The Virginia women are currently on a three-season ACC Championship streak. Not a single member of the North Carolina team were even on the squad the last time that UNC (or anyone else) won an ACC Championship. Only redshirt senior diver Jaq Horner can say she saw the last time someone besides Virginia won the women’s title. This year could be the year that ends that streak, as North Carolina has their best squad in years. This is going to be a great battle between the two teams. Virginia has a great senior class, including Claire Crippen and Liz Shaw, that is looking to go undefeated in their college careers at this meet. The other side of the coin is UNC, which has a similarly talented senior group that has been runner-up every year, and is spearheaded by sprinter Rebecca Kane, who will likely break the school record in both the 50 and 100 freestyles this season.
Conversely, both teams also have some serious guns in their youth ranks. Virginia sophomore Lauren Perdue should easily snare titles in the 50, 100, and 200 freestyles, and freshman Rachel Naurath is not far behind anybody in the 200, 500, and mile. UNC’s Stephanie Peacock has transformed from a good, but not great, recruit into a freshman contender for the National title in the 500 free.
Both teams are balanced, and have no glaring weaknesses. Florida State added more in their recruiting class than they lost, which was hardly nothing, and includes one of the country’s best freshman sprinters in Tiffany Oliver. Their diving squad took a hit from graduation, but added Kelsey Goodman, who is outstanding.
Though these are the only three squads that will contend for the conference crown, this meet is going to be decided largely by the other teams. Specifically a surprisingly good Maryland team, lead by Annie Fittin, Miami’s Annika Saarnak, and Virginia Tech’s Erika Hajnal. Neither Virginia nor North Carolina is dominant enough to win this meet without some help from the other teams within the conference, and these other swimmers are going to have the opportunity to play the spoilers in a lot of different races.
Diving
Duke junior Abby Johnston is the reigning ACC Diver of the Year, after winning (and setting ACC-Championship records) in both the 1-meter and 3-meter last season. Beyond her, the ACC divers are extremely tightly matched, both on an individual and a team level. Florida State has a little more depth than the other programs, though none of their divers are spectacular, so they should be able to eke out the most points from the boards.
Last season, Virginia didn’t score a single ACC point in diving, which is something that they probably can’t afford to do again. Luckily for them, they added two very good freshmen divers, Kelly Lloyd and Alex Leinroth, who will keep the Cavaliers in the meet through the diving this year. Still, they will be probably be behind the Tarheels in total diving points, so they’ll be rooting for divers like NC State’s Hannah Hopkins and Virginia Tech’s Sarah Milton to push the Carolina boarders down a few places.
Races to Watch
100 freestyle
Lauren Perdue is the clear favorite here, and should have no problem cruising to a win in this race. Her only competition will be the 48.10 ACC-Record. The battle for second is going to be awesome, though. UNC’s Kane and Maryland’s Fittin will represent the “old gals” in this race, against Florida State freshman sensation Oliver and Fittin’s teammate Megan Lafferty. Second through fifth in this race are seeded only .15 apart, which is exactly what you want from a 100 freestyle. Fittin has already snapped most of her career-best times this year, and I think that she’ll repeat as the silver medalist in this event, with Kane in third.
200 yard freestyle relay
If I asked you to peg the two fastest 200 freestyle relays in the ACC, you’d probably pick the obvious choices: Virginia, anchored by speed-demon Perdue, and North Carolina, anchored by Kane, the second best sprinter in the conference. But if you picked them, you would be 0-for-2. The Maryland Terrapins have three sprinters who have flat-started a 22 this season (the only program in the ACC, and one of the few this side of the Pac-10, that can boast such an accomplishment), which has earned them the top seed in this race. Florida State is much better in this race than than the sum of its parts, though Oliver is on her way to being one of the best sprinters in the country, and they will be the number two seed. Then come the Tarheels with the third seed and Virginia with the four seed. This is going to be a loaded, extremely tight race. Maryland’s wild-card is Blair Cross, who has a flat-start best of 23.55 this season. As a senior, who has historically been better on relays, I like her odds to keep the Terrapins in this race as the number two swimmer before they hit the gas on the final two legs.
400 IM
This race, that kicks of the third finals session of the meet, is going to be a major turning point. Virginia has 6 out of the top 9 seeds (per the psych sheets, which are not finalized entries), led by 4:09.38 top seed Claire Crippen. North Carolina has two swimmers, Laura Moriarty and Stephanie Peacock, in the top nine as well. Those two are currently seeded fourth and sixth, and will need to move up and do some damage to Virginia’s scoring. The Tarheels will also be rooting for the other member of the top 9, Virginia Tech’s Erika Hajnal, who is the only one seeming to have a shot at knocking Crippen from the top spot, and steal the bonus points that are associated with it.
Outlook
Virginia seems fit to win this again, though don’t expect the blowout we saw last year when they were 230 points ahead of their next-closest competitor. Florida State and North Carolina are going to come down to the wire for runner-up, and North Carolina’s depth in the final day’s events is going to be the difference maker. For the Seminoles to place second, it’s going to take a monumental effort from their divers, and I can’t see it happening.
Last year, the battle for fourth came down to just a 2.5 point difference between Maryland and Virginia Tech. Though the Terrapins have lost more to graduation since then, they have also improved as individuals a ton since last season. Another nailbiter, but Maryland should come out on top.
I like Miami for 8th, thanks to Annika Saarnak and some strong relays. This would be a big improvement over their 10th place finish last year.
Expected Finish:
1. #11 Virginia Cavaliers
2. #12 North Carolina Tarheels
3. #22 Florida State Seminoles
4. Maryland Terrapins
5. Virginia Tech Hokies
6. North Carolina State Wolfpack
7. Duke Blue Devils
8. Miami Hurricanes
9. Clemson Tigers
10. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
11. Boston College EaglesC
