2025 Worlds Previews: Can Leon Marchand Break the 200 IM World Record?

2025 World Championships

• July 27 – August 3, 2025 (pool swimming)
• Singapore, Singapore
• World Aquatics Championships Arena
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• Live Results
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• Psych Sheet (Google Sheet Courtesy of Troyy)
• Psych Sheet (PDF)

Men’s 200 IM– By the Numbers

• World Record: 1:54.00 – Ryan Lochte, United States (2011)
• World Junior Record: 1:56.99 – Hubert Kos, Hungary (2018)
• World Championship Record: 1:54.00 –  Ryan Lochte, United States (2011)
• 2023 World Champion: Leon Marchand (FRA) – 1:54.82
• 2024 Olympic Champion: Leon Marchand (FRA) – 1:54.06

Returning Olympic Finalists

• Gold- Leon Marchand (FRA), Silver- Duncan Scott (GBR), Bronze- Wang Shun (CHN), 4th- Carson Foster (USA), 5th- Tom Dean (GBR), 6th- Alberto Razzetti (ITA), 8th- Finlay Knox (CAN)

This event is one of the ones where we are seeing the most continuity from the 2024 Olympics to the 2025 World Championships. Seven of the eight finalists in Paris are reprising their swims with entries in the 200 IM, making predictions a little more complex, at least when it comes to spots two-eight.

Taking Down Titans

Leon Marchand is the far-and-away favorite to win the 200 IM. The big question surrounding his swim is whether he will be able to break Ryan Lochte’s long-standing 200 IM World Record. This is the only record Lochte has remaining, but Marchand is no stranger to breaking records set by titans of the sport.

Leon Marchand, courtesy of Fabio Cetti

At the 2023 World Championships, he broke the oldest long course World Record ever, the men’s 400 IM. His swim of 4:02.50 took down a record that Michael Phelps had held since 2002 in absolutely dominant fashion. Can he do the same to the 200 IM record?

In Paris, Marchand swam just six-hundredths over the 1:54.00 mark set by Lochte in 2011 en route to winning the gold medal in the event. He has swum two 200 IMs this season, the first one in May at the TYR PSS in Fort Lauderdale, where he finished 2nd in 1:57.27. He swam it again a few weeks ago, clocking 1:57.23 at the Indy Summer Cup.

Despite being more than three seconds off his lifetime best, he still sits in 8th in the world this season, though he is seeded first with his time from Paris.

The Olympic Finalists

After Marchand, come six men who joined him in the Olympic final last summer. Duncan Scott, the silver medalist from Great Britain, leads the charge at 1:55.31, just four-hundredths ahead of China’s Wang Shun.

Duncan Scott (photo: Jack Spitser)

Scott swam 1:56.44 at the Great Britain Swimming Championships, which ranks him 5th in the world. This time is only about half a second slower than he swam at last year’s Olympic Trials when he went 1:55.91 to qualify for the Olympic Team. Even if he only drops six-tenths from his Trials time, he should make the final comfortably.

Fellow Brit Tom Dean is another one of the returning finalists. Having finished 5th in Paris, he is coming into the meet seeded 9th overall with the 1:56.44 he swam at last year’s British Trials. In the Olympic final he came in just two-hundredths over that time in 1:56.46. So far this year, he has not been as fast, swimming 1:58.80 at the end of May, which is good for 26th in the world. If he is wanting to repeat as a finalist, he will likely need to be around the 1:56.44 he swam last summer.

Wang Shun is the 3rd seed, and the Olympic bronze medalist. His 2024 Chinese Nationals time of 1:55.35 brings him in just behind Scott, and makes him a very comfortable contender for the final. At the Chinese National Championships in May, he swam 1:56.58 to earn his spot on the Worlds team. He sits just behind Scott in the world rankings in 6th overall. Wang has a lifetime best of 1:54.62 from the 2023 Asian Games, making him the only swimmer in the field besides Marchand who has been under 1:55.

After Shun, we have a North American duo in Carson Foster and Finlay Knox. Foster, from the United States, finished 4th at the Games, one-tenth away from winning a medal in 1:56.10. He is seeded 4th with his lifetime best 1:55.65, which he swam at the 2024 U.S. Olympic Trials, and he sits in 2nd this season with the 1:55.76 he swam to finish 2nd at this summer’s U.S. Nationals.

Foster could challenge for a podium finish, but he would need to replicate his Trials performance, which has been a challenge for him in the past, particularly in this event. In 2024, he added almost half-a-second from Trials to the Olympics, and in 2023 he was three tenths slower at Worlds than he was at Nationals.

Canadian Finlay Knox is the reigning World Champion and he is seeded 6th overall in 1:56.07. He won the sparsely attended 2024 Worlds in Doha in 1:56.64, and then got faster a few months later when he swam his 1:56.07 at Canadian Trials.

He has not dropped back into the 1:56 range since that meet, with his fastest time in Paris standing at the 1:57.26 he swam in the final. He has been slightly faster than his Olympic time this year, coming in with the 1:57.25 he swam at the Canadian Trials last month, which ranks him 13th in the world. He is going to need to be in the 1:56s if he wants to make the final later this month.

The final Olympic finalist who is returning is Italian swimmer Alberto Razzetti. Razzetti finished 6th at the Games, touching in 1:56.82. This was a little over half-a-second off his National record time of 1:56.21 from the 2023 Italian Championships. He is seeded 12th overall with his time from Paris, and he sits 16th in the world with the 1:58.05 he swam at Italian Nationals. He will likely need to be faster than his time in Paris if he wants to earn his way into the event final.

Challenging the Leaders

Where some of the returning finalists have struggled this year, there are a host of athletes who are chomping at the bit to earn their way into the final. Not the least of which is current world leader, American Shaine Casas.

Casas has historically struggled to perform at major meets, one example is his 9th place finish at last summer’s Olympics, but he has shown incredible growth in that area in the last 12 months. At the 2024 SC Worlds, he won the gold medal in the 200 IM, breaking Ryan Lochte’s American record in the process.

Shaine Casas (photo: Jack Spitser)

He has continued to build on that momentum since Budapest, setting the top time in the world this year in the 200 IM with the 1:55.73 he swam to win the U.S. Nationals last month. This time has him seeded 5th at Worlds, just behind teammate Foster. Casas has one of the fastest best times in the field with the 1:55.24 he swam at the 2022 US Nationals, and he will be looking to improve that time and earn his way onto the podium.

Japanese swimmer Tomoyuki Matsushita is entering the meet as the 7th seed with the 1:56.35 he swam at the Japanese Trials in March. He is replacing longstanding Japanese IMer Daiya Seto at the top of the IM events. Seto was the only finalist from Paris who is not returning this summer. Matsushita has seen significant improvements in the event this year, after finishing 5th at last year’s Japanese Trials, and could end up in the final.

Kosuke Makino is another Japanese swimmer who could earn his way into the final. He currently has the 7th fastest time in the world this season at 1:56.80, which he swam in March at Japanese Trials to finish just behind Matsushita. This was his first time under 1:57 in the event, and was almost three seconds faster than the 1:59.89 he went at last summer’s Nationals. As one of only seven swimmers to break into the 1:56 range so far this season, he is a serious finals contender if he can replicate that swim, or drop even further.

Finally, Hungary’s Hubert Kos is making a case for his spot in the final. Coming into the meet as the 8th seed, Kos sits just on the line for earning his place in the final, but he has seen significant improvement this year already. At the Hungarian National Championships, he dropped more than half-a-second from his previous best, and the World Junior Record, of 1:56.99 to win the event, touching in 1:56.40. This marked his first time under 1:57 since he set that record time in 2021, and is a good sign when it comes to his finals chances in Singapore.

The Picks

With Marchand so far ahead of the rest of the field, anything other than him at gold would be a major upset. Our biggest question around the gold is if he will be able to take down the World Record in the process.

After Marchand, there are a number of athletes who can take the silver, but the momentum is behind Casas who had a very strong SCM season and SC Worlds in December.

With seven of the eight finalists returning, the rest of the prediction really comes down to season-best times and who has been the closest to their lifetime best.

Dark Horse: Ilya Borodin (BLR/NAB)— Borodin is entered as the 10th seed with the 1:56.75 he swam last July. This has been his only time under 1:57, and he currently sits in 23rd in the world with the 1:58.56 he swam at the Russian National Championships in April. He was sixth at the 2024 SC World Championships, and if he is able to make his way back into the 1:56 range, he could easily end up in the final. Borodin was stuck at a 1:58.00 from the time he was 17 (in 2020) until he was 20 (in 2023), but his times seem to be trending in the right direction again.