The Progression of Young Trials Swimmers

One of the arguments for a large Olympic Trials is that it gives young swimmers experience at a national level meet. Since 1996 there have been 102 14 and under women and 19 15 and under men who participated in an Olympic Trials. All of them were excellent swimmers, but only a few developed into stars. 4 qualified for the Olympic Team at their first trials (Michael Phelps 2000, Amanda Beard 1996, Beth Botsford 1996, and Jilen Siroky 1996). Of those 4, only Phelps and Beard made another Olympics. 10 more ended up qualifying for the Olympics at a later Trials (Rachel Bootsma 2012,  Caroline Bruce 2004, Missy Franklin 2012, Diana Munz 2000/2004, Dana Vollmer 2004/2012, Kara Lynn Joyce 2004/2012, Lia Neal 2012, Amanda Weir 2004/2012, Rhi Jeffrey 2004, and Matt Grevers 2008/2012).

There were 25 young women and 7 young men at the 2012 Trials. Of the remaining 89 athletes who are old enough to have participated in multiple Trials, 14 have made an Olympic team, but 38 have never cracked the top 24 (some could this year. Kendyl Stewart is tentatively seeded 3rd in the 100 fly).  Any group where 16% makes the Olympic team is pretty elite, but 84% is a pretty high failure rate. As a comparison, there were 673 swimmers at the 2004 trials and there were 44 members of the 2004 Olympic team (60 counting future Olympians at the meet too). That’s 7% of Trials participants (or 9% counting future Olympians).

Since 2000, 127 different athletes have been on the Olympic Team. Of those, 12 (9%) swam at a Trials when they were 14 and under for women or 15 and under for men. In short, few young Trials swimmers make the Olympic Team, and few Olympic Team members swam at Trials when they were young.

Here are all the women who made their Trials debut as a 14 and under. The table includes the swimmer’s age when they first swam at Trials and their highest finish each year they swam at Trials.

Here are all the men who made their Trials debut as a 15 and under. The table includes the swimmer’s age when they first swam at Trials and their highest finish each year they swam at Trials.

A few contenders for this year’s team got 2012 Trials experience that they wouldn’t have with a smaller Trials. Caleb Dressel’s best finish in 2012 was 100th. Andrew Seliskar’s best seed was 50th.

Many of the young swimmers at the 2012 Trials placed outside the top 100 which was rare at Trials before 2012. Only time will tell if these lower ranked elite young swimmers will make the transition to elite senior swimmers at the same rate as their predecessors.