Anya Pelshaw, Madeline Folsom, Braden Keith, and James Sutherland contributed to this report.
It’s the beginning of the 2025-2026 NCAA season, which means that it’s time to make our early picks for who this season’s NCAA champions are going to be. As with last year, some of the SwimSwam staff debated who they think will win each event in March.
The midpoint of the Olympic quad is often when new names begin to emerge ahead of the next Games. Several key graduations last year—most notably Gretchen and Alex Walsh—have opened up events that were once straightforward picks.
Even so, there is still notable uniformity in our women’s selections: we agreed on 8 of 18 (44.4%) winners. While some races are now wide open, the women’s meet still has clear favorites in several events. Our consensus may also reflect early-season caution—we clearly don’t have much to go off of yet—along with uncertainty over how transfers and freshmen will adjust to new programs.
The staff unanimously agreed that Torri Huske will win three events, with all five of us choosing her for the 100 free and 100 fly. While there’s some disagreement on her third event, we all have her walking away with three individual golds. Virginia for both medley relays and the 400 free relay, and Stanford for the 800 free relay.
Everyone agreed that Virginia will win the 200 medley/400 medley/400 free relays, and we all have Stanford winning the 800 free relay. Other unanimous picks include Jillian Cox in the mile and Caroline Bricker in the 400 IM.
The 200 free relay is our only split pick, with James and Anya backing Louisville while Sean, Braden, and Madeline favor Virginia to defend its title. Virginia loses a key leg in G. Walsh but adds Italian World Junior Record holder Sara Curtis and Division II 50 free NCAA Record holder Bryn Greenwaldt, while Louisville returns three of four legs and brings in 21.62 50 freestyler Julie Mishler.
The biggest individual event disagreements came in the 50 free, 200 free, and 200 fly, with those three disciplines representing the only races where more than two different winners were chosen by our staff. The 50 free split comes from Madeline projecting Torri Huske to swim that race rather than the 200 IM, where she is the defending champion, while the rest of the staff is split between Louisville senior Julia Dennis (21.08) and Virginia junior Claire Curzan (21.11). Curzan out-touched Dennis for second at NCAAs last year by just nine-hundredths of a second.
In the 200 free, three of us have Cal freshman Claire Weinstein winning the race. She comes in with a personal best of 1:41.10, while Braden has Indiana freshman Alex Shackell (1:42.28) and Madeline has USC junior Minna Abraham (1:40.56) securing gold. While Abraham has a slightly faster career best, Weinstein defeated her by nearly three seconds at Short Course Worlds last December, which was her main focus meet of the season.
Nobody selected Michigan junior Stephanie Balduccini for the win, even though she owns a lifetime best of 1:40.89 and took third at last year’s NCAAs behind Abraham and the winner, now-graduated Anna Peplowski.
In the 200 fly, Braden and Sean have Shackell securing the win, and she enters the season as the fastest woman on paper since the two sub-1:50 swimmers of the past few years, Emma Sticklen and Alex Walsh, have graduated. Shackell is already on the cusp of that barrier with her 2023 personal best of 1:50.15.
James and Anya have tabbed Stanford sophomore Caroline Bricker to win, while Madeline picked Virginia junior Tess Howley. They were third and fourth respectively at last year’s championship, recording times of 1:51.55 and 1:51.79, and both have broken out in a big way in the long course pool this past summer with 2:05 clockings.
Without further ado, below are the ballots.
Some Potential Upsets/Hot Takes:
Madeline: Torri Huske has historically swum the 200 IM on day one, but Stanford has another swimmer in Caroline Bricker who can take home the title, and Huske has been shifting her focus to the sprint events internationally. I think she swims the 50 free and challenges Curzan for the title.
Braden: Kennedi Dobson had a huge senior season in high school and collected a sizable medal haul in middle-distance freestyle at the World Junior Championships. She seems built for the Georgia model. I think she’s got a shot at the 500 free NCAA title.
James: Claire Weinstein takes down at least one of Franklin’s 200 free record or Ledecky’s 500 free record.
I think Katie Grimes will win the 4IM. I know the history of Sandpipers in college, but I’m still thinking last year was just a hiccup adjustment year and she’ll be back to her old ways soon.
BRICKER IS THE GOAT THOUGH 💪💪
800 FR-R:
Stanford University graduated two of the four female swimmers from last season’s freestyle relay.
200 M-R, 400 M-R:
University of Virginia will finish third or fourth.
200 FR-R
University of Virginia will finish third or fourth.
400 FR-R, 800 FR-R:
University of Virginia will finish first.
Emma Weber will be the boat anchor on the medley relays for the University of Virginia. At least Carly Novelline held her own on the butterfly leg of the 200 M-R at the 2024 NCAA DI Women’s Swimming & Diving Championships. Lana Pudar is the wildcard on the butterfly leg of the 400 MR-R. If not Lana Pudar, then it’s down to Bailey Hartman or Carly Novelline.
Novelline, Hartman, and Mintenko all have been 51.5 for 100 fly
Pudar and Howley strong 200 flyers
will be interesting by ACCs and NCAAs to see who takes the fly legs on MRs
other unmentioned names i think could win titles: odell, padar, curtis, okaro, gorbenko, pudar, nc state medley relays
Would Curzan do the 100 fly/100 back double? She’s the only one that could realistically challenge Huske in the 100 fly. Hirai could be in the mix if she is able to start swimming in the spring
my 2 cents is that she obviously could swim the double and swim it well but it hurts her 100 back (she only beat bella by a hundredth with no double) and doesnt move the points needle much. her 50 free vs 100 fly chances are basically equivalent, maybe slightly higher in the 50 depending on who swims it. if i were her id take the more balanced schedule given shell have heavy relay duties
Bella Sims is not swimming at Michigan’s first meet.
Looks like she’s in Colorado Springs with Reagan Smith (per insta)
I think the entire National Team is in Colorado at the OTC and Golden Goggles.
I’m surprised no one picked Weinstein in the 1650 after she beat Cox in the 1500 at trials this summer, although I could see her swimming the 100 instead on the final day of NCAAs. I could see her getting the 200 free record, don’t know about Ledecky’s 500 record though
Braden why didn’t you pick Dobson to win the 500? I agree that she fits UGA’s wheelhouse and it wouldn’t surprise me.
Can’t wait for Torri to dominate now that she finally doesn’t have to deal with Walsh or Douglass.
To be fair, she did beat Alex in the 200 IM at two NCAAs
I was more speaking of Gretchen but her and Alex traded wins over the years