2026 Women’s NCAA Division I Championships: UVA Doubles Next Best Team (Day 3 Scoring Analysis)

by Spencer Penland 4

March 20th, 2026 College, News

2026 NCAA Division I Women’s Swimming and Diving Championships

Top 10 Teams After Night 3

  1. Virginia — 437.5
  2. Texas — 272
  3. Stanford — 242.5
  4. Tennessee — 240.5
  5. Michigan — 228
  6. California — 199
  7. Indiana — 176
  8. Louisville — 144.5
  9. NC State — 141.5
  10. Florida — 113.5

Day 3 of the 2026 Women’s NCAA Division I Swimming and Diving Championships is now in the books. Today was the day I personally had been waiting for: the day that Virginia was thoroughly dominant. They’d been leading the meet the whole way through and were well on their way to a 6th-straight title, but today was when they truly broke the meet open in the fashion we’ve been used to the past couple years. UVA racked up a stunning 188.5 points today, which was twice as many points as the next best team (Michigan). They’re now in the position where they could scratch out of tomorrow and still win the meet.

In the grand scheme of things, the battle for 2nd is still going strong, but Texas appears to be firmly in control there. A big final day by Stanford or Tennessee could theoretically be enough, but that’s mostly going to come down to however prelims goes tomorrow.

Here is a breakdown of how the top 20 teams fared today compared to their projected scores from the psych sheet. Please note this table has removed diving points from today, so the comparison is accurate. The table is sorted from highest point differential to lowest.

Team Projected Day 3 Actual Day 3 (No Diving) Difference
Virginia 157.5 188.5 31
Texas 57 76 19
Florida 35 51 16
Pitt 11 18 7
Alabama 23 27.5 4.5
California 62.5 66 3.5
Indiana 46 48 2
Wisconsin 26 27.5 1.5
Miami (FL) 0 0 0
South Carolina 0 0 0
Minnesota 0 0 0
Georgia 17 16 -1
NC State 71 65.5 -5.5
Louisville 72 65.5 -6.5
USC 13 4 -9
Tennessee 76 65 -11
Michigan 103.5 91 -12.5
Ohio State 14 0 -14
Duke 38 24 -14
Stanford 80 65.5 -14.5

Virginia not only had a huge day, but they actually overperformed projections by 31 points. Truly remarkable stuff from the Cavaliers.

Texas had a very good day, scoring 19 more points in the pool than they were seeded to. Once again, Florida has been very good versus their seed. The Gators’ efforts have paid off, as they enter the final day of the meet in 10th place.

An interesting case is Michigan. The Wolverines had their best day of the meet so far, having a finalist in each of the 4 individual events. They were the only team other than Virginia to do so. Michigan also capped the day with a 3rd place finish in the 400 medley relay, which is their highest relay finish of the meet so far. Despite that, Michigan was 12.5 points under their projected score for today. Overall, Michigan is riding a ton of momentum into Saturday, as they’re now sitting in 5th place, within striking distance of Tennessee and Stanford.

Speaking of, Stanford was the team with the biggest slip from their projections today. It wasn’t too much, just 14.5 points less than their seeded score, but the Cardinal had the worst differential out of the top 20 teams.

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Awsi Dooger
2 months ago

All of this numbers stuff is interesting. I’m a numbers person. But at the venue I’ve been stuck by the presence of Michigan fans. They were very loud tonight. Likewise the large group of Stanford fans.

Contrast to Texas fans, who show up in the corridors but are seldom if ever heard.

Tomek
2 months ago

Last year Virginia ended up with 544 points. They are very likely to do better this year.

Vaswammer
2 months ago

Top 10 teams — scoring through Friday night, compared to psych sheet scoring:

Florida +34.5
Texas +33.5
Virginia +21.5
Indiana +19.5
Cal +4*
Tennessee -3.5
Stanford -5.5
NC State -22.5
Louisville -42*
Michigan -48

*Relay DQ’ed

Last edited 2 months ago by Vaswammer
Walsh-Madden-Grimes-Weinstein
Reply to  Vaswammer
2 months ago

University of Virginia
Individual Scoring vs Psych Sheet
Grimes, K.: -11
Umstead, S.: -5
Hartman, B.: -2.5
Canny, A.: -2
Moesch, A.: -2
Gormsen, C.: -1

Note: Subject to further validation

Was it really worth swimming the 1650 FR?

Wet behind the ears freshmen get a pass.

Last edited 2 months ago by Walsh-Madden-Grimes-Weinstein