Women’s NCAAs Day 2 Scoring Analysis: Texas Continues To Hold Steady While Cal Builds Momentum

2026 NCAA Division I Women’s Swimming and Diving Championships

Day 2 of the 2026 NCAA Women’s Swimming and Diving Championships has officially wrapped up with Virginia still maintaining their strong lead in the quest for their 6th-straight title. The Virginia women have been on fire so far, even after losing the Walsh sisters this season, as they have put up 249 points through two days. Texas continues to trail behind in 2nd with 183 points, with Stanford close behind with 173 points.

Top 10 Teams Through Day 2:

  1. Virginia — 249
  2. Texas — 183
  3. Stanford — 173
  4. Tennessee — 158.5
  5. California — 133
  6. Michigan — 132
  7. Indiana — 128
  8. Louisville — 79
  9. NC State — 76
  10. Florida — 62.5

Now that we have the overall picture out of the way, it’s important to look at how the teams fared relative to their seeds in terms of points. While small point margins might not appear to make a difference, it can be a huge factor in momentum as the meet continues. Plus, as the meet continues, it will become clear how close some of the margins might be in the team battle.

Day 2: Projected vs. Actual Scores

Team Projected Day 2 Adjusted Actual Day 2 Difference
California 63.5 84 +20.5
Texas A&M 0 10 +10
Akron 0 9 +9
Northwestern 0 8 +8
Stanford 106.5 114 +7.5
Arizona 12 19 +7
USC 19 25 +6
UCLA 6 12 +6
Tennessee 87 92.5 +5.5
Indiana 71.5 77 +5.5
Virginia Tech 3 6 +3
Pittsburgh 0 3 +3
Texas 75.5 78 +2.5
UNC 0 2 +2
Cincinnati 9 11 +2
UC San Diego 0 1 +1
Ohio State 13 13 0
LSU 12 12 0
Auburn 6 6 0
Florida 17 16.5 -0.5
Alabama 26 25 -1
Georgia 7 4 -3
Duke 13 9 -4
Wisconsin 8 4 -4
Virginia 155.5 149 -6.5
Fresno State 11 2 -9
NC State 59 48 -11
Louisville 48.5 20 -28.5
Michigan 99 70 -29

After suffering a relay DQ on Day 1 of the meet, Cal managed to stage a big comeback tonight, improving 20.5 points on their projection. The Bears saw a big addition from freshman Teagan O’Dell, who improved from the 13th seed in the 400 IM to the 3rd place finisher in finals to score 16.0 points. Despite their relay DQ, the Bears are swimming really well compared to their seeds, which could make a big difference as the team battle comes down to the wire. Currently, Cal sits 5th with 133 points, only 1 point ahead of Michigan and 25 points behind Tennessee.

Out of the top three schools, Texas is actually holding the closest to their projected psych sheet points vs. their actual points total. On Day 2, Texas was projected to rack up 75.5 points based on the initial psych sheets, while the team actually picked up 78 total. The team also saw big improvement in the 200 freestyle relay, moving up 3 spots from 10th seed to 7th in the final, scoring +10 points in that event. For Texas, these points will remain critical as the team battles Stanford for 2nd throughout the rest of the meet.

While the Longhorns saw +2.5 points today, the Stanford women picked up +7.5 points compared to their seed, a larger margin. Stanford saw Torri Huske win the 100 butterfly and had 2 finalists in the 400 IM. However, a majority of that differential can be seen further back in their roster, as they have many of their athletes scoring better vs. projection back in 9th to 16th, the places that previously would’ve made up the NCAA B-final prior to this year.

Tennessee was another team that saw a solid gain on Day 2, coming in at +5.5 points compared to seed. That helped the Volunteers strengthen their position in 4th, as they ended the day with 158.5 points overall.

On the other side of the table, Louisville suffered major losses on night 2, coming in -28.5 points under seed. Most of that can be attributed to the team’s 200 freestyle relay being disqualified after initially finishing 2nd and entering the meet as the 3rd seed. That disqualification cost the team 34 points. While those 34 points wouldn’t change the team’s ranking in the current battle, as they sit at 79 points behind Indiana’s 128 points, it could have a big implication on the final standings.

Michigan also largely under-performed relative to their projected points, coming in -23 points despite holding their seed in the 200 freestyle relay. While the Michigan women have looked great all season, they will need to find some momentum to continue their push into the top 5.

While they still lead the meet, the Virginia Cavaliers were also slightly under their projection today, only scoring 149 points while projected to score 155.5. The 400 IM was projected to be Virginia’s highest-scoring event, but the team lost some points as none of their athletes in the event improved upon or matched their seed times.

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Wethorn
2 months ago

SwimSwam – you really need to account for diving in this kind of analysis. This article is misleading or at least fails to understand what’s going on.

Almost all of the top gainers vs the swimming psych scoring are from diving.

I’d suggest you add diving projected points to the points from the swimming Pysch sheet. Rank order diving zone scores and add them in.

Only then can you get into meaningful analysis of what’s actually changed vs predicted.

JeahBrah
Reply to  Wethorn
2 months ago

I remember they tried the projected diver ranking by zone score one year and it was very inaccurate.

I think the point would get across by showing a tabulation of projected vs actual swimming score, and an additional column adding in diving scores as that does matter for projecting the final team ranking.

JimSwim22
Reply to  JeahBrah
2 months ago

Yes, that would show the swimming momentum.

Bing chilling
Reply to  Wethorn
2 months ago

Diving is much more unpredictable, also is a biased sport that has no business being a part of the swimming championships

SpaceUnit
2 months ago

Are we going to get a post about Bella Sims’ 400IM? Her underwaters in the breaststroke let her fend off the attackers in her weakest stroke. It was awesome.

SQUID!
Reply to  SpaceUnit
2 months ago

I was impressed. 1:09 is a very good split for her (still by far her weakest, but great improvement)

MigBike
2 months ago

Meeechegun is winning the lost point challenge, with no dqs, in all fairness and my bet is they will dominate this category.
The possible winner of the “Riding the donkey backward annual award”.

About Nicole Miller

Nicole Miller

Nicole has been with SwimSwam since April 2020, as both a reporter and social media contributor. Prior to joining the SwimSwam platform, Nicole also managed a successful Instagram platform, amassing over 20,000 followers. A graduate of Worcester Polytechnic Institute with a Bachelor's Degree in Biology and Biotechnology, she was also a …

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