2016 Men’s NCAA Scoring Projections: Longhorns Likely Secure Title

2016 MEN’S NCAA CHAMPIONSHIPS

With six individuals and their 400 free relay slated to swim in A-finals tonight, the Texas Longhorns all but wrapped up their second straight NCAA title this morning.  The Longhorns didn’t have a particularly amazing session (they gained just 0.5 points from their seeds), but with their existing 95-point cushion, combined with more likely scoring from diving and the 1650, it was more than enough.

Cal continued their excellent meet with a solid 10.5-point bump from their seeds to likely lock up second place in the team standings, while Florida and NC State will have a tight battle for third place tonight.

Outside the top four, the Alabama Crimson Tide continued to roll coming off last night’s 200 medley relay, registering a 24.5-point gain.  SEC rival Georgia also put together another very good session, moving up 23 points from expectations.  On the the other end of the spectrum, Auburn fell nearly 50 points from their seeds.

The biggest movers on the session:

  • Trending up:
    • Alabama Crimson Tide: +24.5 points
    • Georgia Bulldogs: +23
    • Cal Golden Bears: +13.5
    • Louisville Cardinals: +13
    • Tennessee Volunteers: +12.5
  • Trending down:
    • Auburn Tigers: -48 points
    • Purdue Boilermakers: -16
    • NC State Wolfpack: -15
    • Ohio State Buckeyes: -13

Below is a full scoring update coming out of the Saturday morning session.  We’ve also included each teams’ psych sheet scoring to better represent how each particular team is performing relative to their seeds.  The final column shows–if seedings hold tonight–what each team’s new projected final score would be.

Teams Score thru Friday Sat. seeds (no 1650) Sat. Prelims Difference Sat. 1650 Psych final score Updated predicted final
Texas 366 125 125.5 +0.5 33 407.5 524.5
California 271 95.5 106 +10.5 0 279.5 377
Florida 255 58 61 +3 6 319.5 322
NC State 197 117 102 -15 11 377 310
Georgia 162 48 71 +23 0 146 233
Alabama 143 56.5 78 +21.5 0 179.5 221
Tennessee 152 14.5 27 +12.5 12 70.5 191
Indiana 113.5 66.5 56.5 -10 0 221.5 170
Missouri 140 30 30 0 0 124.5 170
Louisville 134.5 26 34 +8 0 151.5 168.5
Auburn 111 93 56 -37 0 283.5 167
Michigan 118 37.5 32 -5.5 16 223.5 166
Stanford 78.5 23 27 +4 12 109 117.5
USC 83 23 26 +3 0 115.5 109
Arizona 52 9 11 +2 5 79 68
Ohio St 66 14 1 -13 0 60 67
South Carolina 36 4 4 0 20 39 60
Virginia Tech 28.5 14 18 +4 0 58.5 46.5
Wisconsin 25 5.5 6 +0.5 15 39.5 46
Brigham Young 27 6 13 +7 0 23 40
Miami (FL) 31 0 0 0 0 0 31
Pittsburgh 31 0 0 0 0 0 31
Minnesota 18 2.5 3 +0.5 0 17.5 21
Penn 6 0 0 0 14 14 20
Purdue 3 16 16 0 0 16 19
UNC 16 5 0 -5 0 33 16
Air Force (M) 16 0 0 0 0 13 16
Cleveland State 15 0 0 0 0 6 15
Virginia 3 12 12 0 0 12 15
Oakland 13 0 0 0 0 0 13
Utah 9 0 0 0 4 5 13
Texas A&M 12 0 0 0 0 0 12
George Washington 11 0 0 0 0 1 11
UNLV 9 0 0 0 0 14 9
Cornell 0 9 9 0 0 9 9
Princeton 8 8 0 -8 0 21 8
Duke 7 0 0 0 0 15 7
Yale 0 0 0 0 7 7 7
LSU 6 0 0 0 0 14 6
Georgia Tech 5 0 0 0 0 0 5
Hawaii 5 0 0 0 0 0 5
Iowa 2 0 2 +2 0 13 4
Arizona St 0 4 3 -1 0 4 3
Penn State 2 0 0 0 0 0 2
Harvard 2 0 0 0 0 14 2
Notre Dame 0 6 0 -6 0 6 0
Denver 0 1.5 0 -1.5 0 1.5 0
West Virginia 0 0 0 0 0 12.5 0
Florida St 0 0 0 0 0 9 0

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swimz14
4 years ago

Looks like Michigan peaked for B1Gs/missed their taper 🙁

Suny Cal
4 years ago

I was also surprised to see MI so far down in the standings & all except 1 relay missing top 8!!!!

SokiBili
4 years ago

What’s up with Auburn – these aren’t the Tigers I’m used to watching at NCAAs

BearlyBreathing
Reply to  SokiBili
4 years ago

Auburn hasn’t been the one’s we’re used to for years now. Can’t/won’t guess why. Pretty steep drop off though from when they dominated almost every year.

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Morgan Priestley

A Stanford University and Birmingham, Michigan native, Morgan Priestley started writing for SwimSwam in February 2013 on a whim, and is loving that his tendency to follow and over-analyze swim results can finally be put to good use. Morgan swam competitively for 15+ years, primarily excelling in the mid-distance freestyles. While …

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