Overreacting to Day 2 Prelims at the 2023 World Champs: Ruta Barreling Towards 100 BR WR

2023 WORLD AQUATICS CHAMPIONSHIPS

• July 23 to 30, 2023
• Fukuoka, Japan
• Marine Messe Fukuoka
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• Entry Book
• Live Results (Omega)
• Day 1 Prelims Live Recap | Day 1 Finals Live Recap
• Day 2 Prelims Live Recap

The day 2 prelims session at the 2023 World Championships in Fukuoka was relatively thin, featuring heats of the women’s 100 back, men’s 100 back, women’s 100 breast, men’s 200 free, and the women’s 1500 free. Though there were only five events this morning, there was still plenty to overreact about.

RUTA MEILUTYTE WILL NOT BE STOPPED

If someone had told me we were going to see a 1:04 in prelims of the women’s 100 breast before the meet started, I would have thought they were crazy. Why would they go that fast? We know going into the event that a low 1:06 is going to safely make it through to semis.

Well, Lithuania’s Ruta Meilutyte knew that going in as well, and evidently, she decided she didn’t care and threw down a blistering 1:04.67 anyway. It’s the 8th-fastest 100 breast of all-time, coming in just 0.54 seconds off Lilly King‘s World Record of 1:04.13. Additionally, the swim was just 0.32 seconds off Meilutyte’s career best of 1:04.35, which she swam back at the 2013 World Champs to set what was then the World Record, until King would come along and break it a few years later.

The easy conclusion is that Meilutyte is facing a pretty light schedule at this meet, and therefore decided to go for it prelims because why not? But, what if that’s not really the case, and Meilutyte actually does have more left in the tank for the next two rounds? It’s plausible. Since her return to the sport, Meilutyte has been steadily improving, to the point where she already clocked a new career best in the 50 breast last summer. Why couldn’t she also go a personal best in the 100 breast a year later?

I pose all those questions to say this: I think Ruta Meilutyte is going to reclaim the women’s 100 breast World Record, either in semifinals tonight or in tomorrow’s final. If she were to do it, Meilutyte would be reclaiming the World Record 10 years after she initially set it. In fact, I’m feeling bold, so I’ll take it a little further. I think Meilutyte will become the first woman to go under 1:04 in the 100 breast. We’ve already seen some stunning World Records in Fukuoka, why not add this one to the list?

THE UNITED STATES IS IN TROUBLE(?)

This may not be that much of an overreaction, honestly. Of course, as we’ve already reported, yesterday was the first time in over 20 years that the U.S. went without winning a gold medal on the first day of a World Championships. Now, that being said, the Americans weren’t really expected to win any of those events, except maybe the men’s 4×100 free, but even that I’m not so sure about. Still, it was at least a little bit of a down day for the U.S.

Well, day 2 prelims was a mixed bag. There were good swims, of course. Luke Hobson and Kieran Smith looked great in the men’s 200 free prelims. Katie Ledecky did Katie Ledecky things in the women’s 1500 prelims. Regan Smith, Katharine Berkoff, Lilly King, and Ryan Murphy all had solid morning swims in their events as well. However, there were two swims that really stuck out, and not in a good way.

First up, Hunter Armstrong very nearly missed advancing to the semifinal of the men’s 100 back. Armstrong came in 16th this morning, swimming a 53.94. He made it into semis by just 0.01 seconds. It’s easy to say that Ryan Murphy looked good this morning so it’s fine, but it’s not fine. The World Record holder in the 50 back, who is also the #6 100 backstroker in history, should not be swimming 2 seconds off his PB and making semifinals by the skin of his teeth. That just shouldn’t be happening. We would be looking at David Popovici a little sideways if he dove in for the men’s 100 free prelims later this week and went a high-48, which is the equivalent to Armstrong’s swim this morning. Given that, I don’t see why we shouldn’t be just as critical of Armstrong’s swim this morning.

It wasn’t just Armstrong, however. In the following event, the women’s 100 breast, defending Olympic Champion Lydia Jacoby came in 14th with a 1:06.71. That’s just another example of an oddly off swim from a star U.S. swimmer, one who is also experienced.

We could lump Katie Grimes’ 1500 this morning into that category as well, but that was more of a so-so swim in my opinion. That’s a long race, and Grimes was only a handful of seconds behind the second-place finisher this morning, so I’m less concerned about Grimes than Armstrong or Jacoby. That being said, the fact that Grimes was sitting behind a group of swimmers throughout that race and just couldn’t seem to close the gap on them wasn’t terribly encouraging.

Of course, both Armstrong and Jacoby will have a chance to bounce back tonight in semifinals, but their swims this morning just mark more in a growing line of bad swims from Team USA. Let’s not forget that Shaine Casas finished 29th in the prelims of the 50 fly yesterday. Neither of the Americans made it to the final in the men’s 400 free either.

It would be very plausible that the U.S. would also go through day 2 without winning a gold medal, if not for Kaylee McKeown’s DQ in the women’s 200 IM, which has really cleared the path for either Kate Douglass or Alex Walsh to win that race tonight.

CHINA WILL WIN THE MEN’S 4×100 MEDLEY RELAY

This one is funny because we had debated picking China to win the men’s 4×100 medley relay ahead of the start of the meet anyway. Through the first 3 sessions of the meet, China, particularly the Chinese men’s team, is looking incredible. Qin Haiyang is coming into tonight’s final of the men’s 100 breast as the clear favorite, having swum a 57.82 in the semifinals. He was the faster man in the semis yesterday by just shy of a full second. That in itself is a huge advantage for China on the medley relay.

The thing that has pushed me over the edge is Xu Jiayu‘s prelims swim in the men’s 100 back this morning. Jiayu looked strong this morning as he sped to a 52.87, marking the fastest time of the morning and the only swim under 53 seconds. With Italy’s Thomas Ceccon looking so off in prelims this morning, and Jiayu being quite a bit faster than American Ryan Murphy as well, it’s now looking very possible that China could have the fastest backstroker and breaststroker on the men’s 4×100 medley.

With it looking like China will be heating the 200m exchange with the lead in that relay, it changes the math a little bit. While the fly leg could be a little bit of a hole for China, the prospect of getting out to the lead and giving their flyer clean water is a big advantage. On top of that, there’s no Caeleb Dressel to swim fly on the U.S. relay, which has historically been a difference-making leg for the Americans.

With Pan Zhanle set to anchor China’s relay, they have a reliable low-47 split to bank on to bring them home. The more I think about it, the more sure I am that China is going to win that relay on the final day of the meet.