Mid season taper meets have started for college programs, so we have a pretty good idea of the strengths of different teams. NC State looks like the clear best team so far. Many of defending champion Texas’s top swimmers sat out some of the early season meets, so they may rise in the ranking as time goes on. NC State did beat Texas head to head with many of those top swimmers participating, so their position as top dog appears solid for now. They lead the Swimulator simulation of nationals (which doesn’t include diving) based on both best times:
| Team | Simulated Score | |
| 1 | NC State | 333 |
| 2 | Louisville | 309 |
| 3 | Florida | 262 |
| 4 | Missouri | 230 |
| 5 | Alabama | 214 |
and average times this season:
| Team | Simulated Score | |
| 1 | NC State | 380 |
| 2 | Michigan | 184 |
| 3 | Florida | 177 |
| 4 | Alabama | 173 |
| 5 | California | 172 |
Not every team has swum their mid season meet yet (the Texas Invite starts tomorrow), so the rankings based on top times are a bit suspect. However, the rankings last year based on average times at this point were pretty accurate in predicting the finals results. The main misses were over predicting Auburn’s score and under predicting Florida. Florida’s average time score of 177 points is almost an exact match for their 176 last year in the average time rankings thru 12/1, but last year the top end teams were more dominant over the rest of the field at this point. Last year’s runner up Cal’s current (relatively) low ranking may be reason for concern as their mid season average time score very closely reflected their actual score last year. Here are the Swimulator average time rankings last year through 12/1/15 (the Texas Invite started on 12/2/15 last year):
| Team | Simulated Score as of 12/1/15 | Actual Score (w/ divers) | |
| 1 | Texas | 439 | 541 |
| 2 | California | 328 | 351 |
| 3 | Auburn | 303 | 166 |
| 4 | NC State | 282 | 314 |
| 5 | Georgia | 243 | 239 |
The best times ranking through 12/1/15 wasn’t very reflective of NCAA’s last year. This makes sense as only some teams had done a mid season rest yet. The same logic applies to this year’s best time ranking right now. Here’s the best time ranking through 12/1/15:
| Team | Simulated Score as of 12/1/15 | Actual Score (w/ divers) | |
| 1 | Florida | 467 | 334 |
| 2 | Louisville | 390 | 164 |
| 3 | Alabama | 324 | 225 |
| 4 | Missouri | 321 | 184 |
| 5 | NC State | 266 | 314 |
But honistly, was this really a suprise too anyone? Although, do appreciate the STATEment
Why are there no relays for Missouri?
Yeah, there seems to be a lot of holes in their data. Many of the first-round invitational relays are missing. Some swimmers are missing. And, some team’s dual meet times are missing.
Helds been averaging 19.32 holy quick
Impressively ahead of Dressel’s 19.34 average (not listed, but I calculated it off his 4 50 free finals races (18.73 relay lead-off included) so far this season, which shows impressively consistent speed throughout the season. This shows tremendous work by the NC State coaches and Held to be able to race all-out whenever, wherever, regardless of suit/shave.
But season-averages don’t mean much about championship season, I don’t think anyone would reasonably believe that Held could upset Dressel at the big dance in March.
Never understood why swimming media does all of these predictions at this time of year. Either before the first round of college invites or just wait until after the second bunch. It’s meaningless when looking at it this way.
We need something to bridge the gap between invites and championships. Texas will need some help to repeat. I think they have individual stars but not sure the depth is there.
Texas needs help? really? Their ‘help” is called Joe Schooling, Townley Haas, Jack Conger, Clark Smith, Will Licon, John Shebat, Ryan Harty, Jonathan Roberts, Brett Ringgold, Tate Jackson, etc. They’ll be just fine in March.
Really. I’ll have a better feel Saturday night.
Good luck with Ryan Harty! I’d be surprise if he is actually competing this year. Will Licon will be back, but not sure if he can take on UGA boys in the 4IM & 2 breast if his groins aren’t ready to go! Here’s how the rest of the Texas crew scored at the 2016 NCAA Championships:
Jonathan Roberts – 7 pts
Clark Smith – 5 pts
Tate Jackson – 0
John shebat – 6 pts
So how is going to score big other than Schooling, Conger, Licon, Ringgold & divers? Big lost is Murray…. he was a major impact on all of their sprint relays last year.
NC STATE will not have enough to challenge… Read more »
NC State looks great right now but come March the Longhorns and Bears will be there. Its going to be great!!