Penny Oleksiak, Canada’s top sprint freestyler, announced yesterday that she was withdrawing from the 2025 World Championships due to a Whereabouts case with World Aquatics.
Oleksiak was the 50 and 100 freestyle Champion at last month’s Canadian Trials which means that she was a shoo-in for the women’s 400 freestyle relay. She was also a potential contender on the women’s 400 medley relay and the mixed 400 free and 400 medley. What do these relays look like without her?
Luckily, the four athletes who finished behind Oleksiak at Trials in the 100 freestyle are all on the Worlds team already. Taylor Ruck took 2nd, four tenths behind Oleksiak’s 54.03 at 54.41. Brooklyn Douthwright was 3rd (54.74); Ingrid Wilm finished 4th (55.15), and was 5th (55.17). The difference of the relay with vs without Oleksiak is about a second if we only use Trials times.
If we look at lifetime bests, Oleksiak comes in at 52.59, the Canadian record. Taylor Ruck has the 2nd fastest time at 52.72. Brooklyn Douthwright is next, quite a bit behind the other two, in 54.33. Sienna Angove has been 54.89 and Ingrid Wilm’s 55.15 at Trials was her lifetime best. This leaves a potential two-and-a-half second swing in the relay time.
Aggregate Relay Times
| With Oleksiak– Trials Times | With Oleksiak– Best Times | Without Oleksiak– Trials Times | Without Oleksiak– Best Times |
| 3:38.33 | 3:34.53 | 3:39.47 | 3:37.09 |
This analysis only accounts for athletes who swam the 100 freestyle at Canadian Trials, which leaves the best swimmer in the World right now out of the equation. Summer McIntosh didn’t swim the event last month, though she didn’t really have room in her packed schedule, but she regularly swims the relay at International meets. In Paris last summer, she contributed to their 4th place finish with her 53.22 anchor leg.
If she does swim it, the relay could be at least two seconds faster, dropping them to the 3:35-3:34 range (if we consider only best times). While this is likely still not enough for a medal, it would significantly improve their chances.
We also have to consider Mary-Sophie Harvey, who also did not swim the event at Canadian Trials, but has swum the relay in the past, and has a standing best time of 53.71. If she is in top form, she could knock another second-and-a-half off the relay time and move the team into the 3:33s to 3:32s. That is around what they were at the Olympics when they finished 4th in 3:32.99.
There are a lot of questions with the medley relay. McIntosh swam the freestyle leg on the Paris relay, splitting 53.29 to help Canada to another 4th place finish. At the SC World Championships the relay got disqualified in prelims, so there was no finals swim for McIntosh to race.
If she swims it, the relay will likely not see any changes from Oleksiak’s withdrawal since McIntosh generally swims the freestyle leg.
If she does not swim the medley, Taylor Ruck was the 2nd place finisher in the 100 freestyle at Trials, and she will easily slide into the relay in Oleksiak’s place. This makes the potential relay team of Kylie Masse, Alexanne Lepage, Mary-Sophie Harvey, and Ruck (based on Trials results) just a few tenths slower than it would have been before. They still will need a strong performance from everyone if they want to find themselves in medal contention.
The mixed relays are hard to determine. Harvey regularly swims on the mixed relays at international meets, and she swam on the mixed 400 freestyle relay at the 2023 World Championships. Canada could put any number of swimmers on the other women’s freestyle leg, and it is difficult to predict if they will go with Ruck or maybe if McIntosh will swim it, though McIntosh does not generally swim mixed relays. Douthwright is another potential relay replacement, especially since she was less than a second off Ruck and Oleksiak’s times at Trials.
The mixed 400 medley is even more difficult. Most countries go with a female swimmer on the freestyle leg, and Canada will have Harvey and Ruck available for that swim, since they will likely go with Masse on the backstroke as they have done in the past. The absence of Oleksiak doesn’t exceptionally impact the mixed relays, especially since there is such a small difference between her times and Ruck’s.
The bottom line is, Oleksiak withdrawing certainly hurts Canada’s relay potential, but it doesn’t completely doom their medal chances.
I say don’t bother with the relays. They are not as important as individual events.
They were terrible anyway.
This situation just further exemplifies that Canada doesn’t have any depth or up & comers in 100F (not one 15-17 yr old under 55.3 LC) like Aussies do. I compare Canada to Australia due to somewhat similar sizes of population. Australia seemingly always punches above its weight. Canada, especially with its recent decision to launch a “distance focus” when the IOC has added stroke 50’s only further demonstrates an inability to think strategically as a govt sport organization and develop athletes in the marquee events.
This is why John Atkinson and Suzanne Paulins (basically a SC “lifer” are not deserving of their respective roles). Both need to move on and let people who are visionaries and strategic lead the organization.… Read more »
People want swimmers to make money so they can survive and then complain when they get paid $26,000 a year…be serious
Pay them more I say- AS LONG AS THEY SHOW UP!
You really compare Australia and Canada in swimming? Just because of population size? Swimming is the be all end all in Australia, whereas in Canada it’s popularity ranks well behind most winter sports.
You’re right. The climate of US and Australia encourages swimming as a sport in a way Canada’s climate has never done. It’s freezing 9 months of the year.
Clearly you don’t know geography.
Take a look at a map…90% of the population lives within 100 KM of the USA border. And, fun fact, the southern parts of Canada such as Windsor, ON is more southerly than Northern California!
So, climate-wise, much of the country enjoys 30’C weather during the summer months.
Swimming is a huge part of Canadian recreational culture.
I know my geography. The summers here are very short and not that many days in 30 degree weather. My relatives live in Windsor and there isn’t a big population there if you compare it to Toronto or Montreal. We spend most of the year in snow or very cool autumns and springs. Lower mainland in BC does not get much snow at all but it rains a lot. Why I bring it up is that elite swimming is not in the psyche here so much as in the psyche of Americans and Australians, who have much more favourable climates for year round/outdoor training.
The Aussie climate is a lot more conducive to swimming but netball,soccer, rugby league, AFL and cricket are a lot more popular than swimming. By a long way.
I agree with you that Swimming Canada has been poor at developing new and upcoming swimmers. The bobos are milking the fact that they have a Canadian generational talent that makes them look capable and justifies the large group of “staff” that travels around the globe celebrating her success – paid with tax payers dollars – while not making any effort to grow or improve the sport of swimming behind Summer. SC holds on to lacklustre coaches, barely communicates about swimmers outside of Summer (she truly deserves all credit, but it very much gives the impression of a team of one – all while her success came after leaving Canada).
I think it is time to reevaluate current strategy… Read more »
Totally agree. Summer is a unique case. She didn’t need anyone with Swimming Canada to make her into the generational talent that she is. And if we’re being honest, most of her big strides have come training in Sarasota and with Fred, not under Canada’s leadership. So they need to wake up, resist any inclination towards complacency and see what they can do to leverage this into something groundbreaking for the sport in Canada. If we’re being honest, Canada may never have a talent like Summer again. She’s 1 of 1. This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get more kids (especially young women) into the sport.
Summer indeed “skewes” the metrics of how Canadian swimmers are performing. She doesn’t train in Canada (hasn’t since 2020 basically) and is apparently not super keen on SC leadership.
Without someone to actually “lead” a vision and execute the plan, mediocrity will continue to prevail aside from SM.
Very well said.
Honestly that is crap and ignorant re Penny “past 7 years”. You can’t ‘wag the dog’ and go 154 in a 200 Free to win an Olympic medal in 2021 during covid! She has not had a linear career like Kylie or a generational career (in the making) like Summer. However she paved the way for Canadian women after 2016 by taking on 99% of the media lightbulb, while trying to figure out being a teenager, which helped pave the way for Kylie, Taylor, Sydney, Maggie and others to flourish during that incredible 2016-21 era.
Since 2021 she has certainly developed other interests, while also battling ongoing injuries, and yes we’d like to see the best of her in… Read more »
Woof woof.
Completely agree with you. After last summer, it’s evident that SC is holding everyone back to put one athlete on a pedestal. Not that she hasn’t earned it, but so many other athletes were there to compete not just participate and they certainly didn’t help with that.
With the slew of retirements that have happened with more to come in the next few years, who is going to step up next?
“Do not ascribe that to malice which can be easily explained by ignorance.”
Swimming Canada’s media/pr/publicity has been a travesty for a decade. Nathan White, who runs it, is mediocre at his job if I’m being generous.
Summer is easy. They’re just doing what’s easy because they’re afraid to do what’s good. It’s no different than USA Swimming or most other NGBs. Their PR like to take the lazy route. Summer only does media with the CBC, a captive partner, and they don’t really have to hustle anywhere else – but are well compensated for it.
It’s a sweet gig. They’re not pushing Summer and holding everyone else back because they want Summer to be the lone shining star. They’re… Read more »
You are being nice (Canadian?) about SC’s media/pr. It is nonexistent in my opinion. Swimswam posts more about Canadian swimming and swimmers even when Canada is just an afterthought for them. During Canadian trials SC’s media was late, inconclusive, inconsistent, inaccurate, and just plain boring. They were overheard discussing celebratory plans to celebrate Summer’s world record which I guess got in the way of actually reporting on what happened at the first night at trials. Priorities….
I believe her split the day before was 52.93 not 52.8. In her final relay split she went a 53.26. Your hypothesis that she would go a 52.5 is reaching at best given she hadnt been close to those times since 2021. Do you take Penny over Summer maybe or maybe there were other behind the scenes factors at play. You come across as arrogant and know it all as the Australian commentators in the 2000 misty hyman fly win if my assumption around your handle is correct.
Correct, 52.9, my bad, 1 tenth off. Is that “modest” enough reply? 😉
My hypothesis that she could go 52.5 couldn’t be more bang on correct due to:
* the aforementioned 52.9 in “prelims” where none of 🇨🇦 had to be more than 97% on.
* that she only had 3-4 swims that whole week and was fresh, and with each swim getting a bit better (53 low in 4*100 free earlier in the week).
* that she would literally be head to head racing 2 other 52 point anchors.
* that she’d be doing so with so much on the line personally and team wise: last Olympic event, medal on line for teammates, her 8th… Read more »
Always overhyping her abilities and making excuses for her. She is no where as good as only you seem to believe her to be. There is no scenario where Canada would have medaled in the women’s relays at the 2024 Olympics no matter who swam. And similarly, there is no way the Canadian women’s relays are going to win anything at World’s. They are just not good enough and that includes Oleksiak.
Eh, with or without Penny, Canada is not a strong contender to medal in any women’s relays.
Penny’s absence makes no difference either way.
I really think there’s no difference between the 4th and 8th places. It is impossible for Canada to defeat China and win the bronze medal
How about this…”How will Canada’s relays Fare with Oleksiak’s Absence”
Pull Summer from the 800fr and add her to the FS relays. Saves her 1600 meters of swims.
Found Ledecky’s alt lol
Hi, Nesty!
Smaaaaart! She’d probably agree. I don’t think she loves the 8.
Poorly worded title