We are approaching the end of 2025. While the college season is about to kick off in the United States with several noteworthy meets, the international calendar also brings the World Cup in short course meters in October. This raises the question: What has been the frequency of world records in the final months of the year?
So far in 2025, we’ve seen 10 world records, all of them in long course. How many more can we expect before the year is over?
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Looking back at the 25 years between 2000 and 2024, some years saw a flurry of world records in the last quarter, while others barely registered any.
Naturally, years with a Short Course World Championship held in December saw an increase in records during the final three months. That was the case in 2021, 2022, and 2024 — and every two years since 2010, with the exception of 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Interestingly, 2020 still produced a high number of world records in November and December thanks to the International Swimming League (ISL) in SCM.
Overall, odd-numbered years tend to be quieter for world records late in the season. In 2023, there were three world records: two from Kaylee McKeown in LCM during the World Cup, and one from Daniel Wiffen at the European Short Course Championships. In 2019, there were five, all in SCM. A standout year was 2013, which saw 23 short course world records in the final months despite no Short Course Worlds being held. That was the year World Aquatics began recognizing mixed relay records — and no fewer than 12 mixed relay world records were established in the last quarter alone.
(Of course, not much explanation is needed for the 59 world records set in the final quarter of 2009, at the peak of the supersuit era.)
This year, the strongest opportunities for multiple world records come at the World Cup — held in North America in October — and the European Short Course Championships in December in Lublin, Poland.
But what about long course? History shows the odds are slim. Since 2000, only eight long course world records have been set in the last quarter of the year. Two of them, both from 2009 during the supersuit era, are still standing: Liu Zige in the women’s 200 butterfly and Cesar Cielo in the men’s 50 freestyle.
WORLD RECORDS SET IN THE FINAL QUARTER OF THE YEAR IN LONG COURSE (SINCE 2000)
| Year | Athlete | Event | Time | Meet | City |
| 2002, Oct. 2 | Kosuke Kitajima (JPN) | Men’s 200 breast | 2:09.97 | Asian Games | Busan |
| 2007, Oct. 19 | Li Yang (CHN) | Women’s 50 back | 28.09 | World Military Games | Hyderabad |
| 2008, Dec. 5 | Randall Bal (USA) | Men’s 50 back | 24.33 | Eindhoven Cup | Eindhoven |
| 2009, Oct. 21 | Liu Zige (CHN) | Women’s 200 fly | 2:01.81 | CHN National Games | Jinan |
| 2009, Dec. 18 | Cesar Cielo (BRA) | Men’s 50 free | 20.91 | Brazil Open | Sao Paulo |
| 2020, Oct. 1 | China | Mixed 4×100 medley | 3:38.41 | CHN Nationals | Qingdao |
| 2023, Oct. 20 | Kaylee McKeown (AUS) | Women’s 50 back | 26.86 | World Cup | Budapest |
| 2023, Oct. 21 | Kaylee McKeown (AUS) | Women’s 100 back | 57.33 | World Cup | Budapest |
Women’s 50/100/200/400/800 free and 50/100/200 back and 50/100/200 fly at least.
I’m calling minimum 15 world records over the series
Kate Douglass could lower the 200 breast again and given her rate of improvement this year in the 100 breast LCM, perhaps she can start to challenge 100 breast SCM record as well, though her best time is a bit off.
If Douglass can challenge the 100 breast record then I can see how every women’s record besides the 50 breast could be challenged.
50FR Walsh
100FR Walsh
200FR O’Callaghan McIntosh
400FR McIntosh
800FR Pallister Ledecky McIntosh
1500FR Ledecky maybe even Pallister
50BK Smith McKeown Walsh
100BK Smith McKeown Walsh
200BK Smith McKeown
50FL Walsh
100FL Walsh
200FL McIntosh
50BR ?????
100BR Douglass
200BR Douglass
200IM Douglass McIntosh
400IM McIntosh
Is Ruta going?
Is there no chance of Summer getting the 200 fly at the US open? Is that because it’s a minor enough meet they wouldn’t taper, or for another reason?
Marchand will challenge 200 breast in SCM and LCM
Likely to see the Womens 50 free, 50 fly, and 100 fly world records challenged this quarter as Gretchen is going to be at the world cup.
GW may also have a chance in the sprint backs too. She was 54 high in the 100 at that random SCM dual last fall. I think the 50 back SCM is right up her alley.
(Honestly seeing her go up against Kaylee and Regan could be fascinating since they have no overlap at all in the long course pool)
What is unclear right now is whether Gretchen’s focus will focus on earning crowns (winning the same event in all three sites) or trying different events where she may not be the favorite, such as backstrokes. Also, will she attempt doubles, when the scoring of the meet does not encourage loading up on events? When first announced, USA Swimming was limiting American swimmers to three events at the US stops, but that was upped to five.
These are the potential events I see for each site (for her events the schedules are the same for each stop and only in the backstrokes is she not either the World Record holder or the best active swimmer in each event):
Day 1:… Read more »
yikes USAS wanted to limit to only 3 events? when this is one of the biggest money making opportunities for many pro swimmers in the states?
I will say with the nature of the event, its probably not worth it to do more than 5 or 6 events – but many of the top top swimmers over the last few years in the current iteration of the WC have done a double or two to see where they can max out points.
I can’t say why. I noticed the limit on the Meet Info for Carmel and Westmont. Then it changed on 9/12. Maybe they were worried about too many athletes. For example, NC State listed the Carmel stop on its schedule and Virginia listed the Westmont stop on its schedule. I’m not sure how many other schools will be sending a number of athletes to the stops.
GW just announced she’s a GO for all 3 of the North America World Cup stops…. so I’d say the chance of WRs this fall is STRONG