Could Open Water Swimming Be on the Chopping Blocks for the Brisbane Olympics?

As the International Olympic Committee (IOC) convened in Lausanne, Switzerland for its Executive Board meeting last week, Kyodo News reported on a series of leaks about the future of the Olympic Games. The paper cited unnamed sources that the Brisbane 2032 Olympic Games are “set to undergo a significant reduction in the number of sports due to financial concerns, and even some of the sports retained could have some of their disciplines or events cut.”

The number of sports at the summer Olympic Games has been growing for the past several editions. After only 26 sports were on the program at London 2012, there were 28 at Rio 2016 (a return to the number in 2000, 2004, and 2008), then 33 at Tokyo 2020 and 32 for Paris 2024. The Los Angeles 2028 Games are set to feature a record 36 sports. Six sports—baseball/softball, flag football, cricket, lacrosse, and squash—were added for the upcoming Games, in addition to adding new events in established sports, like the stroke 50s.

“I do think the size will change,” IOC president Kirsty Coventry acknowledged at a Switzerland press conference last week. “We don’t expect to see 36 sports.”

This IOC Executive Board meeting was not the first hint that the Brisbane 2032 Olympic program would see a shakeup. Coventry warned “difficult decisions” are ahead during the IOC’s February session in Milan.

“We have to be honest about what works and sometimes more importantly, what doesn’t,” Coventry said in Milan per ABC Australia. “It means we have to look at our sports, disciplines, and events with fresh eyes to make sure we are evolving with our times. We will have difficult decisions and conversations—that’s part of change. I know these discussions can be, and potentially will be, uncomfortable but they are essential if we are to keep the Games strong for generations to come.”

Creating The Program For An Olympic Games

The decisions about the initial Olympic sports program are decided during an International Olympic Committee (IOC) session seven years prior to the specific edition to the Games per Rule 45 of the Olympic Charter, with the Games’ Organizing Committee able to add additional new sports after the initial program is finalized. But last year, the IOC’s Executive Board exercised its right to postpone that decision, declaring that Brisbane’s initial program would be announced in 2026, six years before the Games’ opening.

At the time, the IOC cited “providing Brisbane 2032 additional time to work with delivery partners” and allowing the organizing committee to “collaborate with the IOC to further refine the approach to the sports programme” as the benefits to pushing the decision.

Coventry and the IOC are targeting “the final quarter of this year and, at the latest, the first months of next year” per Inside the Games. 

An Olympic program is broken down into sports, disciplines, and events. The IOC is interested in streamlining the number of sports for LA to Brisbane. But disciplines are also being assessed by an IOC working group, according to Inside the Games. The site also highlighted IOC Sports Director Pierre Ducrey‘s working definition of a discipline: “one or more events within a sport that will require their own competition space or a significant modification of a shared space, generally with a separate group of athletes. Under that definition, Paris 2024 is divided into 47 disciplines and Milano Cortina into 20.”

So, what sports–or disciplines–could be on the chopping block ahead of the Brisbane 2032 Games?

How Will These Cuts Affect Swimmers?

Pool swimming is not going anywhere. It is one of the major sports that drives the Games, along with sports like athletics and gymnastics. It is also a major medal strength of the host nation, Australia.

But a pool swimming-adjacent event, open water swimming, might be on the target list.

The Brisbane 2032 Organizing Committee and its president Andrew Liveris are aiming to learn from the 2026 Milano Cortina Games and deliver an Olympics with venues dispersed across Queensland. “The delivery plan, in essence, gave us nine locations,” Liveris said during the IOC’s Milan session. “The costing out of that [means] we have the bid budget and that bears no resemblance to reality.”

As the Brisbane 2032 Organizing Committee works with the IOC on a revised budget, open water swimming could be near the top of the target list, especially given Ducrey’s comments. Open water swimming often has its own venue; it was paired with triathlon for Paris 2024 but will be separate for LA2028, where the Brisbane 2032 Organizing Committee will be in attendance. It also has a low number of participants (44 in Paris), and is not a powerhouse event in terms of TV viewers. It is also a challenging event to generate ticket sales for because so much of the action happens outside the spectators view. Given the potential for a combination of low TV views and ticket sales, the IOC may view open water as too costly to stage.

While pool swimming certainly still be contested in Brisbane, it will be worth watching whether the event lineup stays the same. The stroke 50s could come back off the Olympic schedule and the mixed 4×100-meter medley relay remains an event with mixed reception.

Other Sports With Disciplines On The Chopping Block

Cycling could also see its disciplines paired down. BMX Freestyle, BMX Racing, and Mountain Bike are three cycling disciplines with less than 100 athletes competing at Los Angeles 2028. BMX Freestyle was introduced as a medal event for Tokyo 2020 and is is the newest of the three disciplines. It also has the fewest participants of these three disciplines at LA 2028. That said, the budget is an important piece of this equation for the IOC and the organizing committee. BMX Freestyle could be the easiest to stage of these three events because it takes place in a contained venue rather than on a larger circuit that introduces the need for additional security and athlete support.

Introduced in 1902, equestrian has a much longer history at the Olympic Games than the BMX and Mountain Bike events but still finds itself in a similar position to those disciplines. All three of Equestrian’s disciplines–Eventing, Dressage, and Jumping–have less than 100 athletes competing in LA. And like BMX Racing and Mountain Biking, Eventing is a more expensive event given its cross-country nature.

These Cycling and Equestrian disciplines are some of the prime examples of sports the IOC could deem too expensive given the number of athletes participating and the amount of revenue they generate. Other disciplines to keep an eye on could include 3×3 basketball, trampoline, and canoe slalom. There are pros and cons to all these disciplines from the IOC perspective. Though canoe slalom is small and requires its own venue, the IOC just added Jessica Fox, an Australian legend of the sport, as an athlete member. Her voice could be enough to keep the discipline on the schedule for her home Olympic Games.

What About The Sports Added For LA 2028?

It’s simple to think that the solution to the “too many sports” equation would be to start by getting rid of the six sports added for LA 2028 – certainly flag football, baseball, and softball, which seem to cater to the American hosts.

But the reality is more complicated. The NFL is heavily invested in flag football’s presence on the Olympic program and the league has been campaigning hard to stay on the schedule for Brisbane 2032. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell accompanied executives from the International Federation of American Football (IFAF) and American Football Australia to Queensland to meet with Brisbane 2032 stakeholders in April. Further, Inside The Games notes Australia “has become one of the league’s fastest-growing international territories, just ahead of the first NFL regular-season game in Melbourne” this fall. The country has also seen major growth in flag football participation and a push up the IFAF world rankings. The explosion of interest combined with the ease of fielding a match and the lobbying could keep it on the program beyond LA 2028.

Major League Baseball has also been making an international push. While it may not have reached the NFL’s level of popularity in Australia, Shohei Ohtani has driven a major explosion in league popularity in Japan. And while it’s a nine-hour flight from Tokyo to Brisbane, the time difference is only an hour, which would certainly help the TV ratings should baseball remain on the 2032 schedule.

Other Potential Targets

Like Equestrian, Modern Pentathlon first made its Olympic debut in 1912. The sport has changed for the Olympics over the years, most recently replacing the equestrian section with obstacle racing for LA 2028. The fact that it’s held at its own site makes it a target for the same reasons as open water swimming: it requires a very specific site not easily translatable to other sports and does not have a large number of athletes involved (only 64 for LA 2028).

Rowing has been a source of controversy for Brisbane 2032. Organizers have recommitted to holding the sport’s events on the Fitzroy River despite not yet receiving formal approval from World Rowing. The main concerns are the strong currents and the fact that it’s a natural habitat for saltwater crocodiles. Rowing also added Coastal Beach Sprints as a medal event for LA 2028, so expect that event to be under close scrutiny.

There are controversies boiling over in other sports as well. This week, Coventry and the International Fencing Federation (FIE) received an open letter signed by nearly 3,000 athletes and coaches requesting an “independent review of what they call ‘governance failures and corruption’ in the governing body.” Whether the fallout from the ongoing controversy affects the sport’s participation at Brisbane 2032 remains to be seen.

The Brisbane Olympic Games are slated for July 23 – August 8, 2032 with the Paralympic Games following from August 24 – September 5.