SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side.
Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers which country should be favored in the men’s medley relay at the 2025 World Championships:
Question: With the U.S. looking vulnerable on back and breast, who is the team to beat in the men’s 4×100 medley relay?
RESULTS
- China – 75.6%
- Russia (Neutrals) – 10.3%
- USA – 8.7%
- Great Britain – 3.9%
- Other – 1.5%
The United States has been historically dominant in the men’s 4×100 medley relay, winning every Olympic gold medal up until last summer, while over 21 World Championships, they’ve won 15 gold medals, three silvers, and been disqualified three other times.
Outside of the DQs, the 1998 World Championships were the only time the U.S. had lost the event at an Olympic or World Championship meet prior to 2019. But in the last six years, they’ve lost three of the six major titles, falling to Great Britain at the 2019 Worlds, Italy at the 2022 Worlds, and most recently, to China at the 2024 Olympics.
Now, entering the 2025 World Championships, the Americans are looking perhaps as weak as they ever have in the medley relay, particularly on backstroke and breaststroke due to the absences of Ryan Murphy and Nic Fink, who have been among the best in their respective disciplines for an extended period of time.
In addition to Murphy and Fink sitting out of U.S. Nationals, we also learned Wednesday that Caeleb Dressel and Hunter Armstrong won’t be racing, meaning the entire U.S. medley relay from the 2024 Olympic final won’t be at the 2025 Worlds.
They should have suitable replacements on fly (Dare Rose, Thomas Heilman, Shaine Casas) and free (Jack Alexy, Chris Guiliano), but back and breast are both big question marks, making the Americans vulnerable to a finish worse than silver for the first time in its history (outside of DQs).
In our latest poll, we asked SwimSwam readers who they believe is the favorite in the men’s medley relay this summer in light of the Americans looking weaker than usual, and leading the way with more than three-quarters of votes were the reigning Olympic champions from China.
China is home to the world record holder in the 100 free, Pan Zhanle, the second-fastest man ever in the 100 breast, Qin Haiyang, and the fourth-fastest man ever in the 100 back, Xu Jiayu. If they have a weak leg, it’s the butterfly, but Chen Juner set a big personal best time of 51.03 at last week’s Chinese Nationals, nearing the National Record to shore them up on the third leg.
Behind China, the Russian (Neutral Athletes ‘B’) team ranked 2nd in the poll with just over 10% of votes, coming off winning the short course world title in world record fashion this past December.
The 2024 Short Course World Championships marked the first time we saw Russian swimmers contest a relay on the global stage since they were banned from international competition in early 2022, and they’ve got a formidable medley relay lineup that should challenge China in Singapore.
Teenager Miron Lifintsev has emerged as a star on backstroke, giving them a formidable 1-2 punch with Kliment Kolesnikov. Kirill Prigoda has maintained an elite level on breaststroke, Andrei Minakov gives them a 50-point swimmer on fly, and Egor Kornev is their fastest freestyler this year at 47.42. Kolesnikov could also slide over to the free leg, depending on the form Kornev shows in Singapore.
SwimSwam’s Sam Blacker recently dove into the medley relay numbers, and China (3:26.98) has the fastest add-up (using personal best times from the swimmers most likely to be racing), followed by Italy (3:28.70) and Russia (3:28.98).
Italy’s add-up, however, uses times from 2021 for both Federico Burdisso on fly and Alessandro Miressi on free, while there’s reason to believe Russia’s add-up undervalues them after Prigoda recently split 57.89 on the breast leg of a medley relay last month.
The United States, which has a projected add-up of 3:29.25 using Shaine Casas, Josh Matheny, Dare Rose and Jack Alexy‘s best times, earned 8.7% of the votes, while Great Britain, who will be missing Adam Peaty on breast, earned 3.7%.
Italy wasn’t included in the poll, largely due to its weakness on fly, but were likely the country in mind for the 1.5% that voted for “other.’
Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Poll, which asks: Which women’s event is the U.S. deepest in?
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Posting this as a French fan 🇫🇷
Projected Team France:
Back: Mewen / Ndoye
Breast: Marchand
Fly: Grousset / Secchi
Free: Grousset / Fente Damers — went sub-48 in the 4×100 free relay at the 2024 Olympics at age 17 ; potential pick for the worlds relay.
Sub 329 Time will tell. ;D
I like how Australia only has one weak leg (being backstroke) – and that’s all takes for it not to be considered to be competitive compared to others in this event.
I still remember when I predicted China to win men’s 400 MR in Paris, Lisa confidently said no way, USA to win men’s 400 MR just because “USA never lost men’s 400 MR at the Olympics”
To which I responded:
There’s always first time for anything, USA had never lost men’s 400 FR at the Olympics prior to 2000 and yet they were beaten by Australia in Sydney.
They already showed they’re capable of beating the US the year before at Asian Games.
USA may not win any men’s relays…
100 fly: the top 3 americans are the clear top 3 active swimmers in that event, #1 3 and 5 all time performers
100 back: ~5 americans could make an international final, however all but 2 of them are decidedly behind mckeown, masse, and o’callaghan.
i say 100 fly
depends on the definition of depth tbh — 100 fly has the most top end depth given those 3 could fill an international podium which cant be said for 100-200 back. but 100-200 back have a stronger “overall” finals field.
USA Swimming cares more about medals than finals. Moral victories are for losers.
Interesting. Your reasoning questions the definition of “depth”: is it the number of women who can medal or the number of women who can final. Personally, I prefer the latter because I’m optimistic that anyone who can final has a chance at a medal. Still, if ever there was an event where the top 4 are so far ahead of 5-8 that they have very little chance of meddling, it’s the women’s 100 back.
I don’t.
Until further notice, Kaylee McKeown is a major threat for the gold medal in the W 50 BK, W 100 BK, W 200 BK and Kylie Masse is hardly washed up.
The clear active swimmers in that event??.Canada has the silver and bronze medalists from the Olympics.Milak is pretty good too.
Which women’s event …..
Reading is fundamental.
Read the article, my dude
I also voted for 100 fly.
It’s easy to choose for me.