Final Session of 2015 NCAA Division II Championships – Get Ready for a Nailbiter

NCAA Division II Championships – Hot Links

  • March 11th-14th, 2015
  • Indianapolis, Indiana (IUPUI Natatorium)
  • Real-Time results
  • Video link (expected to be available when meet starts)
  • Championship Central
  • Day 4 events: 100 free, 200 back, 200 breast, 400 free relay, women’s 3-meter diving, 1650 free (timed finals)

Men’s Meet

We are just a couple of hours away from the final session of the 2015 NCAA Division II Championships, and the drama is building. The Drury men have held the title since 2005, but it looks like there will be a new sheriff in town after tonight: the Royals of Queens University of Charlotte.

Granted, it should not have been totally unexpected. Queens entered the meet in a stronger position, with two of the best D2 swimmers the NCAA has ever seen in Matt Josa and Nick Arakelian, and a fairly deep bench to back up their superstars.

Our financial modeling had the Royals up by 18 points over Drury and 21 over Lindenwood, before the meet even began. However, taper, adrenaline, teamwork, and all sorts of other emotions come into play when you get to the meet, and predictions on paper can mean absolutely nothing.

If Queens ends up with their first NCAA trophy tonight, they will be able to trace their victory to the extra points they squeezed out of the 200 IM, 200 free, and both backstrokes. In fact, the only reason it came down to the wire at all was because of the 200 medley relay DQ on Day One that had them starting Day Two down by 18.5 points.

Drury is in a difficult position tonight, because not only do the Panthers have to execute perfectly on everything, but they have to hope for a Queens misstep. Drury had a pretty even meet, gaining here, losing there, but overall they remained fairly true to where we saw them finishing. One surprise that could help them tonight was their performance in the 1000 free; a big mile could inch them closer to parity with Queens. The Panther’s biggest disappointment will likely be the missed opportunity to load up the A final of the 100 free.

Lindenwood is in a solid position for third, despite a 400 medley relay DQ and subpar finishes in their 200 and 400 free relays. Wayne State may have had the “overperformance” of the meet. Not only have they improved relative to their pre-meet positioning, they have even more importantly run even or better in every single final, especially the all-important double-point relays.

Here is how the final standings would look if the meet were to end after prelims:

Team Final Prediction Vs Prelims Vs Psych
Queens 426.5 -4.5 -8.5
Drury 421.5 10.5 4.5
Lindenwood 357 5 -56
Wayne State 284 40 86
Florida Southern 281.5 -6.5 66.5
Grand Valley 257 8 22
Nova Southeastern 255 10 -15
Bridgeport 205.5 -4.5 62.5
Tampa 176 -10 -9
Cal Baptist 169.5 5.5 -3.5
Wingate 161 -11 30
Delta State 154 1 18
Saint Leo 128.5 -18.5 -27
West Chester 127 -11 -4
St. Cloud State 89 -12 -18
Missouri S&T 82 -13 -33
Lewis 68.5 7.5 -38
Clarion 57 3 3
UC San Diego 55 1 -34
Carson-Newman 48 4 -18
Pfeiffer 36.5 -0.5 11.5
Simon Fraser 28 0 -1
Colorado Mesa 27 5 8
Catawba 24 -1 -9
Limestone 22 -4 -25
CS Mines 15 0 -22
Truman State 12 -2 -8
Findlay 12 -2 8
Florida Tech 7 -2 5
IUP 7 5 -2
Jewell 5 -4 -8
Indy 1 -2 -15

 

Women’s Meet

The women’s meet has been much less drama-ridden. From Day One, Queens dominated the scene. The Royals succeeded in improving the positioning of one –or two– swimmers in nearly every event. Day One was their most successful, gaining over 50 points in just the 200 IM and 50 free alone, but they also ended Day Four with an extra body in the A final of the 100 free to really seal the deal. In between it was a steady trickle of improvements. And that is how championships are won.

Drury did an excellent job, too, especially in distance freestyle. Although the defending champions were never really “in” the team race this year, the few misses that made the difference for them will likely turn out to be the 50 free, 100 back, and 100 breast where the Panthers did not quite live up to expectations.

Wingate had a steady meet, which allowed them to overtake Nova Southeastern at third. The Bulldogs had great performances in both butterfly and both backstroke events, and added points with several strong relays.

Here is where we see the women’s meet headed, if scoring were to end after prelims (completely ignoring the 3-meter diving, which will change things significantly in the middle):

Team Final Prediction Vs Prelims Vs Psych
Queens 536.5 8.5 75.5
Drury 464.5 13.5 35.5
Wingate 325 6 35
Nova Southeastern 217 -31 -111
UC San Diego 208 9 -10
Delta State 181 -9 40
LIU Post 179 -13 -37
Wayne State 178 9 66
Cal Baptist 173 4 -103
Lindenwood 165 5 12
Tampa 123.5 10.5 22.5
Simon Fraser 118 18 8
Florida Southern 104 -16 -36
West Florida 94 -9 -39
Lynn 85 -3 3
Limestone 70 12 26
Northern Michigan 65.5 -12.5 11.5
Carson-Newman 65 -16 -40
Clarion 55 0 13
Ashland 50 4 1
West Chester 44 9 -7
St. Cloud State 38 -5 20
Grand Valley 35 -4 0
Alaska Fairbanks 34 0 -27
California University of PA 33 0 15
Bridgeport 32 1 15
Saint Leo 31.5 0.5 3.5
Bloomsburg 30 0 25
Colorado Mesa 28.5 3.5 -1.5
Findlay 20 -3 14
Edinboro 14 1 7
MSU Mankato 12 -4 -3
Henderson State 11 -2 0
Tiffin 7 0 -13
Truman State 5 3 -17
IUP 4 -5 -1
Adams State 1 -8 -5
Hillsdale 1 -3 -10

 

Meet Standings Heading into Day Four

Women – Top Ten Through Day Three

  1. Queens (NC) 422.5
  2. Drury 356.5
  3. Wingate 248
  4. Nova S’Eastern 180
  5. UCSD 159
  6. Wayne State 147
  7. Delta State 132
  8. LIU Post 127
  9. Cal Baptist 117
  10. Lindenwood 110

Men – Top Ten Through Day Three

  1. Queens (NC) 316.5
  2. Drury 302.5
  3. Lindenwood 270
  4. Grand Valley 230
  5. Wayne State 223
  6. Florida Southern 196.5
  7. Nova S’Eastern 171
  8. Bridgeport 169.5
  9. Tampa 126
  10. Cal Baptist 125.5

 

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About Anne Lepesant

Anne Lepesant

Anne Lepesant is the mother of four daughters, all of whom swim/swam in college. With an undergraduate degree from Princeton (where she was an all-Ivy tennis player) and an MBA from INSEAD, she worked for many years in the financial industry, both in France and the U.S. Anne is currently …

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