2022 NCAA Division I Women’s Championships: Final Score Analysis

2022 NCAA Division I Women’s Swimming and Diving Championships

They say that championships are won in the morning, and that was never more true than at this year’s NCAA Women’s Swimming and Diving Championships. Five of the top six teams in the final standings vastly improved from their projected swimming-only scores. Some achieved this via the drip method (e.g., Virginia), adding one projected B-finalist to an A final or making the B final from a seed time ranked 17th or lower. Other teams had a few big splashes (e.g., Stanford in the 200 free).

The chart below shows daily scores from swimming only, and in the “+/-” column, how many points (more, or less) those scored varied from the projections. We have added all the diving points in a separate column, as the divers were not pre-seeded prior to the start of the meet.

Over/Under Psych Sheet Projections (Swimming Only)

Final Rank Day 1 Swim +/- Day 2 Swim +/- Day 3 Swim +/- Day 4 Swim +/- Diving Final Score +/-
Virginia 74 0 136 18 176.5 19.5 165 35 551.5 72.5
Texas 58 0 53 44 98 7.5 107 32 90 406 83.5
Stanford 54 -10 69 2 141 38 123.5 2 12 399.5 32
Alabama 38 8 82 17 57 -10 111 17 288 32
NC State 44 -4 55 -9 94 -9 86 -3 279 -25
Louisville 46 36 49 2 35 19 59.5 5 7 196.5 62
Michigan 26 -14 40 -4 60 9 58.5 -4.5 184.5 -13.5
California 56 10 33 -3 47 -8 44 -3 180 -4
Ohio St 38 -18 45 -1 48 -21.5 34 -21 165 -61.5
Tennessee 34 -24 19 -58.5 54 -53 20 -26 127 -161.5
Indiana 8 -16 4 4 8 0 12 -1 84 116 -13
Kentucky 18 -14 5 5 48.5 -6.5 35 -10 9 115.5 -25.5
Florida 26 22 24 22 18 18 30 20 17 115 82
UNC 10 2 27 -12 23 14 18 12 31 109 16
Georgia 34 28 23 5 14.5 -2.5 33 -5 104.5 25.5
USC 18 6 9 -1 56 7 6 -60 13 102 -48
Wisconsin 14 2 20 7 15 -2 51 4 100 11
Northwestern 8 -6 7 -5 41 11.5 12 -6 5 73 -5.5
Arizona 2 2 5 1 45.5 52.5 3
Penn 20 0 13.5 -6.5 11 4 44.5 -2.5
Minnesota 0 -21 6 -6 0 -7 37 43 -34
Miami (FL) 41.5 41.5 0
Virginia Tech 2 -6 0 -8 13 12 22 2 37 0
Duke 13 1 0 -3 9 2 14 36 0
Missouri 24 6.5 1 -12.5 9 9 34 3
Arizona St 12 10 7 -17 2 -4 8 -12 29 -23
Rutgers 18 18 0
Arkansas 6 4 5 1 4 4 15 9
Yale 1 1 13.5 13.5 14.5 14.5
Purdue 14 14 0
South Carolina 9 9 0
LSU 8 8 0
Notre Dame 6 6 0
(tie) Wyoming 4 4 0
(tie) UCLA 4 4 4 4
FIU 3 3 3 3
(tie) San Diego St 2 2 2 2
(tie) Harvard 2 2 2 2
Texas A&M 1 -15 0 -6 1 -21

 

 

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Joe
2 years ago

Arizona swimming had their worse performance in program history. Must be hard for a Busch to be thanking a diving coach for saving his job. Yikes, 5 points from swimming! It’s time to move on.

Clark Thomas
2 years ago

Even with the “home pool advantage,” next door to Virginia, it will take TN a lot of “rebounding” to move up from 127 points to 551.5 points in 2023,

Wave 1.5 Qualifier
2 years ago

From another perspective on the Top 15, one can really see the outliers (sorry in advance if any miscalculations):

Florida +248%
Louisville +46%
Georgia +32%
Texas +26%
UNC +17%
UVA +15%
Alabama +13%
Stanford +9%
California -2%
Michigan -7%
NCState -8%
Indiana -10%
Kentucky -18%
Ohio State -27%
Tennessee -56%

cbswims
Reply to  Wave 1.5 Qualifier
2 years ago

Flo-rida. Gator snapped hard.

sam
Reply to  Wave 1.5 Qualifier
2 years ago

248 looks nice, but it still 1/5 of the points when compared to Hoos

CanSwim13
2 years ago

Tennessee … ouch

CavaDore
Reply to  CanSwim13
2 years ago

Tennessee ouch indeed. They will probably rebound next year though since they are hosting the NCAA meet in Knoxville and will have that home pool advantage.

Horninco
Reply to  CavaDore
2 years ago

Then they better not go all In for conference next year so they can save something for nationals

Ghost
Reply to  CavaDore
2 years ago

The last two times Texas men hosted NCAAs, Cal won! Hosting comes with no guarantees! You gotta leave room on your belt to tighten up from conference to NCAAs

sam
Reply to  CavaDore
2 years ago

they seem to be reboounding for next years always…. I know it is great family and great place to transfers to…..

SECswammer
Reply to  CanSwim13
2 years ago

Tennessee big ouch…again. Maybe setting a record for losing points versus seed. Even swimswam called that the lady vols repeatedly go all in for SECs…or Kredich doesn’t know how to double taper? Or both? Kind of embarrassing given they should be national contenders (dominated SECs…) and barely held on to a top10 finish…

About Anne Lepesant

Anne Lepesant

Anne Lepesant is the mother of four daughters, all of whom swam in college. With an undergraduate degree from Princeton (where she was an all-Ivy tennis player) and an MBA from INSEAD, she worked for many years in the financial industry, both in France and the U.S. Anne is currently …

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