Picks: Phelps Holds the Key to American 400 Free Relay

  40 Braden Keith | July 25th, 2012 | Featured, London 2012 Olympics, News, Previews & Recaps

With Olympic action officially underway Wednesday (women’s soccer kicked off, though the opening ceremonies aren’t until Friday), we bring you the second half of our 400 free relay preview: the men’s edition.

For all of our race-by-race previews, check out the category page. For all things Olympic, be sure to check out our London 2012 event channel, presented by the SwimOutlet Team Division.

1. Australia Actual: 3:11.00 Aggregate: 3:11.57

James Magnussen (47.10)
James Roberts (47.63)
Matthew Targett (48.32)
Eamon Sullivan (48.52)

Breakdown: Here’s what we know about this Australian relay: James Magnussen has been faster than anybody else in the world in textile, ever, in the 100 free. James Roberts has been faster than anybody not named James Magnussen, in textile, ever. The Australians were the only team at the World Championships last year that had four 47’s on their split-list. They probably won’t be the only ones to do so this year, but at the same time even that swim seems to pale compared to what we’ve seen from the Australians already this year.

In addition to the big two, Matt Targett looks great this year, and will have just one race to worry about: this one. There’s a bit of concern internationally that Roberts’ 47.6 was simply him riding Magnussen’s wake, but swimming from the front can’t hurt either. Here could be a hitch: The Australians won this relay last year over the French on some near-perfect exchanges. Their relay preparations haven’t been able to be as thorough this year thanks to different issues with illness. That could affect them.

2. USA Actual: 3:11.96 Aggregate: 3:13.14

Michael Phelps (48.08)
Matt Grevers (48.55)
Cullen Jones (48.46)
Nathan Adrian (48.05)

Breakdown: The Americans’ big hope in this relay since Omaha has been that Phelps is going to show up in finals and on the leadoff leg do something in the neighborhood of Magnussen. Fans have been saying it, and even his teammates have said it. He can certainly get into the 47’s, especially with the scratch of the 200 free, but it would be a tall order to get down to Magnussen’s 47.0 or 46-high on a flat-start. If the Americans want to catch the Aussies, they’re going to have to get more help from their middle legs, especially Grevers, and Nathan Adrian on an anchor. The French are certainly catchable, but with Agnel focusing on the sprints, I would speculate that he’s going to do something very, very impressive leading off this relay. Cullen Jones surprised a lot of people at Trials – but will need to do so again to keep this relay in the hunt.

Will Lochte swim this race instead of Jones? Opinions are flying, but at this point we have no idea. I think he can probably flat start better than a 48.5, but the coaches have given few/no hints. Jones or Grevers may have to swim prelims to hold Lochte off.

3. France Actual: 3:11.14 Aggregate; 3:13.00

Yannick Agnel (48.02)
Fabien Gilot (48.13)
Amaury Leveaux (48.48)
William Meynard (48.00)

Breakdown: This relay stepped-up big time at Worlds last year, thanks to solid, though not spectacular, relay starts and William Meynard coming through with a great 3rd leg of 47.3.  Meynard is an outstanding relay swimmer, especially as compared to his 49.1 flat-start this year. The French have a very tough decision to make as to whether or not he should be included in the finals group, despite not being close to the four-best French swimmers this year. They’re not going to win without the gamble, and I assume they’ll give him a chance to earn his spot in prelims. Leveaux, one would presume, will get a spot in finals given that he dropped the 200 free to focus on this relay.

 

4. Russia Actual: 3:12.99 Aggregate: 3:13.00

Evgeny Lagunov (48.23)
Andrey Grechin (48.29)
Nikita Lobintsev (48.21)
Danila Izotov (48.27)

Breakdown: This Russian relay has the luxury of being extremely balanced. There’s no other country in the world that can put up four swimmers with flat starts of 48.2 or better. This has both good and bad sides, though. Even when things aren’t going well (as they weren’t at Worlds last year), the relay doesn’t fall too far – they still placed 5th. Then again, there’s nobody to pick the relay up and put it on his back, carrying it to medal-winning glory. If Russia is swimming well, it could place as high as silver. Evgeny Lagunov has not been great since a 48.2 in 2010, and the Russians will have to decide if they might want to replace him with Vlad Morozov. Lagunov made a not-so-subtle statement that he wants to swim finals by scratching the individual 200 free, his only individual entry.

5. Brazil Actual: 3:14.65 Aggregate: 3:14.06

Cesar Cielo (47.84)
Bruno Fratus (48.72)
Marcelo Chierighini (48.79)
Nicolas Oliveira (48.71)

Breakdown: This relay may have contended for a medal last year had they made it through prelims. But they sat Cielo in the morning heats, which left them 9th and out of finals. They’re a bit better prepared to rest Cielo in prelims and still be safely through, though it would be a gamble none-the-less. Joao de Lucca is a far superior 5th to Marcos Macedo and the 50.3 he swam on a rolling start in prelims last year. The aggregate time for the Brazilians is not spectacular, but Oliveira is always a fantastic relay swimmer (usually dropping between .7 and 1.5 from his flat-start in a relay). Chierighini is training with Brett Hawke, who also trained Cielo during his huge developmental late teens and early 20’s; and Fratus is a young man waiting for his 100 to catch up to his 50.

6. South Africa Actual: 3:13.38 Aggregate: 3:14.83

Roland Schoeman (49.07)
Giedon Louw (48.74)
Darian Townsend (48.87)
Graeme Moore (48.15)

Breakdown: These South Africans swam out of their minds in this relay at Worlds last year, and actually sat 2nd through three legs. But on the anchor, they were notably absent of the veteran Roland Schoeman, who was inexplicably left off by the South African coaches. Leith Shankland wasn’t able to swim as well in finals as he did in prelims, and even Schoeman probably wouldn’t have been able to hold off Adrian and Gilot to grab a medal, but the South African’s very well could have finished 4th. Schoeman’s 50’s have been elite again this year, and if we presume that his 100’s are better, this year could put them back on the podium. A 48.1 or 48.2  on the leadoff from Roland will make this relay hard to fight off for bronze.

7. Italy Actual: 3:12.39 Aggregate: 3:15.28

Luca Dotto (48.24)
Marco Orsi (49.30)
Michele Santucci (49.38)
Filippo Magnini (48.36)

Breakdown: Unlike their medley, which was awesome at the European Championships, this free relay was just “good”, but nothing crazy in a 3:14.7. But this relay is very young – in order above, the first three are 22, 21, and 23, respectively, with the veteran and 2007 World co-champion Filippo Magnini, who is 30. That’s about the age where sprinters really come into their own (see Jimmy Feigen for an example). That’s why, despite not having great individual times, this Italian squad gets so much hype.

8. Germany Actual: 3:14.23 Aggregate: 3:34.75

Steffen Deibler (48.97)
Markus Deibler (48.88)
Paul Biedermann (48.66)
Marco di Carli (48.24)

Breakdown: This is a very good German relay. Part of their challenge will be choosing the true “best relay”. They made one big change between prelims and finals last year, and it added seven-tenths of a second to their time. The top German relay would include Paul Biedermann, but of course he has the 200 free semi’s earlier in the session. Though many around the world have scratched the 200 to focus on this relay, in reality there’s a decent gap of time between the two (probably close to an hour). Whichever four they end up choosing will have to be significantly better than they were at Germany’s Olympic Trials in May if this relay wants to even come close to a medal.

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40 Comments on "Picks: Phelps Holds the Key to American 400 Free Relay"


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3 years 9 months ago

Braden,
there is a chance Fratus will not swim 4×100 free even in final because his focus in 50 free.
In Prelims, Brazil will be opening with Nicholas dos Santos(expect a time between 48.9 and 49.1).I just wonder(if Fratus dont make the final), how CBDA will make the choice between Nicholas and De Lucca.Overall, De Lucca is better RELAYER than Dos Santos, but not by much.

Freeburg
3 years 9 months ago

Lochte will not be on the relay and I see no spectacular reason why he should be. Grevers is always a fan favorite but he doesn’t pull of the 100FR when it counts. Jones will be on the relay-he comes through. Berens–is solid. Adrian is really the key–he must be faster.

aswimfan
3 years 9 months ago

I concur. I can’t understand that there is even any discussion about including Lochte in the 4×100 free final. He will get to swim in the prelims, though. To boost his medal count.

Nostradamus
3 years 9 months ago

aswimfan
3 years 9 months ago

So apparently I Am now a hater just because I don’t think Lochte should be put in the relay final?

Nostradamus
3 years 9 months ago

i just think it’s funny how you continually show a lack of trust towards Lochte. I would definitely trust him on the relay over Grevers, Jones, and Berens. Remember how poorly Jones performed in 08? He got RUN DOWN! He split a 47.7 after swimming a 48.3 in the open at the trials. Grevers and Berens were both fully rested/tapered, They’re maxed out. Lochte isn’t. Phelps, Jones, and Adrian should be the three spots locked up. Then put Grevers, Berens, Lochte, and Feigan on the morning and get the fourth.

jean michel
3 years 9 months ago

hey bro , cool down > Lochte didn`t prepare himself especially for that relay nor
did he even got on the 3 best 100 us free times for the last 2 years . don`t assume anything wrong here . Phelps is the 100 free relay swimmer . keep your emotions relaxed . i love Lochte but he hqs nothing to do on that relay . have fun , nothing else

drdov
3 years 9 months ago

Magnussen will break 47, Phelps may be closer to him than we think
That’s the most exciting thing about MP, the man is realistically capable of anything

Des Cairns
3 years 9 months ago

Braden, what do you mean by the australians have had issues with illness this year. from what i’ve heard there numerous relay camps have been going great.

TX Swimmer
3 years 9 months ago

Lets hope Roberts 47.6 was a fluke. If it was not everyone else better worry about Silver and bronze. Unless Phelps flat starts 47.5 (Which will be hard to do a day after a very tough 400IM) France is actually looking better for silver here.
If MP clocks 47 mid or 47 low the USA may wanna consider using him as the Anchor on the medley relay. There is a very good chance Adrian as the anchor could get run down by Magnussen.

Rafael
3 years 9 months ago

even if Phelps was fully rested, he won´t go near 47,5…

aswimfan
3 years 9 months ago

I agree. Now that Phelps is really training for 400 IM, I doubt he’ll go 47.5
Even in Beijing, in LZR, he was only 47.5

john26
3 years 9 months ago

” Fans have been saying it, and even his teammates have said it. ”
when have his teammates been saying he’s going to this this? I feel that would’ve gotten major media attention.

An important thing to note about the Russian team is that they traditionally have had pretty bad changeovers (multiple 0.4s), which, really is the only reason I feel it’ll be difficult for them to medal. Though if this factor is correctly, they could surprise for silver.

Obviously, if you look around forums and blogs for people’s predictions– the general concensus is that Australia is the big favorite. You can “argue” that the same was said for France 4 years ago, and people are going to whine, pout and deliver patriotic speeches, but the fact is I’m sure if you done polls like this 4 years ago, even if most people thought France was going to win– it wasn’t to the degree to which Australia is favored this year.

The difference between Australia and the other teams right now is similar to the lead France had with the rest of the world going into 09. We all know what happened there, and so let that be clue as to what needs to happen for any team to upset the Aussie:

1) Everyone has to swim above expectation
2) More than one Aussie has to underperform.

Yes, MORE than one, I would argue that even if Roberts does not outsplit Targett or Sullivan, the lead built by Magnussen is still substantial. Adrian is America’s best hope in the sprints, but from an unbiased standpoint he has not shown himself to be on a different level of a sprinter than Targett or Sullivan. If one of those two outperforms him on anchor, I wouldn’t be completely shcoked.

3 years 9 months ago

john26,
i find very hard to Australia lose the gold medal.There is even a chance they beat WR.
Think about it:Magnussen open in 46.70,Roberts 46.80,Sullivan 47.50 and Targett 47.20.
Maybe is unlikely, but it s not impossible.

aswimfan
3 years 9 months ago

I doubt it. In fact, I don’t think Australia will go much faster than 3:10.00, but even 3:10 should be enough for gold methinks.

Nostradamus
3 years 9 months ago

47.0 from Magnussen, 47.2 relay from Roberts, 47.2’s from Sullivan/Mckevo, and a 47.2 from Targett. Those are the absolute most conservative splits I can see Australia going (off their paper results of course 🙂 so a 3:09. mid is a conservative guess. Unless you see Roberts going slower on a relay than he did in the open? Eemon and Matt have been in a top final before, so I think that they will be solid on the relay.

john26
3 years 9 months ago

I’ve thought about it. But I think for that to happen there is one key piece that needs to happen that many people dont really consider a possibility: Eamon Sullivan returning to ’08 shape.

if you consider the type of times swum in the lzrs, there were a bunch of people in the 47.5 to 48.0 area, and anyone that went 47.2 or faster in this suit was quite a stand out performance. I firmly believe that Sullivan’s 47.05, and maybe Bernard, too, were 47 swimmers even if you remove the suits.

If that situation unfolds– and lets face it, its not_impossible_– with, sullivan was going 48.5 with busted organs in 2010, it would not be shocking to me to see him dip under 48 on a flat start in the full health he is now. I have believed, since Beijing that he is one of the most gifted sprinters, one able to benefit from his relatively small framesize in the same way Ervin is able to.

If this scenario, whereAustralia has 4 men who are capable of 48.0 or faster on a flat start, unfolds I think is when we see a very good struggle with that red line. Also recall, even in the Beijing race, not all 4 Americans produced sub48 (flat start equivalent splits).

I think a very optimistic (but still within possibility) estimate is around 3:08.50. I disagree with aswimfan, I think the winning time will be closer to 3:09. Maybe 3:09.1 +/- 0.3

DutchWomen
3 years 9 months ago

Where are people getting a 47.5 lead off for Phelps? His BEST ever time is 47.5 in a rubber suit in the best shape of his life. Has anything he’s done last year or this year point to 47.5? Realistically?

Rafael
3 years 9 months ago

they are probably still hopping they have a shot for gold.

Unless the aussies screw up REAL BAD, no one has a chance, and even if they do, they have a HUGE margin for mistake and US can´t forget about FRA and RUS

swimmer
3 years 9 months ago

It’s the same hyperbole we had to endure pre us Olympic trials. Everyone was predicting crazy times. Chances are outside of magnussen we won’t see anything much different from
What we have seen the past year

john26
3 years 9 months ago

no. And even keeping in mind that Michael Phelps is, and has been my idol for over 4 years now– I would be kind of surprised if I was able to touch the wall 2nd off the leadoff.

john26
3 years 9 months ago

he*

Rafael
3 years 9 months ago

If all teams opened with their best swimmers.. Phelps would be 4th at best.. maybe at best 3rd.. he probably won´t be able to keep up with Magnussen Cielo and maybe Agnel..

drdov
3 years 9 months ago

It wasn’t a rubber suit!!!
It was a 50%textile suit with some polyurethane panels
Biederman and co wore the full air- trapping-bouyancy “rubber suit”

aswimfan
3 years 9 months ago

it was LZR, the same LZR that Sulllivan, Cielo, Bernard, etc wore in Beijing. And Phelps has never even approached his 47.5 since.

And in fact, Biedermann did not wore LZR in Beijing, he wore Adidas textile.

jean michel
3 years 9 months ago

And if Feigen was given the chance to perform in the prelims and goes like 47`90“, than the US could be given a new shift in the perspective and possibilities …with a solid Berens 48`10“ , Culen Jones 48`00 and Adrian 47`90“ …i am truly dreaming for a surprise coming from within the Us team members ..i didn`t even mention a solid Grevers in there . I feel they will surprise …in a way or another whatever the other teams do . I send joyfull prayers for a special prelim

Scuba Steve
3 years 9 months ago

Australia has been talking about using Magnussen in prelims to ‘dust off the cobwebs’. Problem is, who then gets a free ride to the final? McEvoy and D’Orsogna will get prelim swims, which leaves 1 spot for Targett/Roberts/Sullivan in the prelims. Sullivan was only about 0.05 ahead of McEvoy at trials, so hard to see him getting a free ride, BUT Roberts has never swum a relay final so should possibly have to prove himself. Also, It would not surprise me if McEvoy out-split Sullivan in the heats, which will give the selectors a headache.

I

DutchWomen
3 years 9 months ago

So I’ve heard some comments, but no one has told me how Phelps will split 47.5.

23.0 / 24.5? He was 23.31 / 24.20 to go 47.51 in 2008.

Rafael
3 years 9 months ago

23 flat 24.5 back is something I am expecting (and his coach also) Cielo to swim to fight for Bronze… but a front half like that (23 flat) is something a pure sprinter only can do…

john26
3 years 9 months ago

Phelps is not going to be able to go out in 23.0. So far this year, you can count on one hand the swimmers who have made it to the games on races where they’ve gone out under 23. I think to have the easy speed to go out that fast and still come back well under 25 is something you need to train for. Phelps is definitely not getting that easy speed training for the 400im.

Additionally, when he came back in 24.2, he was a 142.9 swimmer in the 200free, which he is no longer. ATM, I think a 47.8 will already be VERY solid swim for him.

Rafael
3 years 9 months ago

I would think if he could go 48 flat it would be amazing for him already…

Going sub 48 is harded than what people are making of.. It´s not because Mag can do it easily that going 48 is a easy thing now.

john26
3 years 9 months ago

@ Rafael, he is been 48flat or very close for several years now, so the expectation is that he’ll be faster given the focus he is giving to this event.

However, anyone who assumes that just because he has dropped the 200free to focus on this event doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to drop tenths from last year. Remember that the 4x100free was the first day last year, and he was COMPLETELY fresh. My expectation is that he’s probably going put up a 47.9 something similar was what he did at US trials 2008.

Yes 48s is still an incredibly difficult barrier to crack. I’ve beena huge proponent of the argument that just because Maggie did it doesn’t mean its easier for everyone else.

The thing you have to remember is that Phelps, is himself a talent like no other. The other thing is that you’ll have to remember that there were _Many_ athletes who were knocking on the doors of 48.00 last year. Near misses like Meynard, Cielo, Nathan, Phelps are sure to translate to breakthroughs given improved preparation or simply studying Magnussen’s race videos. It will be similar to how last year we saw an insane number of 1:00.0 in the 100breast, and this year we’re seeing a floodgate of 59s.

I would not be surprised to see 6 or more swimmers go under 48 this year.

Rafael
3 years 9 months ago

But he won´t be fresh for 100 free.. he didn´t have specific training for splash and dash.. and he has a HUGE battle in 400 IM with Locthe the day before

About sub-48 Swimmers.. I Would go as far as name the ones who will go

Certainly: Magnussen Cielo and Hayden
Huge Chance of Going: Roberts (see if 47.6 was a fluke or not) and Agnel.
Has a shot of: Adrian
Darkhorse: Hanser Garcia, maybe Moore Doto and Verschuren, but the last 3 I think are unlikely.

Tea
3 years 9 months ago

I love this race. You never know. Swimswam recently posted about the 1976 US women somehow knocked off East Germany. Men 2004… how many people picked South Africa? Men 2008/09…. US pulled the upset. Aussies are the huge favorite this time, but nerves get amped up, and this is one of the hardest races to predict. My guess for US path to gold is:

Phelps 47.4 (has been 48.0 the year or two. He’s probably more in 100 free shape than ever in his career)
Lochte 47.4 (he’s one of the only other wild cards in the US line up)
Feigen 47.8
Adrian 47.1

Aussies – blew their load at trials.
Magnussen 47.2
Targett 47.8
Sullivan 47.6
Roberts 47.3

Likely? No, but every big meet you see someone get amped up in this race with a shot of adrenaline that would wake up Uma Thurman in pulp fiction. And you see some others who let the pressure get to them.

aswimfan
3 years 9 months ago

Don’t forget Aussies beating USA in 2000, the first time ever USA lost men 4×100 free.

That was even bigger shock than 2008 actually. I wonder why many americans forget this race.

JackedAndTan
3 years 9 months ago

I love your analysis. Don’t get me wrong, those times could happen, but your reasoning is funny. “Blew their load at trials” Really? You think they’re still exhausted from a meet in March? You don’t think there’s a bigger chance the Americans are the ones who “blew their load” seeing they had to taper and peak just a month ago?

It always seems – in predictions like these – like Americans are the only ones capable of being passionate, feeling adrenaline, dealing with pressure and best of all, able to perform miracles. Oh, and no matter how many times it gets repeated, the 08 result was not an upset on paper

Tea
3 years 9 months ago

No Aussies are not still tired. Just maxed out for the year. Phelps and Lochte (if they use him – and they’ll need a wild card if they are going to win) still have big drops in them. I expect Adrian can go faster as well.

Those times aren’t a prediction. It’s just a plausible way that USA could pull off the upset. Again. Like in ’08.

Tea
3 years 9 months ago

The Aussies in 2000 (yes, I’ve tried to block that from my memory), and the team from Ariz…. I mean, South Africa… in 2004 definitely got all fired up. That’s what’s so great about this race – anyone can pull a rabbit out of a hat.

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About Braden Keith

Braden Keith

The most common question asked about Braden Keith is "when does he sleep?" That's because Braden has, in two years in the game, become one of the most prolific writers in swimming at a level that has earned him the nickname "the machine" in some circles. He first got his feet …

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