With Ilya Kharun announcing his plans to represent the United States in international competition moving forward, the bar in American men’s butterfly has been raised.
Over the last decade, the U.S. men have largely relied on Caeleb Dressel to deliver medals on the global stage in the sprint butterfly events, while the 200 fly has been a flop at the Olympics and World Championships outside of Michael Phelps winning Olympic gold in 2016 and Luca Urlando claiming the world title last summer.
Prior to Urlando’s victory at the 2025 World Championships, the American men hadn’t won a medal in the 200 fly at Worlds since Phelps won gold in 2011. At the Olympics, the U.S. had no finalists in the 200 fly in Paris after their best finish in Tokyo was 7th.
In the 100 fly, Dressel followed up back-to-back world titles in 2017 and 2019 by winning Olympic gold in 2021, and then Dare Rose got on the podium with a bronze medal at the 2023 World Championships. However, they had no finalists at the 2024 Olympics in the event, and at the 2025 Worlds, the Americans didn’t even have a swimmer advance to the semis.
The addition of Kharun brings stability to the discipline. His two bronze medals at the Paris Olympics are more than the U.S. has won in men’s butterfly over the past two Games combined, and he’s seemingly been able to consistently improve.
Last year (Jan. 1-Dec. 31, 2025), he would’ve ranked #1 among Americans in the 100 fly, sitting 3rd in the world, while in the 200 fly, he would sit 2nd to Urlando, finishing 4th in the world.
U.S. Men’s 100 Fly World Rankings – 2025 (Including Kharun)
- Ilya Kharun, 50.07 – 2025 World Championships
- Shaine Casas, 50.24 – 2025 U.S. Open
- Thomas Heilman, 50.70 – 2025 U.S. National Championships
- Dare Rose, 50.93 – 2025 Speedo Grand Challenge
- Trenton Julian, 51.18 – 2025 U.S. National Championships
- Aiden Hayes, 51.24 – 2025 U.S. National Championships
- Luca Urlando, 51.32 – 2025 Pro Swim Series – Sacramento
- Caeleb Dressel, 51.33 – 2025 U.S. Open
- Kamal Muhammad, 51.89 – 2025 U.S. National Championships
- Matthew Klinge, 52.11– 2025 U.S. National Championships
U.S. Men’s 200 Fly World Rankings – 2025 (Including Kharun)
- Luca Urlando, 1:51.87 – 2025 World Championships
- Ilya Kharun, 1:53.41 – 2025 Canadian Swimming Trials
- Carson Foster, 1:53.70 – 2025 U.S. National Championships
- Thomas Heilman, 1:54.03 – 2025 U.S. National Championships
- Gabriel Jett, 1:54.87 – 2025 U.S. National Championships
- Trenton Julian, 1:54.89 – 2025 U.S. Summer Championships
- Mason Laur, 1:54.97 – 2025 U.S. National Championships
- Jack Dahlgren, 1:55.18 – 2025 U.S. National Championships
- Mitchell Schott, 1:55.86 – 2025 U.S. National Championships
- Ryan Branon, 1:56.45 – 2025 Longhorn Elite Invite
In the all-time rankings, Kharun’s best times would rank #3 all-time among Americans in the 100 fly, only trailing Dressel (49.45) and Phelps (49.82), while in the 200 fly, he would also sit 3rd behind Phelps (1:51.51) and Urlando (1:51.87).
As for the 50 fly, a new Olympic event for 2028, Kharun would have also been the fastest American last year, with his 22.68 clocking from the Canadian Trials ranking 4th in the world. No Americans were under 23 seconds, with Dare Rose ranking 2nd at 23.02.
Dressel is the only U.S. man who has ever been faster than Kharun in the 50, setting the American Record of 22.35 back in 2019.
With the combination of Urlando and Kharun, the U.S. could easily be favored to go 1-2 in the 200 fly by the time we get to the 2027 World Championships, but we also can’t forget about Thomas Heilman, the up-and-coming teen who tied Kharun for 4th in the 200 fly back at the 2023 World Championships in a time of 1:53.82, and Carson Foster, who represented the U.S. alongside Urlando at the 2025 Worlds and placed 5th.
Things quickly become crowded in the 200 fly with the addition of Kharun, while in the 100 fly, things are even more up in the air, given the high-end ability (but also inconsistency) of Shaine Casas, the question of where Dressel will be next year, and Heilman and Rose are also capable of going 50-point.
As for the freestyle events, Kharun has shown an elite ability in the 50 and 100 free in short course yards, and he’s excelled in short course meters in the 50, but he’s yet to really show that in the long course pool, with best times sitting at 22.06 in the 50 and 49.37 in the 100.
Though he won’t be competing for the U.S. team at the 2026 Pan Pacs, Kharun will be eligible to contest the selection meet for the Short Course World Championships in the fall, with him officially able to compete for the U.S. on October 26, 2026.
Then, in 2027, he’ll be a leading candidate to make the American team for the LC World Championships in all three butterfly events, making an already crowded U.S. butterfly picture even harder to crack for everyone else.

I’m so excited I just can’t hide it. I was hoping he was going to come “home” but thought it would never happen. The best part is he’s only 20.
Didnt want to smoke the Josh Liendo pack no more
Oh wow. Did not see that coming but I guess it makes since given how he ended up repping Canada in the first place.
This will also make it ‘easier’ for swimmers from other countries to make finals or go for medals at Worlds/Olympics, instead of it being Kharun + 2 American swimmers it will now be 2 American swimmers (one fewer swimmers to compete against).
Soo, Kharun v. Dressel at Nationals this summer??
Ilya is very helpful, but we’ll still need a good 100 backstroker for 2027 worlds and LA28 that’s not Shaine Casas.
Boy some of yall are going to be shocked when Some guy named Will Modglin comes out of nowhere.
There’s also Hunter Armstrong who I’m confused why people fail to mention.
need him to actually show up to his events then we can talk.
Yeah besides Armstrong there’s also Murphy who I think took a break last year and he’s really consistent when it comes to qualify for the national team and unless he’s somehow going slow , I think he’s gonna be there for the backstroke comes LA.
Pretty sure he’s retired
Armstrong is beyond done atp
He’s too up and down.
people who didnt watch WUGs are exposing themselves
Will Modglin exists
Modglin. And also, Casas probably could swing back around to backstroke.
Modglin would like a word.
And BTW – I think Murph and Hunter will make a strong showing come 2028
And even more than that we need a top men’s 100 breast swimmer! I wish MA had been able to get his shit together, but it looks highly unlikely he will, so the Men’s Medley R and Mixed MR are longshots!
Didn’t some high school kid smoke everyone at Nationals in the breaststrokes last summer with essentially no major meet experience? Isn’t that same kid making big gains as a freshman this year? Fairly certain we have at least one dude on part to be the dude by at least LA28. I enjoyed MA’s prime but seems washed at this point.
We literally had an 18 year old go sub 59 last year. Come on lol
19 and he sadly didn’t back it up at world’s.
he was 18 when he went 58
Van Mathias is on the rise
stop ignoring Campbell lol
Can Kos change sporting nationality to USA too?
Way too Early 2027/2028 predictions: Kharun/Rose/Casas for the 50 Fly, Casas/Kharun for the 100 fly, and Urlando/Kharun for the 200 fly
I would be highly surprised if Dressel misses in both 50/100 fly
Same
It’s never too early. I’m crunching numbers, working on final times to the hundredth.
woah! I feel like I haven’t seen you in a million years!
Heilman is only 19. Give him two more years.
Could contend for a 400 Free Relay spot, if he wants to.
He’s too reliant on underwaters in freestyle. His PB in the 100 free is only .6 faster than his 100 fly, and the last time he swam it LC he was only .4 faster than his 100 fly. Not saying he can’t get there eventually, but dropping 2 seconds at that level already is hard to do in 2 years
He’s nowhere near top 6 though