Just like we did last week with the women, this week we took a look at how many swimmers each NCAA team is likely to qualify for the swimming portion of the upcoming Men’s NCAA Swimming Championships.
With one week of men’s conference action to go (the women are done), and just the MAC and the Pac-12 left to go, we calculated how many swimmers from each NCAA Division I team are likely to qualify for the upcoming NCAA Championship meet.
Note: this analysis was done based on times pulled from the NCAA database on Sunday afternoon. Many Last Chance times have already been entered from this weekend, as have all of the conference meet results, but some late-in-the-day last chance swims might not be considered yet.
The 2020 Men’s NCAA Swimming & Diving Championships will be held from March 25th-28th in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Methodology
- This analysis presumes that swimmers who are currently ranked in the top 15 in the NCAA are safely qualified for the meet. It would be an unprecedented occurrence for a swimmer currently ranked in the top 15 in the NCAA heading into the final weekend of conference meets to not earn an invite.
- The analysis presumes that swimmers ranked 16-20 are “likely” invitees. These swimmers are relatively safe, but they could theoretically get bumped.
- The analysis presumes that swimmers ranked 20th-30th are “on the bubble.” Barring improvements of their times at last chance meets, their fates are dependent on how fast, or not, swimmers are at the last few remaining championship meets, as well as which swimmers ahead of them choose which events for NCAAs (like Shaine Casas, who right now has NCAA invite times in 5 different individual events, but can only swim 3 later this month).
Observations
- This analysis currently has 226 swimmers. 235 swimmers earn an invite to the NCAA Championships every season. A similar analysis at this point last season would have been exactly 235 swimmers, and last season, the cut line came mid-way through the 30th place rank. So, expect this year’s cut line to be closer to 29th place, pending what happens at the Pac-12 Championships.
- The Texas Longhorn men have at least 20 likely NCAA qualifiers, with another 4 possible ‘on the bubble’ qualifiers, for the NCAA Championships, and that’s before accounting for their divers. Last season, Texas had 18 swimmers and 4 divers qualify for the NCAA Championships. With a maximum roster size of 18, and divers counting only as one-half of a roster spot, that meant they had to cut two swimmers, Jack Collins and Johnthomas Larson, from their roster. This year, the Longhorns could be looking at a cut of 4, or even more, swimmers from their roster.
- The defending NCAA Champion men, meanwhile, have some work to do. So far, they only have 5 swimmers locked-in to an NCAA Championship qualifying position. Last year, when they won the title, Cal had 14 individual swimmers qualified for the meet, 4 of which have since graduated. But, with honors of going last, they know the times to target to lock up their spots at the NCAA Championship meet.
- The Texas A&M men, who finished 2nd at last week’s SEC Championship meet, have only 5 possible qualifiers at present. That’s as compared to 13 for the champion Florida Gators (with 9 very likely). While the A&M men have made big strides in the last few seasons, that highlights where the gap between Florida and A&M still exists: depth.
- The Arizona men have their work cut out for them at this week’s Pac-12 Championship meet. The team has one swimmer, Brooks Fail, who is a lock for an NCAA invite, and 5 more currently sitting on the bubble (more than any other team in this analysis). The Arizona women didn’t have a great Pac-12 championship meet last weekend, with only 4 top-8 finishes in individual swimming events. The good news is that, after some struggles in the morning, a lot of those women wound up dropping time in finals, which is what’s key for hitting NCAA Championship invite times.
- After not having any swimmers at last year’s NCAA Championship meet, the North Carolina men have made a small step in the right direction with one sure-fire qualifier: junior breaststroker Valdas Abaliksta.
Data
| In | Likely In | On the Bubble | Total | |
| Texas | 16 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| Michigan | 9 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| Florida | 8 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| Indiana | 7 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| Georgia | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| NC State | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| Ohio St | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| Texas A&M | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| California | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| Alabama | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| Virginia | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| Missouri | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| Louisville | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| Virginia Tech | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| Florida St | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| Notre Dame | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| Harvard | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Denver | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| LSU | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Penn St | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| South Carolina | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Southern Cali | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tennessee | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| Wisconsin | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Auburn | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Georgia Tech | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Kentucky | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Northwestern | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Stanford | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Arizona | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| Arizona St | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Pittsburgh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| West Virginia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Minnesota | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Princeton | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Purdue | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| UNC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| William & Mary | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Hawaii | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Iowa | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| U.S. Navy | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Connecticut | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| East Carolina | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Air Force (M) | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Cal Poly | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Columbia | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Duke | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| TCU | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| UNLV (M) | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
I believe that the last chance meets are inherently unfair to the teams whose conference meets fall into the second round. The later conferences have a 5th day as a ‘last chance’ opportunity. The earlier conference swimmers get to take a week to regroup from their non qualifying swims and then try again. It seems from the SWIMSWAM reporting of last chance meet NCAA results, that the cuts are being made primarily at last chance meets that are held a week after the conference meets. This really puts the kids who don’t have that extra week at a disadvantage. Either all conferences should be held at the same time, or all conference meet should be the ‘last chance’ meets. As… Read more »
Each conference gets to decide when it holds its championship meet. If it were as big an advantage as you suggest, the Pac-12 would be moving its meet up a week. But many could also argue the reverse – the Pac-12 has an inherent advantage because the national ranks are mostly settled by the start of the meet, and if a swimmer is just outside the typical cutline, they can time trial their event right there at Pac-12s, rather than trying to extend a taper for a week or two.
(For what it’s worth, as someone who spent two seasons trying to get into NCAAs through last chance meets, they’re not nearly the advantage you think they are. It’s extremely… Read more »
And Texas still has the American Short Course “Championships” this week where they usually slip in another swimmer or two….
Texas fans- calm down. You are majorly loaded. We get it.
If Texas cuts 8 qualifiers do bubble swimmers from other teams get in?
Affirmative
Not surprised when you recruit the absolute best swimmers year after year. Maybe the horns can break the losing streak this year. A threepeat would be unacceptable.
Either check your history or your phrasing. This doesn’t make sense.
Auggie Busch, sup?
Let’s wait and see what Cal has in store, something tells me they will be more than ready to defend their title.
They will need more than 9 swimmers to come anywhere near repeating
They also haven’t had their conference meet yet. They will have a lot more than 9 swimmers.
They don’t need to be 24 deep.
They will not only get those 9 swimmers they will knock Texas swimmers out
Ha! Knock who out? Wishful thinking.
They might knock out Texas 4 bubble swimmers, but they are not likely to get to go anyway. Texas would then have 20 and need to still cut. PAC 12 does not have enough talent 😉 (not already accounted for) to knock off 9 swimmers in an event and endanger the “Likely” Texas swimmers.
Not many teams with 10 or more