Olympic and World Champion distance swimming icon Katie Ledecky has the secret sauce, and it’s in the details of Stanford’s Olympic training camp. What I find most interesting is that during the pandemic Ledecky trained with teammate Simone Manuel, and often it was only the two of them, mano a mano. Image that. Team USA’s most celebrated distance star and sprint star training eye-to-eye. I think we’re going to see Ledecky swim well in the shorter events, 100 free and certainly 200 free. Ledecky has already dropped a 1:54 200m free in-season. And I think Simone’s 200 free will be very strong, netting her a spot on the U.S. Women’s Olympic 4×200 free relay.
U.S. OLYMPIC TRIALS KATIE LEDECKY PREDICTIONS – VERSION 2!
Yes. I’m playing again, because Ledecky made me look like a wimp in version 1. I was off. My last Trials prediction were:
1:54.5 – 200 free
3:59.1 – 400 free
8:09 – 800 free
15:29 – 1500 free
AND – I said she’s not likely to swim 100 free.
NEW PREDICTIONS
1:53.6 – 200 free
3:58.1 – 400 free
8:08 – 800 free
15:27 – 1500 free
And she swims 100 free in the prelims dropping a 53.7.
But who cares what I think? I want to know what you think? Give me your best expert swimming analysis.
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This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by SwimOutlet.com. Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of SwimSwam.com, a Swimming News website.
I think all the predictions are reasonable if not slightly aggressive.
Sadly Ledecky is far from peak shape in Tokyo.
Back to the prediction drawing board.
Manuel’s my sleeper for 2nd 200 free slot. Some of that pace work has to rub off on her. She was 156.0 in 2019, when there wasn’t even a qualifying meet
With manuel’s front end speed and training with Katie ledecky I have a feeling she’s gonna go 1:54.8 and be on the heals of ledecky. Thats the benefit of training with the best 200-400-800-1500 swimming in the world, and same with ledecky I have a feeling she gonna go 53.2 in the 100 training with Manuel
So far Manuel’s personal best was 1:56.06 shown almost two years ago. And yes, she competed against Ledecky in 200 SCY. But it looks that these extra 20 meters of 200 LCM and what is most important 4 extra walls of SCY make a huge difference.
To be a contender in the range 50-100-200 at the current level of competition in women swimming is a very rare feat. I know only one swimmer with such abilities. Sarah Sjostrom. But Manuel has beaten Sjostrom twice when it seemed to be impossible. Why not to do the same with this unique ability.
Anyway I will be very pleased to see Manuel and McLaughlin 1:55mid/low in Tokyo.
But so little… Read more »
The last 2 world championship years I always was beating against Manuel I didn’t expect her to win back to back gold’s in the 100 which was amazing… Now as far as her 200 she is very well capable of getting down to 1:54.9 she went faster than ledecky in the at the 100 at the olympic trials but faded to 7th.. at the olympic games McKeon went out faster than sjorstrom and ledecky but manage to hang on for bronze with a 154…Manuel is faster than McKeon in the 50 and the 100 it’s very plausible that she can put up a very good 200 at the same level as McKeon
Sorry for the delay with response. McKeon was 1:54.92 in final. I don’t think it will be even close for the third place in Tokyo and I would rather don’t speculate now about Manuel’s chances in individual event having practically zero information about her competitive conditions this season. But I agree with your arguments when comparing her to McKeon. In this scenario Americans may have advantage in competition between leaders of 4×200 relay:
(Ledecky, Manuel) vs (Titmus, McKeon).
Having much deeper field in 200FR American may complete the team with better swimmers than Australians.
There is little chance that USA beats Australia in the 4×200 though.
There Is little chance that ledecky beats titmus in the 800 free as well
Great video Mel. Either way no matter what event you look at she’s going to be well prepared and in deadly shape. I look forward to more of your videos, and the racing in July.
It would be very interesting to know if Ledecky maintains working relationship with Bruce Gemmel and if Greg Meehan discusses with him some aspects of Ledeccky’s preparation for OG.
Bruce did a wonderful job and he really cared about his famous student and not only because of the fame that comes with that. I have never seen before coaches in tears.
Surprisingly Ledecky doesn’t speak much about her coaches and their contributions to her success.
As other readers before me, I think you underestimate her time on the 100 (I put her at around 53.5) but I do not think she will show her other cards during Trials, so for the other races I’ll go with your first predictions.
It’s a no brainer to leave her off the women’s 4 x100 meter freestyle relay:
Personal Best Times
Manuel – 52.04
Comerford – 52.59
Weitzeil – 53.18
Brown – 53.42
Huske – 53.46
Walsh – 53.74
Ledecky – 53.75 (15 Jan 2016)
Ledecky split 53.83 (23 Jul 2017) in the women’s 4 x 100 meter freestyle relay at the 2017 FINA World Aquatics Championships. Ledecky of 2021 is not Ledecky from 2016.
2021 TYR Pro Swim Series
54.22 – April
54.74 – March
Weitzeil (53.68) absolutely smoked Ledecky (54.22) at the 2021 TYR Pro Swim – Mission Viejo.
Katie will swim some good times at the Olympic Trials because it’s an exciting meet and she will get some extra adrenaline and motivation from that.
The Olympics are a different story because Katie will have lots of competition in the 200. And Ariarne Titmus will try to stay with her in the 400 free and then we’ll find out who has done the best training.
A. Titmus’ coach says Ledecky’s name every day in practice to crack the whip so Ariarne never forgets for a second who she has to beat for that gold medal.
Well, May be Ariarna’s attitude has changed during this last year but it was very disrespectful toward Ledecky saying that she will be kind to Katie leaving for her 1500 distance because it is too boring for Ariarna. This year she sounds differently either because she is getting more mature and can appreciate what other swimmers do or maybe she realized that taking even one event from Katie’s super collection is titanic job to do. With all my admiration to Ledecky I don’t mind if Ariarna wins a gold medal. That is the Sport at the end. Under one small condition though. It should be better than Katie’s personal best. (i.e. world record). Otherwise I will consider that Titmus just… Read more »
So every swimmer who doesn’t break a world record to win gold against the world record holder is just lucky? There are a lot of “lucky” gold medal winners at the Olympics then.
Yep, a lot. Think of it. Just one week in four years. How it can be so representative. Does the Olympic medal count of let say Cate Campbell or Sarah Sjostrom is an accurate presentation of their achievements and position in women competitive swimming. A lot of luck and accidents.
One of the best example I know is the reaction of Penny Oleksiak on her gold medal. She didn’t even look at the score board after finishing the 100FR race. She was told that she is an Olympic Champion. Her immediate reaction was like it was a joke or mistake.
I don’t say it’s unfair.” That’s the life they’ve chosen”. But each sport fan has his/her own opinion about fairness and I am not an exception. 😀