Note: This is an opinion piece, not a comprehensive breakdown of all potential contenders for each event. As always, SwimSwam will provide event-by-event previews for each race at NCAAs after the conference meets wrap up, so not every contender in an event will be picked or discussed.
Braden Keith, James Sutherland, Madeline Folsom, Robert Gibbs, Anya Pelshaw, and Terin Frodyma contributed to this report.
It’s the beginning of the 2025-26 NCAA season, which means it’s time to make our early picks for who this season’s NCAA champions are going to be. Like last year, the SwimSwam staff debated who they think will win each event and listed them in the table below.
Compared to our women’s picks, there’s a little less uniformity. We agreed on 6 of 18 winners (33.3%), versus 8 of 18 (44.4%) on the women’s side.
The entire staff thinks Texas senior Hubert Kos will sweep his three individual events, as he did last year. He’s the NCAA and U.S. Open record holder in both backstroke events and is tied for second-quickest all-time in the 200 IM.
The 200 back and 200 IM are fairly safe bets, but Florida junior Jonny Marshall is just 0.02 behind in the 100 back, which shapes up for an exciting showdown if both are at their best this season.
The second unanimous pick for an individual event was the 200 butterfly, where everyone has defending champion and NCAA record holder Luca Urlando taking the gold medal. The Georgia swimmer is over 1.5 seconds quicker than any other active swimmer, and given he’s on par with last season’s form, he will start as the favorite once March rolls around.
Everyone also tapped Texas junior Rex Maurer to win his second-straight 400 IM title.
The final unanimous pick for an individual event: everyone chose Florida senior Josh Liendo to defend his title in the 100 free, where he enters as the only returning swimmer to have cracked 40 seconds. However, only 4/7 tabbed him to win his third-straight 100 fly title, with Anya and Terin selecting Ilya Kharun while Braden predicts a Thomas Heilman freshman win. Liendo’s best stands at the 43.07 he produced at the 2024 NCAAs, while Kharun’s 43.43 stems from his runner-up finish last year and Heilman’s 43.86 best comes from the 2024 Winter Juniors.
The 50 free was also a toss-up, with Liendo being the most picked at 4/7. Robert selected Kharun, while Sean and Terin chose Tennessee senior Gui Caribe. With the only man who broke 18 last year in Jordan Crooks graduating, Liendo enters as the top returner at 18.23 from NCAAs, where he took second. Caribe sits just behind at 18.26 for bronze, with Kharun at 18.31 for fourth. Liendo has been 18.07 to win the 2023 title, and a sub-18 could be on his mind this year. Caribe is somebody who has shown steady improvement over the past three seasons and seems to always rise to the occasion.
Outside of individual events, everyone selected Arizona State to win the 200 and 400 free relays, while 6/7 think they will take the 200 and 400 medley relays as well. Five out of seven chose Texas to win the 800 free relay, while Braden and Terin picked the potential upside of Virginia with their freshman duo of Maximus Williamson and Heilman.
For the medleys, Florida lost their top breaststroker in Julian Smith but retains all of their other legs from last year’s 400 medley relay, which shattered the NCAA record at SECs before winning the national crown. They still have Lithuanian senior Aleksas Savickas, who has been as quick as 50.73, just over a second shy of Smith’s flat-start best. However, Smith’s ability to split sub-49 from a relay exchange will be a big loss for the Gators and could be all it takes to swing the gold to the Sun Devils’ favor.
Arizona State added Florida transfer Adam Chaney in the offseason, improving their backstroke leg from 45.25 at last year’s NCAAs to a potential sub-44, as Chaney’s best rests at 43.99. All of their other legs return this season.
Texas’ relay certainly can’t be discounted either, as they will likely feature Will Modglin on back, Nate Germonprez or Campbell McKean on breast, and Kos on fly, with freestyle being the question mark—though French freshman Rafael Fente-Damers is the likely pick.
In last year’s 400 medley relay, Florida stopped the clock first, followed by Texas and ASU.
In the 200 medley relay, Texas won, followed by Tennessee and California. Florida actually finished first but was disqualified, with ASU taking fourth. It’s more of the same story with the same swimmers playing a factor and the same legs being affected. Chaney brings a 50 back time 1.10 seconds faster than the 21.29 freshman Lucien Vergnes produced last year, putting them well into sub-1:20 territory if everyone is firing on all cylinders.
A near-unanimous pick came in the 200 free, where six out of seven panelists selected UVA freshman Maximus Williamson, who has the fastest time on paper at 1:30.46. James was the lone dissenter, choosing Georgia’s Tomas Koski, who was sixth at NCAAs last year and owns a 1:30.70 best time from the 2025 SEC Championships.
In the 500 free, 6/7 picked Maurer, with James selecting Florida freshman Ahmed Jaouadi. Maurer is the second-fastest man in history and the defending champion, while Jaouadi, coming off 800 and 1500m world titles this past July, has an unknown ceiling in yards and is better the longer the races go.
The 1650 free was fairly split, with Robert, Madeline, and Anya picking Indiana junior Zalan Sarkany to defend his title, while Sean, James, and Terin think Jaouadi will rise to the occasion in his NCAA debut. Braden picked Maurer, who was third last year, to have a big drop and produce a surprise win.
The breaststroke winners were very split among the panel. In the 100, four out of seven panelists picked Texas freshman Campbell McKean to win, while three predict Texas junior Nate Germonprez will walk away with victory. Germonprez is the top returner at 50.29 from his third-place finish at last year’s NCAAs and has a best time of 50.14 from SECs, while McKean enters with a best time of 51.28.
The 200 breaststroke saw similarly divided opinions, with four out of seven picking Germonprez to win the event where he took ninth last year in 1:49.71. Sean and Braden have Louisville sophomore Jacob Eccleston—who was seventh with a 1:50.29 best time in prelims—eking out a win. James feels that Cal sophomore Yamato Okadome has what it takes to snag the gold medal in a few months’ time. He was sixth last year in 1:50.23 and owns a best of 1:50.19 from the 2025 ACCs.
Without further ado, below are the ballots.
Not picking the national record holders in the medley is a mistake
Loving the Koski shout
Wow, everybody has a ton of confidence in Arizona State’s relays!
They delivered for the most part last year. They should handily win the sprint free relays, though Florida can challenge in the medleys if their new breaststroker comes through
williamson is not winning the 200fr
Kalshi’s got 50/50 odds on Jassen Yep returning for a sixth year to throw down another 2 breast title
With Destin gone Hubi is safe (probably) in the 200 back/IM. In the 100 back however – botched turn notwithstanding – Marshall is only 0.02 behind.
Braden thinks Max, King, and Heilman are splitting 1:28s
Jonny Kulow takes the 100 free