Infostrada Sports, the manager of the world’s largest sports database, has just released its virtual medal projections for the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympic Games.
The Virtual Medal Table (VMT) utilizes myriad of data to predict the most likely gold, silver and bronze medalists as if the Games were being held today. A proprietary algorithm is applied to generate findings based purely on objective data, according to Infostrada. The company cites its example of predicting 67 total medals for Great Britain in London, and only being off by 2 (GBR would win a total of 65).
In terms of overall performance for the United States in Rio, the model renders good news, as the country is projected to be atop the medal table in Rio with 97 total medals, 47 of them predicted to be gold, with half of the medals expected to be won by the United States from swimming and athletics.. As positive as this sounds, 97 is still short of the 104 America took home from London in 2012.
Michael Phelps factors into the mix with the VMT banking on his four-peat golds in the 100m butterfly and 200m IM events, tying him with track and field icons Al Oerter (discus) and Carl Lewis (long jump), for the most consecutive Olympic titles in the same individual event.
Already legendary distance swimmer Katie Ledecky is slated to take home golds in the 400m and 800m freestyle events, as well as bronze in the 200m freestyle. Missy Franklin is pegged to stand on top of the podium in the 200m, as well as the 100m and 200m backstroke races. Speedster Nathan Adrian is predicted to win silver in the men’s 100m freestyle, and silver is pegged for Jessica Hardy in the 100m breaststroke, according to the predictive algorithm.
In terms of U.S. rivals, Australia’s Christian Sprenger is identified as the 100m breaststroke gold medalist, with his countrymen James Magnussen winning the 100m freestyle and Cate Campbell earning golds in both the 50m and 100m freestyles. Frenchman Yannick Agnel is slated to win the 200m freestyle event, according to the predictive model.
Below is the static Virtual Medal Table with overall medal standings, followed by the specific swimming events contributing to the United States total. To retrieve the entire list of events with their predictive outcomes per country, seek the interactive VMT here.
Predicted U.S. Individual Swimming Event Medal Winners
Men’s 100 backstroke – Matt Grevers, Gold
Women’s 100 backstroke – Missy Franklin, Gold
Men’s 200 backstroke – Tyler Clary, Gold; Ryan Lochte, Bronze
Women’s 200 backstroke – Missy Franklin, Gold
Women’s 100 breaststroke – Jessica Hardy, Silver
Men’s 100 butterfly – Michael Phelps, Gold
Women’s 200 butterfly – Cammile Adams, Bronze
Men’s 200 IM – Michael Phelps, Gold; Ryan Lochte, Bronze
Women’s 200 IM – Maya DiRado, Bronze
Men’s 400 IM – Chase Kalisz, Silver
Women’s 400 IM – Elizabeth Beisel, Silver
Men’s 100 freestyle – Nathan Adrian, Silver
Women’s 200 freestyle – Missy Franklin, Silver; Katie Ledecky, Bronze
Women’s 400 freestyle – Katie Ledecky, Gold; Allison Schmitt, Bronze
Women’s 800 freestyle – Katie Ledecky, Gold
Men’s 1500m freestyle – Connor Jaeger, Bronze