Comparing Point Differentials Between NCAA Psych Sheet and Actual Results from 2009 to 2014

Price Fishback went back through the last six years, breaking down the psych sheets and actual results. We saw the first glimpse of how accurate the psych sheet scoring was last weekend at the women’s championships. The system is not perfect, but it paints a picture of what the meet could look like. The California women, for example, were only 8 points over their predicted score from the psych sheet of 505 with a total of 513 points at the end of the meet. This breakdown shows how close teams have been over the past few seasons.

There are a few teams that tend to lose points throughout the meet, but there are other teams like Texas that make huge leaps during the meet. Last year, Texas was not predicted in the top two, but finished second as a team to California. They improved 253.5 points from their seed, which is the most over the last 6 seasons

And the number that gives Cal fans across the globe hope: despite being vastly outseeded by their opponents from Texas, the defending champions have improved as compared to seed each of the last 5 years, including by 216.5 points last year.

Point differential from NCAA psych sheet scoring to actual scoring from 2009 to 2014:

diff-14

diff-13

diff-12

diff-11

diff-10

diff-09

Alabama

-18.5

19

1

6

-18

15

Arizona State

23

50

36

27

48

0

Auburn

-3

-42.5

-51.5

-17.5

-81.5

94

Arizona 

-32.5

90.5

-12

59

53

47

California

216.5

116.5

209.5

55

173

-34

duke

36

54

3

35

50

eastern michigan

15

12

0

florida

-4

-8

7

-79

-56

68

florida state

-45

-95

-9

17

18

-36

georgia

55

34

9.5

-28.5

-65.5

35

georgia tech

-2.5

-30

-13

Indiana

28

-2

59

-46

41

16

Iowa

14

-36

.

Kentucky

8

45

33

-86

12

louisville

27

34

11

60

34

-31

Louisiana State

7

14

9

12

-16

0

Michigan

-66

-30

-82

-25

-115

5

Minnesota

-8

18

18

-3

31

24

Missouri

91

47

44

31

44

0

North Carolina 

-8

38.5

59

4

-35

North Carolina State

-146.5

-21

.

Notre Dame

-21

-5

-5

Northwestern

-1

5

5

0

Ohio State

-51

-14

-28

-49

-31

43

Penn State

-26

-3

-13

-17

14

-4

Purdue

-4

5

-16

62

88

72

SMU

.

-11

.

-8

4

-4

Southern Cal

25

30

-44

14

90

29

South Carolina

8

-15

-11

2

-4

Stanford

112

97

82.5

35

1

31.5

Texas A+M

-29

-8

34

59.5

17.5

80

Tennessee

-29

-54

17

-21.5

24.5

1

Texas

253.5

134.5

246

147.5

106.5

79

UNLV

20

9

.

-35

56

-15

Utah

-7

9

Virginia

-6

-13

-4

47

75

-46

Virginia Tech

19

3

40

11

11

0.5

Wisconsin

-28

28

-15

13

15

-11

Wyoming

3

-3

.

5

5

West Virginia

5

3

7

-2

9
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calswimfan

“California is another team to watch. Last year was the first year in the last six where they didn’t improve from their predicted seed.”

Typo?

LOLLERcoaster
calswimfan

But they still outperformed their seed I believe. A moot point now since the article seems to have been updated!

Schiller

Related analysis (D1 is below D3):
http://d3swimming.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=6776

Joel Lin

Stanford has always had a rep for leaving their best at the conference meet. Boy is that wrong given the points pick up, and not what I’d have guessed. Kind of shocked the lowest on charts is Michigan. I would not have guessed them as a program slipping as a second taper from their conference to this meet.

ET

All the Big 10 schools seem to leave too much at the conference meet. It’s an emotional meet and I think many get swept into the madness there. It will be interesting to see how they perform this year after a little more average Big 10’s.

On that note it will be interesting to see where USC ends up after their stellar Pac 12’s.

About Tony Carroll

Tony Carroll

The writer formerly known as "Troy Gennaro", better known as Tony Carroll, has been working with SwimSwam since April of 2013. Tony grew up in northern Indiana and started swimming in 2003 when his dad forced him to join the local swim team. Reluctantly, he joined on the condition that …

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