The big guns were out in full force on day 2. On the women’s side, event winners included budding star Liz Pelton in the 100 back and Chloe Sutton in the 400 free. For the men, Cesar Cielo took a close 50 freestyle over American star Cullen Jones. Eric Shanteau (200 breaststroke) and Nick Thoman (100 backstroke) also grabbed wins.
Nobody has looked all that fast this meet, but that’s expected. Many of the 20-something stars are training at their peak before tapering down for the Pan-Am games this summer. The college and high-school stars are coming off of their taper meets, and wouldn’t be expected to be in the condition to throw up great times. Regardless, there has still been 2 days of great racing, and I look for more of the same on the final day.
Women’s Races
200 Meter Backstroke
Andy’s Picks:
- Winner: Elizabeth Pelton (NBAC)
- Runner-up: Dagny Knutson (ASK)
- Dark-horse: Emily Creran (swimming unattached out of Ohio)
- Comments: Pelton will undoubtedly take this event, but look for a great race for second, third, and fourth places with Creran making her way into the A final and possibly the top 6.
Braden’s Picks:
- Winner: Liz Pelton (NBAC)
- Runner-Up: Kylie Stewart (Marietta Marlins)
- Darkhorse: Taylor Sneed (Germantown)
- Comments: Pelton is the best in the field in this event, and she has been having a very good meet. Sounds like a recipe for another victory. Second will come down to Dagny Knutson and Stewart, but Stewart is one of the few top swimmers who has been dropping time in the field. She comes in with the number 2 seed, and if she continues to drop time, it’s unlikely that anyone behind her will catch her. Sneed performed very well in the 100, and will sneak into the top 5, if not higher.
100 Meter Freestyle
Andy’s Picks:
- Winner: Erika Erndl (Swim)
- Runner-up: Christine Marshall (Auburn)
- Dark-horse: Chloe Sutton (Mission Viejo)
- Comments: This is the race for the two veterans to compete. Yes, there are a couple of close seeds, but Erndl and Marshall will most likely go head to head all the way to the finish. As for Sutton (my dark-horse), I can’t bet against her right now…even though this isn’t her event, I can see her competing for a top spot.
Braden’s Picks:
- Winner: Vanessa Garcia (Puerto Rico)
- Runer-Up: Jasmine Tosky (Palo-Alto)
- Darkhorse: Chloe Sutton (Mission Viejo)
- Comments: Garcia won the 500 with relative ease (.36 seconds), and is better at the 100. I like the 16-year-olds Tosky and Schaefer to duke it out for second, as both have been having amazing meets so far. Don’t sleep on the cagey vet Erika Erndl, either. Sutton, while obviously the leader of the Gramd Prix series, gets the darkhorse nod as she’s only seeded 13th in the event, which she is not typically great at. In the 200, she showed that she’s expanded her repertoire and bettered her speed a bit. I think she’ll show that again in the 100, and could sneak into a very tight top 6.
200 Meter Butterfly
Andy’s Picks:
- Winner: Jasmine Tosky (swimming unattached)
- Runner-up: Felicia Lee (NBAC)
- Dark-horse: Chloe Sutton
- Comments: I have been extremely impressed with Jasmine Tosky’s swims so far throughout the meet. I think it’ll be a close race, but I can definitely see Tosky taking out Lee for first place. With that said, I understand that Sutton has a packed day going back to back events, but (again), I can’t bet against her right now.
Braden’s Picks:
- Winner: Felicia Lee (NBAC)
- Runner-Up: Jasmine Tosky (Palo-Alto)
- Darkhorse: Angelina Prat (Sierra Marlins ST)
- Comments: Felicia Lee is the obvious choice to win this race. Tosky, who won the 100, will be swimming this event back-to-back with the 100 free, so probably won’t be able to take down Lee again, but has a good chance of finishing second. There’s no real good darkhorse pick, but I’ll choose Angelina Prat from Fulsom, California. She’s been having a fairly good meet, and the 200 fly is her best event.
Men’s Meet
200 Meter Backstroke
Andy’s Picks:
- Winner: Nick Thoman (MAC)
- Runner-up: Markus Rogan (USC)
- Dark-horse: Brennan Morris (NBAC)
- Comments: Thoman swam great in the 100 back (as did Rogan), but look for Tyler Clary (Michigan) to push for the top spots as well. My thoughts, in all honesty, is that Clary will touch in third barely behind Rogan and Thoman touching ahead of Rogan by about .5 or so. Brennan Morris, though I see him possibly hitting the A final, I can’t see him finishing faster than 6th.
Braden’s Picks:
- Winner: Nick Thoman (MAC)
- Runner-Up: Patrick Schirk (Penn State)
- Darkhorse: Brennan Morris (NBAC)
- Comments: Thoman showed up ready to swim in the 100, but his endurance will be tested in the 200. He’s swimming against a group that specializes in the 200 distance, including Schirk, the 2008 NCAA National Champion in the event.
100 Meter Freestyle
Andy’s Picks:
- Winner: Cesar Cielo (Auburn)
- Runner-up: Cullen Jones (MAC)
- Dark-horse: Nicholas Santos (Auburn)
- Comments: Cielo is one of the most prolific sprinters out there currently and will take this event. However, Jones will most likely challenge Cielo thoughout the first 50 and fall back in the back 50 touching in second by .5 or less. Also, look for George Bovell (Auburn) to make a strong stand. Nicholas Santos, if all goes his way should be in the A final and he should contend for a top 5 finish. This should be one of the best races of the evening.
Braden’s Picks:
- Winner: Cesar Cielo (Auburn)
- Runner-Up: Cullen Jones (MAC)
- Darkhorse: Joseph Skuba (MAC)
- Comments: Cielo and Jones will again duke it out, with Cielo’s teammate George Bovell hoping to sneak in and maybe spoil the party. Skuba, who is Jones’ teammate, should also be able to step up and challenge an elite field.
200 Meter Butterfly
Andy’s Picks:
- Winner: Tyler Clary (Michigan)
- Runner-up: Peng Wu (CW)
- Dark-horse: Ellis Miller (NBAC)
- Comments: The seeding in this event is just too open between the first two seeds and the rest of the field. Tyler Clary has been on his game, and I see him taking this event with Wu finishing in second. Now, with my dark-horse pick, Ellis Miller and his teammate Patrick Murphy train with the best. And, when you train with the best, you start to adopt some of the best habits. I can definitely see these two working their way up in the field and possibly taking 6th and 7th in this event.
Braden’s Picks:
- Winner: Mark Hsu (Club Wolverine)
- Runner-Up: Peng Wu (Club Wolverine)
- Darkhorse: Patrick Murphy (NBAC)
- Comments: Michigan’s Tyler Clary is the top seed, but look for one of his CW teammates to win the event. Hsu swam a best time in the 100 fly to finish fourth, and is much better in the 200, so I think he can win it. Like with the women, there’s no good upset pick here, so I’ll go with Patrick Murphy of NBAC.
Do you have any different picks or feedback on ours? Feel free to comment in the area below!
And after all of that, Clary pulled out of both events (says DQ’ed but I doubt he swam) and Lee dropped out of the 200 fly.
Andy, most of your picks look good except for the Clary picks (haha, obviously), and I can’t see Christine Marshall placing so high in the 100 free. I think it’s between Garcia, Tosky, Schaefer, and maybe Pelton for second and third.
Start lists for the mile are up on the results page (http://ohiostatebuckeyes.com/fls/17300/livestats/swim/index.htm?SPSID=89211&SPID=10398&DB_OEM_ID=17300). I’d go with Koehler or Frayler
In the end, Clary got DQ’ed (so it says) in both. (I don’t think he actually swam it.) Lee pulled out of the 200 fly, and it’s Knutson who leads the field – she’s obviously been in hard training, and the weekend at the meet actually gives her some rest, so maybe she could step up and win this one.
Start list for the mile is up on the results page (http://ohiostatebuckeyes.com/fls/17300/livestats/swim/index.htm?SPSID=89211&SPID=10398&DB_OEM_ID=17300).
Yep, didn’t pick the mile, because I didn’t know who would be in it.
I think at the end of his second long meet, two weekends in a row, Clary is just going to be wiped out. That’s why I didn’t like him in either of his events on the last day. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if he scratched one or the other of them. I used the same logic on Trosky, who will be swimming her 8th event, versus Lee, only on her 4th. This is not the time of season where most athletes can handle these huge event loads and still look good on the last day.
Braden, I actually disagree with most of your predictions.
Women’s 100 free: Garcia might be better at the 100 than the 50, but so is Erndl; in fact, Erndl is a 100/200 swimmer, not so much the 50. I say she wins it.
Women’s 200 fly: Lee is much more of a 100 swimmer, while Tosky has proven to be very versatile and very able to handle doubles. I think she gets it done.
Men’s 200 back: It’s a four-man race with Schirk, Thoman, 2004 silver medalist Rogan, and Tyler Clary, in the event which is possibly the most natural to him.
Men’s 200 fly: I wouldn’t pick against Wu Peng, who was second to Michael Phelps back at the… Read more »
Whelp, looks like both Clary and Lee went home early. A little surprised by Lee (although I have a feeling that was Bowman’s decision, not hers), but for Clary it just made sense.
Don’t look now, but Hsu won the prelim in the 200 fly. Should be a good final between him and Peng. The women’s 100 free prelim was very tight with Erndl on top, followed by Tosky and Garcia. Those 3 should be very tight for the top 3, and then the rest of the field fighting for 4th.