Olympic coach Dr. Joshua Neuloh has released the latest edition of the SwimNex™ Table, which predicts the times that will be produced at the upcoming Olympics three years out.
First introduced ahead of the 2012 Olympics in London, the Swimnex™ Table has become an essential resource for the international swimming community. Updated every four years, this data-driven forecast combines advanced statistical modeling with Dr. Neuloh’s hands-on experience coaching Olympic medalists and top-performing athletes.
The 2028 Swimnex™ Table outlines the projected minimum times required to progress through the heats, semifinals, and finals, along with estimated performance thresholds needed to win a gold, silver, or bronze medal. It covers both individual and relay events, serving as a strategic benchmark for swimmers, coaches, and national federations preparing for LA 2028.
Swimnex™ incorporates a wide array of variables, including historical data, performance trends, and technological developments. While the table is an estimate and not guaranteed to be 100% accurate, it offers a well-informed outlook on the level of performance expected in the next Olympic Games.
“This is the question everyone in the swimming world is asking: What will it take to make the semis, reach the final, or stand on the podium in 2028?” said Dr. Neuloh. “The Swimnex™ Table provides a solid foundation for long-term planning and preparation.”
2028 SwimNex™ Table
Women’s Events
| Freestyle | Champion | Medalist | Finalist | Semi Finalist |
| 50m | 23.77 | 24.14 | 24.34 | 24.62 |
| 100m | 52.15 | 52.46 | 52.69 | 53.63 |
| 200m | 1:53.11 | 1:54.26 | 1:56.15 | 1:57.70 |
| 400m | 3:56.57 | 3:59.95 | 4:03.31 | – |
| 800m | 8:10.04 | 8:14.52 | 8:20.29 | – |
| 1500m | 15:31.20 | 15:40.70 | 15:57.23 | – |
| Backstroke | ||||
| 50m | 27.29 | 27.51 | 27.95 | 28.39 |
| 100m | 57.42 | 57.71 | 58.96 | 59.98 |
| 200m | 2:04.54 | 2:05.80 | 2:08.16 | 2:10.00 |
| Breaststroke | ||||
| 50m | 29.72 | 30.02 | 30.39 | 30.73 |
| 100m | 1:04.71 | 1:05.43 | 1:06.16 | 1:06.76 |
| 200m | 2:18.67 | 2:20.51 | 2:23.08 | 2:24.51 |
| Butterfly | ||||
| 50m | 25.04 | 25.25 | 25.73 | 26.01 |
| 100m | 55.17 | 55.56 | 56.76 | 57.64 |
| 200m | 2:03.58 | 2:04.97 | 2:07.01 | 2:09.69 |
| Individual Medley | ||||
| 200m | 2:07.25 | 2:07.64 | 2:09.98 | 2:11.14 |
| 400m | 4:28.54 | 4:32.90 | 4:37.84 | – |
| Freestyle Relay | ||||
| 4 x 100m | 3:28.87 | 3:31.42 | 3:35.57 | – |
| 4 x 200m | 7:40.73 | 7:42.60 | 7:53.52 | – |
| Medley Relay | ||||
| 4 x 100m | 3:50.26 | 3:52.83 | 3:57.18 | – |
| Mixed Medley Relay | ||||
| 4 x 100m | 3:37.12WR | 3:38.89 | 3:43.33 | – |
Men’s Events
| Freestyle | Champion | Medalist | Finalist | Semi Finalist |
| 50m | 21.16 | 21.40 | 21.68 | 21.93 |
| 100m | 47.02 | 47.43 | 47.66 | 48.16 |
| 200m | 1:44.08 | 1:44.50 | 1:45.57 | 1:47.20 |
| 400m | 3:41.79 | 3:43.40 | 3:45.12 | – |
| 800m | 7:39.79 | 7:40.25 | 7:44.99 | – |
| 1500m | 14:33.29 | 14:37.70 | 14:46.65 | – |
| Backstroke | ||||
| 50m | 24.03 | 24.20 | 24.51 | 24.93 |
| 100m | 51.75 | 52.04 | 52.83 | 53.63 |
| 200m | 1:53.75 | 1:54.10 | 1:55.99 | 1:57.37 |
| Breaststroke | ||||
| 50m | 26.12 | 26.28 | 26.84 | 27.12 |
| 100m | 57.92 | 58.27 | 58.84 | 59.48 |
| 200m | 2:06.23 | 2:06.99 | 2:08.48 | 2:09.74 |
| Butterfly | ||||
| 50m | 22.72 | 22.87 | 23.09 | 23.39 |
| 100m | 49.79 | 50.37 | 50.90 | 51.31 |
| 200m | 1:52.52 | 1:53.32 | 1:54.87 | 1:55.55 |
|
Individual Medley
|
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| 200m | 1:53.90 | 1:55.52 | 1:57.32 | 1:58.32 |
| 400m | 4:04.91 | 4:08.40 | 4:09.95 | – |
|
Freestyle Relay
|
||||
| 4 x 100m | 3:08.79 | 3:09.94 | 3:12.47 | – |
| 4 x 200m | 6:57.94WR | 7:00.89 | 7:06.60 | – |
| Medley Relay | ||||
| 4 x 100m | 3:26.58WR | 3:27.42 | 3:32.13 | – |
|
Mixed Medley Relay
|
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| 4 x 100m | 3:37.12WR | 3:38.89 | 3:43.33 | – |
2024 Swimnex™ Table Review
Now that we have these markers for the LA Olympics, it’s a good time to take another look at the Swimnex™ Table for the Paris Olympics and see how accurate it was.
See the 2024 Table alongside the Paris results and the time differences:
Women’s Results
| Event | Stage | Swimnex Prediction | Actual Paris Result | Difference |
| Women’s 50m Freestyle | Champion | 23.79 | 23.71 | -0.08 |
| Medalist | 24.08 | 24.20 | 0.12 | |
| Finalist | 24.30 | 24.40 | 0.10 | |
| Semi-Final | 24.63 | 24.72 | 0.09 | |
| Women’s 100m Freestyle | Champion | 51.61WR | 52.16 | 0.55 |
| Medalist | 52.05 | 52.33 | 0.28 | |
| Finalist | 52.70 | 53.18 | 0.48 | |
| Semi-Final | 53.58 | 54.16 | 0.58 | |
| Women’s 200m Freestyle | Champion | 1:52.81WR | 1:53.27 | 0.46 |
| Medalist | 1:54.02 | 1:54.55 | 0.53 | |
| Finalist | 1:54.50 | 1:56.37 | 1.87 | |
| Semi-Final | 1:55.68 | 1:59.29 | 3.61 | |
| Women’s 400m Freestyle | Champion | 3:57.94 | 3:57.49 | -0.45 |
| Medalist | 4:01.59 | 4:00.86 | -0.73 | |
| Finalist | 4:03.55 | 4:03.83 | 0.28 | |
| Semi-Final | – | – | ||
| Women’s 800m Freestyle | Champion | 8:10.33 | 8:11.04 | 0.71 |
| Medalist | 8:16.06 | 8:13.00 | -3.06 | |
| Finalist | 8:20.79 | 8:22.99 | 2.20 | |
| Semi-Final | – | – | ||
| Women’s 1500m Freestyle | Champion | 15:33.19 | 15:30.02 | -3.17 |
| Medalist | 15:40.80 | 15:41.16 | 0.36 | |
| Finalist | 15:57.42 | 16:08.69 | 11.27 | |
| Semi-Final | – | – | ||
| Women’s 100m Backstroke | Champion | 57.31WR | 57.33 | 0.02 |
| Medalist | 57.83 | 57.98 | 0.15 | |
| Finalist | 58.62 | 59.5 | 0.88 | |
| Semi-Final | 59.77 | 1:00.40 | 0.63 | |
| Women’s 200m Backstroke | Champion | 2:04.66 | 2:03.73 | -0.93 |
| Medalist | 2:05.99 | 2:05.57 | -0.42 | |
| Finalist | 2:08.29 | 2:08.79 | 0.5 | |
| Semi-Final | 2:10.58 | 2:10.51 | -0.07 | |
| Women’s 100m Breaststroke | Champion | 1:04.75 | 1:05.28 | 0.53 |
| Medalist | 1:05.41 | 1:05.59 | 0.18 | |
| Finalist | 1:06.43 | 1:06.23 | -0.2 | |
| Semi-Final | 1:06.80 | 1:06.89 | 0.09 | |
| Women’s 200m Breaststroke | Champion | 2:19.02 | 2:19.24 | 0.22 |
| Medalist | 2:20.43 | 2:21.05 | 0.72 | |
| Finalist | 2:22.67 | 2:23.54 | 0.87 | |
| Semi-Final | 2:23.72 | 2:26.28 | 2.56 | |
| Women’s 100m Butterfly | Champion | 55.10WR | 55.59 | 0.49 |
| Medalist | 55.37WR | 56.21 | 0.84 | |
| Finalist | 56.61 | 56.93 | 0.32 | |
| Semi-Final | 57.39 | 57.90 | 0.51 | |
| Women’s 200m Butterfly | Champion | 2:04.50 | 2:03.03 | -1.47 |
| Medalist | 2:05.06 | 2:05.09 | 0.03 | |
| Finalist | 2:07.26 | 2:07.53 | 0.27 | |
| Semi-Final | 2:08.78 | 2:10.82 | 2.04 | |
| Women’s 200m IM | Champion | 2:07.66 | 2:06.56 | -1.10 |
| Medalist | 2:08.50 | 2:08.08 | -0.42 | |
| Finalist | 2:10.13 | 2:10.16 | 0.03 | |
| Semi-Final | 2:11.69 | 2:11.96 | 0.27 | |
| Women’s 400m IM | Champion | 4:29.30 | 4:27.71 | -1.59 |
| Medalist | 4:32.58 | 4:34.93 | 2.35 | |
| Finalist | 4:35.39 | 4:40.40 | 5.01 | |
| Semi-Final | – | – | ||
| Women’s 4x100m Freestyle Relay | Champion | 3:29.16WR | 3:28.92 | -0.24 |
| Medalist | 3:31.30 | 3:30.30 | -1.00 | |
| Finalist | 3:35.53 | 3:36.28 | 0.75 | |
| Semi-Final | – | – | ||
| Women’s 4x200m Freestyle Relay | Champion | 7:41.18 | 7:38.08 | -3.10 |
| Medalist | 7:44.45 | 7:42.34 | -2.11 | |
| Finalist | 7:52.82 | 7:54.37 | 1.55 | |
| Semi-Final | – | – | ||
| Women’s 4x100m Medley Relay | Champion | 3:51.19 | 3:49.63 | -1.56 |
| Medalist | 3:53.30 | 3:53.23 | -0.07 | |
| Finalist | 3:57.42 | 3:57.48 | 0.06 | |
| Semi-Final | – | – |
Men’s Results (+Mixed Relay)
| Event | Stage | Swimnex Prediction | Actual Paris Result | Difference |
| Men’s 50m Freestyle | Champion | 21.26 | 21.25 | -0.01 |
| Medalist | 21.46 | 21.56 | 0.10 | |
| Finalist | 21.60 | 21.69 | 0.09 | |
| Semi-Final | 22.00 | 21.94 | -0.06 | |
| Men’s 100m Freestyle | Champion | 47.22 | 46.40 | -0.82 |
| Medalist | 47.51 | 47.49 | -0.02 | |
| Finalist | 47.85 | 47.94 | 0.09 | |
| Semi-Final | 48.22 | 48.41 | 0.19 | |
| Men’s 200m Freestyle | Champion | 1:44.02 | 1:44.72 | 0.70 |
| Medalist | 1:44.54 | 1:44.79 | 0.25 | |
| Finalist | 1:45.69 | 1:45.88 | 0.19 | |
| Semi-Final | 1:46.43 | 1:47.39 | 0.96 | |
| Men’s 400m Freestyle | Champion | 3:41.91 | 3:41.78 | -0.13 |
| Medalist | 3:43.68 | 3:42.50 | -1.18 | |
| Finalist | 3:45.33 | 3:45.75 | 0.42 | |
| Semi-Final | – | – | ||
| Men’s 800m Freestyle | Champion | 7:41.65 | 7:38.19 | -3.46 |
| Medalist | 7:42.21 | 7:39.38 | -2.83 | |
| Finalist | 7:46.46 | 7:44.59 | -1.87 | |
| Semi-Final | – | – | ||
| Men’s 1500m Freestyle | Champion | 14:34.99 | 14:30.67WR | -4.32 |
| Medalist | 14:39.51 | 14:39.63 | 0.12 | |
| Finalist | 14:51.55 | 14:45.59 | -5.96 | |
| Semi-Final | – | – | ||
| Men’s 100m Backstroke | Champion | 51.88 | 52.00 | 0.12 |
| Medalist | 52.06 | 52.39 | 0.33 | |
| Finalist | 53.02 | 52.95 | -0.07 | |
| Semi-Final | 53.62 | 53.93 | 0.31 | |
| Men’s 200m Backstroke | Champion | 1:53.28 | 1:54.26 | 0.98 |
| Medalist | 1:53.93 | 1:54.85 | 0.92 | |
| Finalist | 1:56.23 | 1:56.52 | 0.29 | |
| Semi-Final | 1:57.37 | 1:57.98 | 0.61 | |
| Men’s 100m Breaststroke | Champion | 57.38 | 59.03 | 1.65 |
| Medalist | 58.32 | 59.05 | 0.73 | |
| Finalist | 58.65 | 59.38 | 0.73 | |
| Semi-Final | 59.66 | 1:00.00 | 0.34 | |
| Men’s 200m Breaststroke | Champion | 2:06.29 | 2:05.85 | -0.44 |
| Medalist | 2:07.12 | 2:07.90 | 0.78 | |
| Finalist | 2:08.41 | 2:09.89 | 1.48 | |
| Semi-Final | 2:10.19 | 2:11.16 | 0.97 | |
| Men’s 100m Butterfly | Champion | 49.32WR | 49.90 | 0.58 |
| Medalist | 49.95 | 50.45 | 0.50 | |
| Finalist | 50.60 | 51.08 | 0.48 | |
| Semi-Final | 51.29 | 51.62 | 0.33 | |
| Men’s 200m Butterfly | Champion | 1:52.83 | 1:51.21 | -1.62 |
| Medalist | 1:53.29 | 1:52.80 | -0.49 | |
| Finalist | 1:55.25 | 1:54.62 | -0.63 | |
| Semi-Final | 1:55.86 | 1:56.03 | 0.17 | |
| Men’s 200m IM | Champion | 1:54.29 | 1:54.06 | -0.23 |
| Medalist | 1:55.42 | 1:56.00 | 0.58 | |
| Finalist | 1:57.53 | 1:57.76 | 0.23 | |
| Semi-Final | 1:58.30 | 2:00.79 | 2.49 | |
| Men’s 400m IM | Champion | 4:05.43 | 4:02.95 | -2.48 |
| Medalist | 4:08.25 | 4:08.66 | 0.41 | |
| Finalist | 4:10.87 | 4:11.52 | 0.65 | |
| Semi-Final | – | |||
| Men’s 4x100m Freestyle Relay | Champion | 3:08.41 | 3:09.28 | 0.87 |
| Medalist | 3:09.82 | 3:10.70 | 0.88 | |
| Finalist | 3:13.05 | 3:13.15 | 0.10 | |
| Semi-Final | – | |||
| Men’s 4x200m Freestyle Relay | Champion | 6:57.92WR | 6:59.43 | 1.51 |
| Medalist | 7:01.05 | 7:01.98 | 0.92 | |
| Finalist | 7:05.80 | 7:08.43 | 2.63 | |
| Semi-Final | – | |||
| Men’s 4x100m Medley Relay | Champion | 3:25.79WR | 3:27.46 | 1.67 |
| Medalist | 3:27.46 | 3:28.38 | 0.92 | |
| Finalist | 3:31.84 | 3:32.51 | 0.67 | |
| Semi-Final | – | |||
| Mixed 4x100m Medley Relay | Champion | 3:36.82WR | 3:37.43WR | 0.61 |
| Medalist | 3:38.69 | 3:38.76 | 0.07 | |
| Finalist | 3:42.55 | 3:44.25 | 1.70 | |
| Semi-Final | – |
In total, the men’s results were cumulatively 5.70 seconds slower than the predictions made by the 2024 Table, while the women’s results were a staggering 23.59 seconds slower. However, that big number is primarily due to a few outliers, led by the women’s 1500 free time required to final being more than 11 seconds slower, and the women’s 400 IM time required to make the final being five seconds slower–both partially due to relatively small fields at the Games. The relatively slow times in Paris in certain events, which were rumored to be due to a shallow pool (at least early in the meet), saw events like the men’s 100 breast fall well below expectations.
There are also some outliers the other way, who outperformed the predictions, including Summer McIntosh and Leon Marchand in the 400 IM. The men’s distance free winning times, and Hubert Kos‘ triumph in the men’s 200 back, also outperformed expectations.
The Women’s 100 Back and 100 Fly are not world records? Maybe I missed something.
I kept the original table format from pre-Paris, which included WRs for events that would’ve been under the world record at the time the table was produced.
Did I miss what year (how long before Paris) they predicted those times?
Making time predictions a year out is very different to predicting times 3 years out.
They’re usually released three years out, but (likely due to the Tokyo postponement) the Paris predictions came out in January 2022. – https://swimswam.com/what-will-it-take-to-win-gold-in-paris-2024-swimnex-olympic-predictions/
Model is over indexed to the 2024 slowdown from 2023
Australia to win four relays.
I think the issue with something like this is that swimming is such an individual sport.
Like, Summer McIntosh attending or skipping LA could change the winning time by multiple seconds in multiple events. It’s such a small pool (pun intended) to draw from with massive deviations between the best and second best in a lot of cases.
Something like track which has a LOT more participants and competition would probably be able to be predicted more accurately because there are fewer massive outliers and fewer distance between the top athletes
Track can’t be predicted accurately because the pacing varies so much depending on climate and participants. For example, a men’s 1500 final without Jakob Ingebrigsten is going to be many seconds slower than when he’s in the race. He’ll push the pace. Otherwise it’s going to be a tactical sit and kick.
Tokyo distance races will be slower than Paris or Los Angeles because of stifling heat and humidity. But a formula like the one featured in this thread won’t want to incorporate adjustments like that. It’s the reason it fits best with controlled climate like swimming.
Obviously in swimming it’s reliant on standard levels at each tier. When extraordinary talents like Marchand and McIntosh are involved, the… Read more »
Your negative and positive differentials are inconsistent fyi
It would take the pool being Paris shallow with the Thailand elephant sanctuary in one of the lanes for the Men’s 100 Free champ to not go under 47.
Every single event is too slow