A Whole Lot of Talk, But Not Much Action on NCAA Realignment on Monday

In what is expected to be a zero-week for major NCAA conference realignment, especially for Division I programs located in the western United States, Monday kicked off festivities with the loudest non-stories we’ve heard yet.

First, four of the top targets for conferences seeking expansion, Memphis, Tulane, South Florida, and UTSA all agreed to stay and continue building the AAC in spite of being viewed as top targets of the rebuilt Pac-12. Of the four, only Tulane (women) has a swimming & diving program.

“Together, we are committed to continuing to build the American brand, exploring new opportunities for exposure and value, and developing innovative economic resources–all in service of our student-athletes. While we acknowledge receiving interest in our institutions from other conferences, we firmly believe that it is in our individual and collective best interests to uphold our commitment to each other.”

The conference is reportedly exploring private-equity, new distribution models and in fact expanding themselves, rather than contracting.

The Pac-12 offered projected annual revenue numbers of $10-$15 million, a five year Grant of Rights (which means that even if they leave, the conference still gets the rights to broadcast their home games), and partial coverage of an AAC exit fee that is expected to be around $25 million per school. AAC schools receive about $9 million per year, so even with increased revenue, it would take some time to pay out the remainder of the exit fee.

The Pac-12 was left with considerable assets after the departure of all but Washington State and Oregon State and is using that to lure in other partners, including the announcement two weeks ago that Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, and Colorado State would join for the 2026-2027 season. They are planning to pay the departure fee for those four schools, which totals $115 million, but those fees are almost-always reduced after negotiations.

It was more bad news for the Pac-12 after national college football reporter Brett McMurphy reported that Gonzaga joining the Pac-12 was a done deal, including a full revenue stake. That would be an interesting move because of the Pac-12’s deadline next summer to get to 8 football schools – with Gonzaga not sponsoring football.

Gonzaga has long been a prized target for conferences that value basketball as one of the best mid-major basketball programs in the country, including recent Final Fours in 2017 and 2021. No football makes them an interesting case, though, and they were reportedly being offered a full-revenue share even without a football program.

Shortly thereafter, though, almost every national college football reporter refuted those claims, saying that while the two programs are in deep conversations, the deal was not done yet.

Gonzaga does not sponsor a swimming & diving program.

McMurphy also reported that other Pac-12 targets were not jumping quite yet. He says that Air Force is remaining in the Mountain West. As the MWC school that drew the largest football audiences last season, that’s big as that conference tries to hold itself together. McMurphy then reported that UNLV and Utah State (the former has varsity swimming, the latter does not) are the Pac-12’s new top targets.

Needless to say, a lot of conversations are happening, a lot of things are going to change in the next few days (or minutes), and it’s beginning to feel like a Pac-12/Mountain West merger, probably under the Pac-12 brand, could be the best path forward for both conferences. Though, that has felt true for over a year and we are still in the same quagmire.

And in the most swimming specific news, three swimming programs have joined the Big West as affiliate members. Grand Canyon men and women, Seattle University men and women, and University of San Diego women will all join the Big West for next season’s Swimming & Diving Championships. Grand Canyon and Seattle University previously competed in the WAC and San Diego previously competed in the sport-specific Mountain Pacific Sports Federation (MPSF). The WAC is a pretty robust swim conference, last year home to 8 women’s and 6 men’s programs. It’s unclear what this signals for the remaining WAC programs or is a sign that others may be on the move (among them UNLV, Wyoming, and Air Force, all of which are in precarious positions right now).

If the Mountain West expands and finds more schools with men’s programs, then perhaps they launch a men’s championship and bring Air Force and Wyoming in-house.

I understand why basketball and football programs are going through this, but instability and smaller conferences feels like a bad thing for sports like swimming & diving.