The SEC Women’s Swimming and Diving Championship is one of the hardest meets to peg at the NCAA level. This is because the final results rarely equate to final standings at the NCAA Championships, so you have to alter your expectations based on superstars and really hone in on a program’s depth and relative strengths. For example, last season, the Georgia women won the SEC Championship in a blowout: by 125 points over Florida, but the Gators were the National Champions, while the Bulldogs finished in fifth. In 2009, Georgia placed behind both Auburn and champions Florida at SEC’s, but it was Georgia who was second in the nation, followed by Auburn in sixth and Florida in seventh.
This excitement and uncertainty may be why tickets for this meet sold out in all of 12 minutes.
Live free video for the event is available through GatorVision, check out this link for details. Psych sheets are available here.
Diving
Like the men, the SEC women have already held their diving Championships. Also like the men, the Auburn women have taken a slight lead through the first three events, though their margin is not as great.
1. Auburn – 96
2. Florida – 89
3. South Carolina – 62
4. Arkansas – 50
5. Georgia – 38
6. Kentucky – 35
7. Tennessee – 32
T-8. Alabama – 31.5
T-8. LSU – 31.5
The Tigers have taken the lead thanks to solid performances by their divers Vennie Danton and Anna Aquero, who earned a grand total of five top-3 finishes in the three disciplines. But they were both outshone by the spectacular lone superstar of Florida’s Monica Dodson. Though she lost her partner-in-crime from last year, Kara Salamone, to graduation, Dodson has stepped up her game this year, and earned the 2011 SEC Diver of the Year honor. She won both the 3-meter and platform competitions, the latter in SEC-record fashion. She has helped the Gators stay within reaching distance of Auburn as they re-place the lanelines in Gainesville and prepare for the swimming to begin on Wednesday.
Races to Watch
50 free
This battle, between Auburn’s Ariana Vanderpool-Wallace and LSU’s Jane Trepp, is going to be one of the best at the conference level in the country. The two come in with season-best marks of 22.14 and 22.16, respectively, and both swimmers competed in December’s Short Course World Championships for their respective countries. This one is truly a coin toss in every sense of the word. Throw in Florida juniors Shara Stafford and Sarah Bateman, whose in-season times aren’t as impressive but went without a mid-season taper, and this is going to be a heck of a battle. The Auburn women have a little more to lose than LSU, and thus might put more of a focus on SEC’s than NCAA’s, so I’ll give Vanderpool-Wallace the nod here. But with Trepp swimming at totally unprecedented levels this year, it’s going to be a barn-burner.
200 free
Georgia’s middle-distance freestyle group is the most impressive of any core in any specialty in the country. They have 5 out of the top 6 swimmers in the conference in this race, and have the potential to get that many into the NCAA A-final as well. I’d bet that the Bulldogs will spread these girls around for this meet, but their top 5 all have best times between 1:45.2 and 1:45.6. Florida’s Stafford, after all of her various health-issues, probably won’t be able to challenge in this race, though she may be recovered for NCAA’s, but otherwise would be among the favorites to knock off Allison Schmitt and crew. Tennessee’s Lindsay Gendron, who’s been a 1:45.3 this year, could spoil the party and take the whole enchilada. Schmitt, despite not being the top seed, has gotta be the favorite though. Last year, she whacked off over 3 seconds from her January time at SEC’s, despite a much bigger mid-season taper, which puts the winning mark at this meet right around a 1:42-high. I don’t know if anyone else in this deep field can match that.
400 free relay
The Auburn women are big favorites in the 200 free relay, and the Georgia women will only be stopped by a DQ in the 800. In between is where the two will collide. Add in the Florida Gators, who probably count this as their best relay when healthy, and the drama that will come with a hotly contested meet finish, and there’s going to be a lot of curious eyes focused on this one. It will come down to who has the most juice left at the end of the meet. Vanderpool-Wallace will be the single best 100 freestyler in the relay for any team, but Georgia’s balance and options will win-out. The Bulldogs won this race last year, and didn’t graduate anybody off of that relay, so I’ll pick them to repeat in the 3:12 range.
The Outcome
Georgia probably has the highest National Championship hopes amongst SEC teams, but can they buck the trend and pull off an SEC Championship too? Auburn’s success will hang largely on whether or not breaststroker Micah Lawrence can regain the form she showed at USA-Swimming Long Course Nationals over the summer, or if she will have another disappointing meet like she did last year at NCAA’s. Florida seems to have fallen off of the pace, with Stafford’s mysterious ailment and the two swimmers that were suspended from the team after being charged with misdemeanor shoplifting. By themselves, all of Florida’s issues wouldn’t make a noticable difference. But together, those ten points here and ten points there will add up. Georgia needs some of their blazing freestylers to step up and fill other spots in their lineup.
There isn’t a “complete team” in this year’s SEC. So we’ll have to see which team does the best job of plugging their holes. I think Georgia, by way of hardly graduating anybody after last season, has built the versatility and depth that it takes to win this type of meet. the Auburn women will probably take the lion’s share of the relays, but as long as Georgia’s getting second (and wins at least the 800), that won’t hurt as badly as it will at NCAA’s. They do have some ground to make up after diving, but they’ve got the horses to do it.
The Tennessee women have been getting a lot of buzz thanks to a big dual meet win against #11 Virginia, and some mid-season school records. They could even win some events with a good rest (Kelsey Floyd is a good bet to take down even Teresa Crippen in the 200 fly), but they won’t be able to rack up the points on the lower end of the A and B-finals like the top 3 will.
LSU, Arkansas, South Carolina and Alabama will be very tight. LSU has Trepp, who could be the swimmer of the meet. Arkansas has the second-best distance freestyle crew behind Georgia. Alabama has a wide-spread of talent, but no real star. South Carolina is rising rapidly. I’ll take Trepp in a pinch to eke out the top-5 finish.
Here’s how I see it shaking down.
1. #2 Georgia Bulldogs
2. #3 Auburn Tigers
3. #7 Florida Gators
4. #9 Tennessee Volunteers
5. LSU Tigers
6. #20 Arkansas Razorbacks
7. Alabama Crimson Tide
8. South Carolina Gamecocks
9. Kentucky Wildcats
10. Vanderbilt Commodores
