Jessica Hardy (still not pushing the first 50 like she’s capable of) began to assert herself and took the second seed in 1:06.88. Still, the pressure is not fully off as Larson was faster than that in prelims.

Wisconsin’s Ashley Wanland also looked very good in this race, though she tightened up on the last few strokes, and will be the 4th seed in 1:07.23 – a new personal best for her.

It took an extremely fast time to make this final – a 1:07.70 from Emily McClellan was the 8th-and-final qualifier. That left names like Amanda Beard (1:07.92) and Annie Zhu (1:08.85) out of the final with very good times.

Men’s 100 Breast Semifinal

Brendan Hansen fixed whatever he didn’t like about his semi-final synchronization, and went even a hair faster in 59.68 to win the men’s 100 breaststroke and return for a third Olympic Games. This is a swim that many really wanted, and were really pulling for. Appropriately enough, and maybe in an act of reviving old rivalries, Japan’s Kosuke Kitajima was in the stands to watch this race.

Credit goes to 18-year old Kevin Cordes, who really took this race out hard, but fell to 1:00.58 for 3rd. Eric Shanteau, who has looked as fast as he ever has in terms of just “speed” this year, was 2nd in 1:00.15.

We also saw a few runs end in this final. Scott Weltz’s Cinderella charge came up short with a 1:00.68 leaving him 4th, and the legendary Mark Gangloff probably wrapped up his pro swimming career with a 1:00.74 for 5th. Both had great runs, and are to be admired for what they’ve done both this year (Weltz) and for the last decade (Gangloff).

Clark Burckle was 7th in 1:00.81. That may not seem like a notable result, however at this meet he’s lowered his personal best by half-a-second. He will feel really good going into his 200 with that.

Women’s 400 Free Final

In the words of USA Swimming’s premier commentator Mike Gustafson (@mikelgustafson), anybody who thinks that Bob Bowman is a one-trick pony with Michael Phelps, examine Allison Schmitt.

The whole of the CenturyLink center was on their feet as Schmitt held under World Record pace for the first 200 meters. Of course, that’s a World Record set by Italy’s Federica Pellegrini where she very-nearly even-split it. That means that Pellegrini didn’t go out very hard, but she did close in under two minutes (1:59.7 to be exact). Schmitt only closed this race in 2:02.4

Schmitt didn’t hold onto her record-blistering pace, and Mission Viejo’s Chloe Sutton looked fantastic on the last 50, but Allison did hold on for the win in 4:02.84.

There was a lot of concern in the swimming fandom about Chloe Sutton headed into this meet, and it looks like she’s finally hitting her first-ever pool taper. She fought off a valiant charge from the youngster Katie Ledecky around the 325-meter mark and won in 4:04.18 – a best time by over a second. That duel between those two (with a little Kate Ziegler thrown in) in the 800 should get even better.

Ledecky was 3rd in 4:05.00 – which snapped a 24-year old National Age Group Record for 15-16’s, previously held by Janet Evans. Read more about that swim here.

NBAC’s Gillian Ryan took 4th in 4:07.27; a bit overshadowed by the 15-year old Ledecky, but she’s another bright young star as well. Elizabeth Beisel was 5th in 4:07.29 in an event where a lot of people were questioning why she swam it. Becca Mann was 6th in 4:08.95.

Men’s 100 Backstroke Semifinals

This men’s 100 backstroke semifinal was less exciting than the prelim – Matt Grevers came back to the field and touched in a 53.10 for the top seed. That’s just over a tenth slower than he was in prelims.

Meanwhile, the rest of the field closed the gap on him bigtime, with David Plummer taking 2nd in 53.24 and Nick Thoman 3rd in 53.40. Grevers has been the fastest throughout the first two rounds, but something tells me that this win won’t come easy for him. Thoman, moreso of any of them, looked very nervous in post-race interviews.

Ben Hesen continues to be a big surprise in 53.52.

Ryan Murphy continues to obliterate his National Age Group Records in the men’s 100 back, as he knocked another half-a-second off from prelims with a 53.76 for the 5th seed going into finals. I don’t think he can make the team, but he’s getting scary good. Coaches we’ve talked to have made comparisons to Aaron Peirsol at the same age, and have said that they see Murphy as the “real deal”. Jack Conger looked very good as well to get into the final 8th – he’s another one of the young men’s swimmers.

Women’s 100 Backstroke Semifinals

Missy Franklin and Rachel Bootsma have set up a great final in the women’s 100 back; Bootsma was a 59.10 in the 1st semi-final to break the National Age Group Record, which is faster than either she or Franklin had ever been. Franklin came back just after with a new personal best of her own in 59.06 to break the record again.

We could see two under 59-seconds tomorrow. We could see two not come close. But it’s going to be a great race.

And then there’s Natalie Coughlin, who was nowhere to be found in this race and slid through in 7th in 1:00.63. The questions will get even louder now: will Coughlin make the team? She’s done a lot for the sport, there’s no denying that. But from what we’ve seen so far, even a top-6 relay spot in the 100 free is no sure-thing at this point.

In the wake of Bootsma in the first heat, we can’t miss that Olivia Smoliga swam a 59.82 for the 3rd seed. She’s another high school swimmer, out of Illinois, in this top three, and becomes only the fourth 18 & under in history to go under a minute (behind only Franklin, Bootsma and Liz Pelton’s 59.99). That’s incredible.

Pelton was 4th here in just 1:00.31.

Also making the final was Jenny Connolly from Tennessee – Matt Kredich’s Volunteers have been having a great time in Omaha (Floyd was 4th in the 100 fly). Megan Romano was 5th in 1:00.61. Missy Franklin’s old high school rival, Bonnie Brandon, snuck in 8th in 1:00.76.

All of the day 2 results will be available here.

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77 Comments on "Dana Vollmer Wins Women’s 100 Fly Final; Coughlin 7th"


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troy
4 years 3 months ago

very good swim by claire with and outside lane to make the team. That is what olympic trials are all about

Nostradamus
4 years 3 months ago

an oops moment for Vanderkaay…

Josh
4 years 3 months ago

It is a tough break, but I would still bet dollars to donuts that his wealth of experience puts him on that prelim relay to swim for a night spot.

Nostradamus
4 years 3 months ago

I could see that. I don’t have a problem with resting all 4 of our night guys.

Ole 99
4 years 3 months ago

Just need to have established who the top 3 are if that’s the case. I’d like to see Dwyer or Berens go 46 low tomorrow.

Kirt
4 years 3 months ago

I say always leave one spot open, just in case a morning swimmer looks especially good.

Precious
4 years 3 months ago

Don’t forget that Greg Troy is the coach. I’m sure PVK will get a spot in the morning

Keith
4 years 3 months ago

It might depend on how well his individual 400 free goes on the first day, that will give the coaches an idea about his form.

Roger von Oech
4 years 3 months ago

A little history. In 1996 Oly trials, Jenny Thompson didn’t make top 6 in the Women’s 200 (she finished 7th). But she made the team by virtue of her top four finish in the 100 free, thus qualifying for the 4×100 free relay.

Her coach (and Women’s Head Coach) Richard Quick kept an open mind about putting her on the 4×200 free relay. Jenny swam well in the 4×100 relay at Atlanta. Quick ended up having Jenny anchor the 4×200 relay in the finals.

aswimfan
4 years 3 months ago

Anyone already on the team can be picked to swim in relays.

Nostradamus
4 years 3 months ago

Larson is so slow off of the blocks

4 years 3 months ago

I think it’s a tall girl thing.

Freebee
4 years 3 months ago

Garrett was right about Coughlin (her best chances are in the 100 free )

troy
4 years 3 months ago

Great Job by Rebbeca Soni 105…

Jean Michel
4 years 3 months ago

1.44 ofr Ryan and Michael is not so far ! i hope in the final , they real the 1.44 barrier …just to see how good they are …Conor Dwyer , excellent third .

aswimfan
4 years 3 months ago

Judging by their 400 IM swims, I don’t think Lochte and Phelps will break 1:44, at least not in Omaha, maybe in London.

Keith
4 years 3 months ago

Lochte is just going to try to touch out Phelps in each race.

aswimfan
4 years 3 months ago

That, I have no doubt of.

Inga
4 years 3 months ago

Why do they keep saying Hardy withdrew from last Olympics?Didn’t she test positive for clembuterol and had no choice?

aswimfan
4 years 3 months ago

Who said Hardy withdrew from last olympics?

Hardy was unceremoniously yanked off from the 2008 team after she tested positive, and it was so unfortunate that her place in the team was not replaced by the third finishers in the 50 free and 100 breast (Lara Jackson and Tara Kirk).

gatorfan
4 years 3 months ago

NBC and Rowdy keep saying she withdrew. And I am not 100% sure about Lara but I know they didn’t add Tara to the team, they just let Rebecca swim the 100.

gosharks
4 years 3 months ago

I’m pretty sure it was NBC’s Dan Hicks.

Swim Ma
4 years 3 months ago

Haven’t seen Scott Spann.Where is he?

Nostradamus
4 years 3 months ago

Retired

Josh
4 years 3 months ago

Spann retired last year. Shanteau and Hansen both are looking great for the 200 breast.

BMan
4 years 3 months ago

Unfortunate Weltz dropped a couple places. His best shot is the 2 breast though. He gave Kitajima a run for his money at Santa Clara this year.

aswimfan
4 years 3 months ago

Schmitt went out Kamikaze fast, 1:58.34
If only she could control her first half and goes out one second slower

Frank
4 years 3 months ago

chloe sutton with a olympic team good for her. A lot of people did not think she could do it

junker23
4 years 3 months ago

I always knew she had it in her. She is a cinema. I could watch her forever, really.

Forest
4 years 3 months ago

Ryan Murphy 3rd going into the final….impressive to be 16 and the fact that his 2 back is better

Ole 99
4 years 3 months ago

He’s 5th. Very impressive to be 16 and already going 53.76. He and Cordes give the US a pretty good future in the back and breast, respectively.

aswimfan
4 years 3 months ago

It is very very impressive.
Is he even better in 200 back?
if that is so, that could spell trouble for Clary, although I still think Clary will take the second spot.

Keith
4 years 3 months ago

His previous pb was 54.9 in the 100. His best in the 200 is 1:57. He should be down to the 1:55s at least.

aswimfan
4 years 3 months ago

That means he will, at the very least, smoke Peirsol’s 200 back 16yo age record of 1:57.03, set during 2000 oly trials.

ZYNG43
4 years 3 months ago

Murphy has had his sights set on this meet for a really long time. He is on top of it and as someone who has known ryan for a long time i’m confident he can go 1:55 AT LEAST. He may suprise everyone and will definetely be challenging for that 2nd spot in the 200 back, his best event.

don
4 years 3 months ago

You bring up a good point about PVK, I think he will be faster , a lot faster but it may take more than a couple weeks. He is definitely beat up which brings up how difficult it is when you switch teams and have an entire year of increased volume and different sets to contend with. Figure when he switched in Jan,’10 he had 3-4 months before taper then Worlds. After Worlds, it was 11 months of hard different training;look at his times from the previous yeasr, he had swims that were great in season swims but this last year has been rough. Kinda like Biesel at her first NCAA’s..rocky. Your body has to make adjustments and his will and he will be incredible, just might be on a different timetable.

junker23
4 years 3 months ago

Mostly unrelated to the gist of your comment, I don’t think Beisel tapered much at all for NCAAs.

don
4 years 3 months ago

I think you are missing the point and there is no criticism at all. I am talking about 2011 NCAAs and how it takes time to get used to an entire year new training, especially a year of LC .

junker23
4 years 3 months ago

Oh yeah yeah yeah whoopsie daisies.

aswimfan
4 years 3 months ago

Boostma in 59.10!!

Coughlin better hope she can get the 100 free relay spot

Forest
4 years 3 months ago

and a 59.0 by Franklin

junker23
4 years 3 months ago

Yeah, Coughlin’s not looking too great. Which is a bummer.

Forest
4 years 3 months ago

scratch that he got 5th but still had a very impressive 53.76

aswimfan
4 years 3 months ago

Franklin answered back in 59.06!!

These two Franklin and Boostma keep pushing each other. Fanstastic!

The women 100 back in London will be such fireworks!!

aswimfan
4 years 3 months ago

Coughlin just made it in 7th place!!

It is still premature, but I guess she can kiss goodbye to the ambition of becoming the third female to win an indvidual event in three consecutive olympics.

This just goes to show how EXTREMELY hard it is to do the feat, and show how amazing swimmers Dawn Fraser and Kriztina Egerzegi were!

gosharks
4 years 3 months ago

I’m pretty sure that Franklin beat Coughlin to 15 meters… and it wasn’t because Franklin’s underwaters have improved. What is going on with Coughlin?

aswimfan
4 years 3 months ago

Are you sure ?

First 50m:
Franklin 29.17
Coughlin 29.48

Unless Coughlin on top water speed is faster than Franklin (and In doubt it), it doesn’t seem Franklin beat Coughlin to the first 15m.

gosharks
4 years 3 months ago

The splits you posted do not support your comment.

gosharks
4 years 3 months ago

I just re-watched the race online, and Coughlin was, in fact, about one “head” in front of Franklin at 15m. But Coughlin just didn’t have it anywhere in that race. At least in the fly she went out with Vollmer and Donahue, but in the backstroke, no spark. I hope she regroups tonight.

John Sampson
4 years 3 months ago

This makes me nervous, coughlin deserves to be (do not fight back saying others do as well, I get that they do) on that team…matter of fact the sport of swimming needs coughlin to be there.

Franklin is on fire…hopefully she won’t be too tired from the 200 free semis.
No one has mentioned Olivia smoglia yet! 59.8 is a HUGE time! Can’t wait for the final tomorrow.

Dan
4 years 3 months ago

How does she deserve to be on the team if she finishes 7th in fly and barely makes semis in back? She WAS great. But is not great now. Only the fastest deserve to be on the team. We can’t reward for the past can we?

John Sampson
4 years 3 months ago

She has had a lot of success, and maybe your right that the coughlin era has reached it’s end but I think the world of swimming needs her there..it’ll take a lot of pressure (which Natalie can handle) off of Missy and other upping comers. I am a HUGE coughlin fan and I am not ready to throw in the towel. She will be on the London squad .

Dan
4 years 3 months ago

I admit I am indifferent on Coughlin and always have been. But she goes to London only if she is 6th or better in 100 free. I have my doubts she has the speed. I think everyone knows now she is not managing her swims to peak for finals. For whatever reason, neither the top end nor finishing speed is there.

USSwimfan
4 years 3 months ago

Aswimfan- Coughlin is still one of the greatest ambassadors for this sport. I have frequently read your posts and I understand why you don’t want Natalie to succeed since she would join the elite company that you mentioned but she is still one of the all time greats regardless of what happens.
I hope she can assist our women’s team this summer and continue to promote the sport to millions of American fans who otherwise wouldn’t care about swimming.
Seebohm and your Aussies better be prepared because the Americans will have a fresh and young squad come London. I still expect exceptional results even if our 11 time medalist can’t contribute.

aswimfan
4 years 3 months ago

USSWIMFAN,

Never I said or implied or hoped that Coughlin fail to do the threepeat.
You are assuming a LOT of things. I actually admire Coughlin and I follow her twitter.

Also, you assume wrongly again when you said:
“Seebohm and your Aussies”

I am not an aussie LOL. far from it.

I am neither an american nor aussie and I don’t reside in USA or Australia (website admin can attest to this), but I am just a HUUGE swimming fan who has been constantly following swimming for almost 20 years.

So please do not be overly sensitive when I am making neutral remarks or observations about swimmers who you are a big fan of
🙂

USSwimfan
4 years 3 months ago

Aswimfan- I’m an American fan first and foremost and a Natalie fan after that. The OT is putting together our best team possible and if Natalie can’t qualify – so be it.
However, as an American swim fan, I appreciate the accomplishments and history that she has contributed to our sport and the US team. Her training methods and balanced approach to this sport are healthy and refreshing.
I commend her and Teri for their philosophy and I will admit, that i will come to Natalie’s defense when I perceived that you were pleased that she could not accomplish the three-peat. .

Rafael
4 years 3 months ago

US

Swimming is getting More and More competitive worldwide, if you don´t really push hard, it will be much harder to get somewhere now than 4 8 years ago..

Her Philosophy can be commendable? Ok.. but today (and in the future it will get much worse) or you live for swimming or you won´t get what you want because there are more and more people doing that (Living for Swimming)

She had her choice, and each choice has it own costs..

blee
4 years 3 months ago

Yeah, it’s a bummer that Coughlin isn’t swimming faster. She hasn’t looked good all season. Maybe it’s just age catching up to her. She’s almost 30 and her body just isn’t the same anymore. Whether or not she makes the team, she’s had an incredible career and will go down as one of the sport’s greats.

aswimfan
4 years 3 months ago

This I agree. I think Coughlin is definitely the greatest american female swimmer in the past 20 years.

TX Swimmer
4 years 3 months ago

I think there is something wrong with Natalie. She clocked 59.12 at worlds! How could she have declined so badly within a space of less that 12 months! She clocked 59 low last year and has been swimming 1.00 in season.

FREEBEE
4 years 3 months ago

I do not personally know Coughlin or McKeever. We all know they are incredible and the best advocates of our sport. We adore them and they deserve it.

Is it possible that Coughlin’s training has become too specialized or borderline minimalist (too reliant on an old “base”)–to put it another way, you hear some elite swimmers saying “I’ll do whatever it takes” and Coughlin often emphasizes that she is only going to do what is immediately relevant–I won’t do this/or that because I am a veteran and I know what it takes–I guess what I am proposing is: is it possible that she has too much autonomy/authority and, despite Couglin’s wisdom and experience, McKeever needs to be less a partner and more of a coach? Of course, this is supremely general and speculation.

aswimfan
4 years 3 months ago

Just by following her tweets, I assume that Coughlin has very balanced life, and not too obsessed about swimming.

It is what it is.
As swimming fans, of course we would be disappointed if she does not get to defend her olympics title.

john26
4 years 3 months ago

Ryan Murphy sticking it to Thoman was one of the most unexpected things I’ve seen at this meet so far. 53.7 represents a 1.2 drop in his personal best in this event. We aren’t even sure that he’s done dropping time. Surely, there are at least 3 individuals in front of him that will make it extremely difficult to earn an individual spots, (I doubt anyone can see him drop another half second) But based on this drop in the 100 distance, he’s likely to drop at least 2 seconds in the 200back– which would put him around 1:55mid, which is quite conservative considering his preference for the longer distance.

That said, if Clary is not on game, watch for a huge upset.

—-

After the 100fly I felt that it was going to be extremely difficult for Coughlin to make the team, based on the form that she was showing.

However good Coughlin is… 1.5 second drop is IMMENSE. Even if she was holding back, you don’t drop a second going from semi to final, especially how tight that field was behind Franklin. Coughlin should’ve tried to separate earlier.

The one thing she’s going to have tomorrow that she didn’t have today was a strong first 50. Still, it is difficult for me to see her under 59.5 tomorrow, if this is the case, she better be hoping Bootsma has spun her wheels already and hoping for a Kirsty Coventry ’08 in the 100back final.

I suspect Franklin’s probably going to take it in a 58.8 maybe 58.7.

aswimfan
4 years 3 months ago

John26,

What do you think of Coughlin’s chances in 100 free?

I actually think (and this I am just assuming/predicting) she will have a much better 100 free form than what she has shown so far in 100 fly/back.

Unless there’s huge upset, I think she can still make the top 6 in 100 free.

john26
4 years 3 months ago

It’s really hard to say because it appears that her times this taper has been all over the place. In Charlotte her free/fly/back times wheres 54.5/58.8/60.8.

We’ve seen her give a 58.2 effort in the 100fly. Who really knows what happened in the 100fly event today, I have no idea whether she could’ve been under 58. Using the assumption that she’s dropped at least half a second in the 100fly, and the improved to due to an improvement in general stamina rather than more focus in one stroke, we’d be looking at a time similar to what she swam at worlds last summer.

However, the obvious flaw with this way of thinking is that that drop would put her 100back at 1:00.3, which is… well… probably good for 5th place tomorrow, if that.

I would say if if Coughlin doesn’t get down to the 59.8 area tomorrow in the 100back, its highly unlikely that she’d make the individual 100free spot. In addition, if you take a look at the 100free rankings this year, you will notice the heavy depth and the liklihood that it will take something in the 54.1 area just to make the top 6.

My guess is that Coughlin will have trouble beating 59.5 because no one drops 1.2 seconds in a 100 race, and because of that she’d probably looking at a time around her time from worlds +/- 2 tenths, which I feel is by far her best avenue onto the team atm unless Bootsma chokes

blee
4 years 3 months ago

My prediction is that Natalie Coughlin will not make the Olympic team.

Natalie is an incredibly consistent swimmer who does not drop a lot of time with taper. You can gauge a lot from her in-season swims.

In 2008, from the February Grand Prixs to the August Olympics, she was consistently throwing down 59 low-mids in the 100 Back. She was consistently swimming 53-mids in the 100 Free. In the 200 IM, she was 2:09 in-season and swam 2:10s at the Trials and Olympics. Even with tapering and shaving and the elevated excitement of Trials/Olympics, all of her swims tended to be within a 1 second range.

Fast forward to 2012… She has raced a lot and we have a lot of data points to work with. From the Grand Prixs to the Olympic Trials, there seems to be a pattern to her swims: 58-mid in the 100 Fly, 1:00-mid in the 100 Back, 54-mid in the 100 Free. At Trials so far, she has not disproven this pattern.

So my guess is that Natalie will be around 54-mid in the 100 Free. Franklin, Vollmer and Schmitt have demonstrated that they are on their game and I’d be shocked if they weren’t all under 54. Hardy looks decent so far. Haven’t seen anything from Lia Neal, but she’s young and has the capacity to drop serious time. Throw in Megan Romano or Amanda Weir and it could spell some serious trouble for Natalie..

aswimfan
4 years 3 months ago

Thanks for the analyses.

It sounds logical, but my sentimental side still wants her on the team, and therefore I predict (or rather, hoping) that she bucks her own pattern and be relatively better in the 100 free.

blee
4 years 3 months ago

I would love to see Ryan Murphy make the team in the 100 Back. I’ve always been a huge Aaron Peirsol fan, so it’s really exciting to see a swimmer who resembles him – low-key demeanor, steadily improving, and most importantly, CLUTCH. Grevers, Thoman and Plummer are great 100 backstrokers, but they are not going to build a dynasty. If Ryan Murphy is “the real thing,” he could become the world’s dominant backstroker of the next two Olympic cycles. Now, that would be a great story to emerge from these Trials.

ZYNG43
4 years 3 months ago

I think he has a really decent chance in the 200 backstroke

Ole 99
4 years 3 months ago

Murphy certainly has the opportunity. It looks like its going to take around a 53.0 to make the team. I don’t see Grevers, Plummer or Thoman going much faster than that based on what we’ve seen so far.

ZYNG43
4 years 3 months ago

I see him going 53 low but it all depends on how those guys do in the final. Either way hes been incredible to watch already

bobo gigi
4 years 3 months ago

If Missy swims 58.8 or 58.7 in the 100 back just 20 minutes after her 200 free (I still hope she doesn’t swim it) I think other backstrokers in the world can retire from the sport. It would be huge.

aswimfan
4 years 3 months ago

I believe Missy can definitely swim 58.7-58.8 even after the 200 free

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