How Did We Do? Reviewing SwimSwam’s 2023 World Championship Predictions

• July 23 to 30, 2023
• Fukuoka, Japan
• Marine Messe Fukuoka
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• Entry Book
• Live Results (Omega)

With the 2023 World Championships wrapping up just over a week ago, it’s time to take a look back and see how SwimSwam’s pre-meet predictions stacked up against what actually transpired in Fukuoka.

• See the full 2023 World Championships Preview Index here.

PREDICTING THE MEDALISTS

Due to SwimSwam’s somewhat pedestrian 158th-place finish in the Pick ’em Contest, it’s clear everything didn’t go swimmingly regarding our picks performing as expected.

We still predicted 19 of 42 gold medalist correctly for a 45.2 percent rate (the exact same as last year), which came due in part to heavy bets on Katie Ledecky, Sarah Sjostrom, Kaylee McKeown, Summer McIntosh and Leon Marchand, who we correctly predicted for two titles apiece.

On the flip side, both McKeown (200 IM) and McIntosh (400 free) were picked for gold in events they failed to reach the podium (in McKeown’s case, she was disqualified).

The men’s side proved to be extremely difficult to predict, as not only were just four gold medalists picked correctly, but there was also 12 races where none of our medalists finished where we predicted.

• As a whole, 24 of the 60 female medalists (40 percent) were picked in the correct order while 44 of the 60 predicted medalists (73.3 percent) made it onto the podium but were not necessarily in the right spot.
• For the men, just 14 of the 60 predicted medalists (23.3 percent) won the medal we picked, while 41 of the 60 predicted medalists (68.3 percent) made it onto the podium but not necessarily in the correct spot.

THE HITS

There were seven events in which we correctly predicted the podium (in the right order), with one slight caveat.

The women’s 100 back and 400 IM were picked correctly, while the other individual event that was bang on was the men’s 100 breast—there was a three-way tie for silver between Nic Fink, Arno Kamminga and Nicolo Martinenghi, but since we picked Fink for second and Kamminga for third, we’re going to call this one a hit.

We also picked four of the relays correctly, with the women’s free relays perhaps being the most obvious given Australia’s dominance and Canada’s lack of depth making US-China the clear pick for silver/bronze.

Correct Podiums

In addition to those, there were two other events where we picked the gold and silver medalists correctly, both of which were more or less slam dunks: women’s 200 back (McKeown-Smith) and the men’s 400 IM (Marchand-Foster)—though Smith certainly had a good chance coming in.

THE MISSES

• One of the major misses (and biggest surprises) of the championships came in the men’s freestyle events, particularly in the 100 and 200 free where defending champion David Popovici failed to reach the podium. We picked Popovici for gold in both events.
• Florian Wellbrock was well off form and didn’t make the final of either the men’s 800 or 1500 free after we predicted him to win the mile and earn silver in the 800.
• Of the 11 events in which our predicted gold medalist didn’t reach the podium, they were either fourth (McIntosh, Lilly King x2, Popivici’s 200 free) or fifth (Emma McKeon, Katharine Berkoff, Nicolo Martinenghi) the majority of the time, while McKeown (200 IM) and the British men’s 400 free relay were both DQed.
• Lilly King underperformed relative to our predictions, having missed the podium in both the women’s 100 and 200 breast after she was tabbed for double gold.

See our full predictions vs results breakdown below.

WOMEN’S WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTIONS

• Swimmers predicted in the correct medal position in bold.
• Swimmers correctly predicted on the podium but not in the correct medal position unbolded.
• Swimmers predicted to reach the podium who failed to do so have a strike through their name.

MEN’S WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTIONS

• Swimmers predicted in the correct medal position in bold.
• Swimmers correctly predicted on the podium but not in the correct medal position unbolded.
• Swimmers predicted to reach the podium who failed to do so have a strike through their name.

MIXED RELAY PREDICTIONS

PREDICTING THE MEDAL TABLE

Not to spark any debate, but we’re going to solely look at the medal total per country in this brief analysis.

The United States was predicted to win 45 medals, the amount they won last year, but they fell to 38, while the Australians essentially matched our prediction with 25 medals compared to 26 predicted. With 13 of those turning out to be gold, it was certainly a standout showing for the Aussies (we picked them for 10 golds).

Among the other nations, China was a big story throughout the competition after outperforming expectations, earning seven more medals than we predicted.

Due to the performances of Popovici and Wellbrock, Romania and Germany won two fewer medals than we predicted, while the biggest jump up was Tunisia, who had Ahmed Hafnaoui stunningly secure three medals, including two golds, in the men’s distance events.

Actual vs Predicted Medal Table (Total Medals Only)