Late on Monday evening, the 2014 men’s pre-selection entry sheets were sent out, and while these don’t show officially where the cutoff lines will fall in individual races, it’s safe to presume that the top 16 are “locks” for NCAA Championship invites (we’ll do the math on where the number is expected to fall today).

See the pre-selection lists here.

We’ve gone ahead and scored the meet out based on where it would fall if the top 16 seeds fell exactly where they sit right now. While it’s far from a precise measurement, it does give fans a good idea of what their team needs to do, as compared to their seeds, to move up and win a title, a top 10 spot, etc.

One of the biggest limitations to this ranking is the lack of diving. That is being shored up this week, and even then seeds are fairly unreliable in diving, but we’ve denoted those teams that will be expecting a significant impact from their divers at NCAA’s with a (d).

Once again, for the second straight year, Florida and Michigan are seeded as the top two teams by points. Last year, Michigan was #1, and that carried them to an NCAA title. This year, it will be a much tighter battle. Anybody who wants to challenge those two teams is going to have to make some major moves; even Texas, with a potential of four or more scoring divers, will need their swimmers to outdo seed by several spots each in order to contend for the title.

A few rankings people might not have expected coming into the year:

  • Alabama sits 10th. They went big at SEC’s, and while there’s some skepticism about if they’ll be able to carry that taper to NCAA’s, it almost doesn’t matter in a ‘big picture’ sense. That program has turned a corner.
  • NC State comes in with the 3rd-most seeded points. Florida State has the 11th-most and a very good diving program. 2014 ACC Champion Virginia Tech is tied with in-state foes Virginia with 27 seeded points, and both hoping for diving contributions. Interesting twists in the ACC continue. NC State men this year remind you a little of the Tennessee women last year headed into NCAA’s, but without the divers.
  • Stanford is only seeded 17th and to have 43 swimming points. Led by Kristian Ipsen, they’ll cash in huge in diving and have a good chance at moving into the top 10, but that swimming depth just isn’t there like it used to be.
  • Cal, the Pac-12 Champions, are seeded only 4th going into NCAA’s. It would be a safe bet to peg them to out score their 252 seeded points, but can they make up the 140 to catch up to Michigan and Florida? Without diving it will be tough, but they’ve got more wiggle room in their relays, which can close that gap in a hurry if they’re able to leapfrog Michigan or Florida in any of them.
Team Seeded Points
1. Florida 391
2. Michigan 376
3. NC State 259
4. Cal 252
5. Auburn 234 (d)
6. Arizona 230 (d)
7. Georgia 204
8. Texas 165 (d+)
9. USC 157
10. Alabama 140
11. Florida St. 133 (d)
12. Indiana 130 (d+)
13. Tennessee 127 (d)
14. Ohio State 107 (d)
15. Louisville 102
16. Penn State 87
17. Stanford 43 (d+)
18. Wisconsin 39
19. Minnesota 37 (d)
20. Notre Dame 35
21. Texas A&M 32
22. UNLV 30
23. Virginia 27 (d)
24. Virginia Tech 27 (d)
25. Purdue 25 (d)
26. West Virginia 23
27. Brown 16
28. Utah 16 (d)
29. Northwestern 16
30. W. Kentucky 14
31. CSUB 12
32. UNC 12
33. Navy 10
34. Hawaii 9
35. Dartmouth 9
36. Yale 7
37. Penn 6
38. Wyoming 5
39. Arizona St. 5 (d)
40. Missouri 4 (d)
41. Georgia Tech 4
42. Denver 3
43. Harvard 3 (d)
44. South Carolina 2

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