Will Olympic Champion Nathan Adrian Make the 2021 U.S. Olympic Team?

Gold Medal Minute presented by SwimOutlet.comWill 5-time Olympic champion Nathan Adrian make the 2021 U.S. Olympic Team? It’s a fair question. He’s on the march toward his 4th U.S. Olympic Trials in Omaha, and I’m bullish on his performance for two reasons:

  1. Back at the 2019 World Championships, 5 months after recovering from cancer, Nathan anchored the men’s 4×100 free relay with a 47.08 — holding off Russia’s Evgeny Rylov to help Team USA to World Championship gold.
  2. At the recent Mission Pro Swim he dropped a 48.7 100m free, a very solid in-season swim after this trying COVID shutdown year.
I’m not sure he’ll make the U.S. Olympic Team individually, but I do see him on the 4×100 free relay, and I see him leading the U.S. Team as captain to a successful effort in Tokyo.
U.S. OLYMPIC TRIALS PREDICTIONS – MEN’S 100m FREE
Considering Nathan’s 2019 World Championship relay split, 47.08, and his 48.7 flat start swim at the recent Mission Pro Swim, I see him dipping under 48 seconds, dropping a 47.79 in the 100m free final.  I think that’s going to be 4th or 5th in the U.S. Trials final.  Nathan’s gone 48 in the 100m free more times than any human in history. He can dip under 48 seconds shaven and tapered from muscle-memory alone.  4th or 5th puts him on the relay, and at the Olympic Games, I think his experience will be what puts him on the 4×100 free relay at night in the Olympic final.  But who cares what I think. It’s all about what you think. Bring me your best expert swimming analysis.

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This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by SwimOutlet.com. Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of SwimSwam.com, a Swimming News website.

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Markster
24 days ago

He’ll be in top 6 for 100 free at trials and I think he’ll be selected for the finals relay in tokyo

25Backstroke
Reply to  Markster
24 days ago

I like Adrian, but realistically Held, Dressel, Apple, Pieroni are very likely to beat him, and Jackson, Rooney, Farris, Krueger are up there with a bunch of dark horses as well. I put his odds at 1/3, improbable but a decent chance

Mean Dean
24 days ago

I sincerely hope he does. I hope he gets that relay spot and gets a gold to end his career

Jasan Aghuilo
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
24 days ago

Do you know smth about Aleksey Tarasenko? This is 21 y.o.uzbekistan swimmer, which training in The University of Tennessee? I think he can beat Adrian in OG.

swimmerfromcali
Reply to  Jasan Aghuilo
24 days ago

I’m not Mel, but based off his recent times from Big Tens and his bests from a year or two ago, I’d say he probably couldn’t beat Nathan in Tokyo, if Nathan Makes the team (which I think he will). Although, if he does, great for him.

Jasan Aghuilo
Reply to  swimmerfromcali
24 days ago

Bro, this guy dropped 1,75 seconds in 3 days and hitted 48,55 100m free in Uzbekistan Olympic Trials 1 week ago. If he keep pushing like that, I think he may compete with other top swimmers. There are many haters that say like results are fake and some indian athlete dropped the video about corruption in Uzbekistan swimming federation, but i think it’s just jelaousy. Haters gonna hate. Let’s pray for Aleksey!

John
Reply to  Jasan Aghuilo
24 days ago

Pray for Aleksey? Does he need divine intervention to beat Adrian, likely!

JCO
24 days ago

Hard to see him beating out Dressel, Held, or Apple. I do believe he will be top 6, but there will be some young guys trying to knock him off for sure.

My top 8 (in order):
Dressel
Held
Apple
Farris
Adrian
Brooks Curry
Rooney
Pieroni

Next 8 (in no order):
Jackson
Haas
Krueger
Kibler
Conger
Matt King
Seliskar
Chadwick

JCO
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
24 days ago

I have a feeling that he’ll be much more focused on the 200 given the depth in the 100, and because of that, won’t have enough speed going out to make top 8 in the 100. Obviously most of us commentators have absolutely no idea where the focus is for these guys, but that’s just my gut feeling.

Hswimmer
Reply to  JCO
24 days ago

Rooney will be higher

swimgeek
Reply to  Hswimmer
24 days ago

Agreed. I don’t see Rooney missing top 6. Dude was a monster the last time anyone swam a championship LC meet (2019)

PhillyMark
Reply to  JCO
24 days ago

Hoping Hoffer has nice breakthrough in LCM. How about Robert Howard also….haven’t seen him swim in a bit but he was great @ WUG’s

PhillyMark
Reply to  JCO
24 days ago

Also, Kieran’s gotta be up there!

JCO
Reply to  PhillyMark
24 days ago

Somehow I completely missed Kieran. I’d probably put him on the lower side of the 9-16 group if he decides to focus on it. I am very bullish on him in the 200 and 400 though. I think he’ll be 1:44/1:45 low in the 200. Hoping we get a 3:42 out of him in the 400. USA needs someone to fill the middle distance gap right now, and I have a feeling Kieran and Magahey will be the two to carry USA middle distance into the spotlight.

Last edited 24 days ago by JCO
Chad
Reply to  JCO
24 days ago

Nice list. I think Rooney will be higher and I don’t think Curry will make the final. We’ll see if I eat my words (not my goggles though) in a couple months.

Dudeman
Reply to  JCO
24 days ago

I’m gonna blaspheme here and say that Dean is too high on that list and I firmly believe Pieroni will be top 6 given he was under 48 at 2019 World’s

swimfan210_
Reply to  JCO
24 days ago

Think Pieroni should be higher

ArtVanDeLegh10
Reply to  JCO
24 days ago

What about Adam Chaney?
He split 47.9 before he got to UF.
Once at UF he dropped 1.5 secs.

Blackflag82
Reply to  JCO
24 days ago

I think Dean at 4th is pretty reasonable since he’ll be swimming breaststroke to give everyone a sporting chance

GATOR CHOMP 🐊
Reply to  JCO
24 days ago

It’s so stacked

swimmerswammer
Reply to  JCO
24 days ago

chaney? i don’t know how he’ll fit in that mix but i still wouldn’t count him out

JCO
Reply to  swimmerswammer
24 days ago

Also missed Chaney. The depth in this event is unreal

Idk
Reply to  JCO
24 days ago

I think Rooney makes the team over curry and Farris is also throw smith in there based off his 200

aurelius
Reply to  JCO
24 days ago

…Justin Ress? Currently ranked 6th in the US…

About Gold Medal Mel Stewart

Gold Medal Mel Stewart

MEL STEWART Jr., aka Gold Medal Mel, won three Olympic medals at the 1992 Olympic Games. Mel's best event was the 200 butterfly. He is a former World, American, and NCAA Record holder in the 200 butterfly. As a writer/producer and sports columnist, Mel has contributed to Yahoo Sports, Universal Sports, …

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