Fishback Brings the Numbers: Michigan Still Projected Favorites, But Gap Closing Mid-Day

First, a few bonus pictures from this morning’s prelims session, thanks to Tim Binning.

USC sophomore Cristian Quintero prepares to take the top seed in the men's 200 free. (photo: Tim Binning, TheSwimPictures.com)

USC sophomore Cristian Quintero prepares to take the top seed in the men’s 200 free. (photo: Tim Binning, TheSwimPictures.com)

Freshman Chase Kalisz was part of a youth movement in the 400 IM. His top seed made him one of four freshmen in the A-Final. (Photo: Tim Binning/TheSwimPictures.com)

Freshman Chase Kalisz was part of a youth movement in the 400 IM. His top seed made him one of four freshmen in the A-Final. (Photo: Tim Binning/TheSwimPictures.com)

Tom Shields, leading off the 100 back, which will be the second swim he has in the finals session. (Photo: Tim Binning/TheSwimPictures.com)

Tom Shields, leading off the 100 back, which will be the second swim he has in the finals session. (Photo: Tim Binning/TheSwimPictures.com)

 

Now, some numbers. University of Arizona economics professor Price V. Fishback is back with some more analysis for tonight’s finals session.

Here’s a little key to explain what you’re looking at:

Gain/Loss Final vs Psych Thursday – How much each team improved on Thursday (day one) of this meet as compared to psych sheets

Gain/Loss Friday Prelim v. Psych – How much each team improved or lost on Friday morning (day two) if things came out exactly how they were in prelims.

Psych Scores Saturday – How many points each team is expected to score, according to the psych sheet, on Saturday.

Final Score Actual Thursday, Prelim Friday, Psych Saturday – combining the best available numbers from each day into one figure, this is the current best “on paper” prediction of where the meet will come out.

Gain/Loss Thu, Fri – This is how many total points each team has improved through the first two days, if Friday’s finals turn out exactly like prelims were.

*Note – as there is no “seeding” for diving, these numbers do not include Friday or Saturday diving. They do include Thursday diving that is final, however. 

TEAM Gain/ Loss Final vs. Psych Thursday Gain/ Loss Friday Prelim v. Psych Predicted Final Score Friday Night Psych Scores Saturday Final Score  Actual Thursday, Prelim Friday, Psych Saturday Psych Sheet Final Score Gain/ Loss Thu, Fri
mi -13 -33 338 126 464 510 -46
cal 51.5 13 280.5 74 354.5 290 64.5
fl 20 -23 181 112 293 296 -3
socal 2 27 215 73 288 259 29
az 28 36 222 65 287 223 64
au 0.5 0 182.5 87 269.5 269 0.5
tx 72 36 203 56 259 151 108
st 34 39 179 79 258 185 73
in 13 -16 152 48 200 203 -3
ga -27 18 92 28 120 129 -9
osu -10 -5 71 15 86 101 -15
ncs -28 10 42 35 77 95 -18
lou 18 -8 36 33 69 59 10
wi 2 10 51 17 68 56 12
tn -7 -47 36 23 59 113 -54
psu 22 -19 45 13 58 55 3
fsu -60 -19 34 22 56 135 -79
mo 16 6 40 15 55 33 22
mn 10 4 30 19 49 35 14
va 0 0 22 13 35 35 0
vt -19 5 34 1 35 49 -14
ha -10 -9 0 29 29 48 -19
tam -13 0 14 13 27 40 -13
asu 23 0 23 3 26 3 23
pu -1 0 19 1 20 21 -1
duke 17 0 17 0 17 0 17
io 8 8 16 0 16 0 16
lsu 2 4 9 7 16 10 6
ky 15 0 15 0 15 0 15
nc -2 -6 4 11 15 23 -8
unlv 10 -1 15 0 15 6 9
br 0 -16 0 12 12 28 -16
dart -3 0 0 12 12 15 -3
emich 0 0 0 12 12 12 0
pr 0 0 0 10 10 10 0
smu -10 0 0 9 9 19 -10
ut 6 0 6 2 8 2 6
socar -12 0 0 7 7 19 -12
msu 0 -5 4 2 6 11 -5
wy 0 1 5 0 5 4 1
al 0 1 2 0 2 1 1
nd 0 -11 0 1 1 12 -11

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stephanie
8 years ago

you guys are great. keep up the EXCELLENT work. & go bears!

About Braden Keith

Braden Keith

Braden Keith is the Editor-in-Chief and a co-founder/co-owner of SwimSwam.com. He first got his feet wet by building The Swimmers' Circle beginning in January 2010, and now comes to SwimSwam to use that experience and help build a new leader in the sport of swimming. Aside from his life on the InterWet, …

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