200 Back The Day 4 Event With Biggest Shifts From Seed (2025 NCAA Scoring Analysis)

by Will Baxley 5

March 30th, 2025 ACC, College, News, SEC

The final night of men’s NCAA concluded, and the Longhorns officially climbed back to the top in a year of coaching and conference changes. Stay tuned for Andrew’s more comprehensive full-meet analysis, but for now, let’s look into how teams fared on the final night of competition.

When looking at psych sheet comparisons, team patterns closely resembled those of the first three days. For example, California, Indiana, and Georgia continued to top the biggest gains list. Cal’s +33 gain in the 200 back, comes as no surprise, seeing as Olympic finalists Mewen Tomac and Keaton Jones were seeded to not score.

Georgia’s +12 gain in the same event, on the other hand, would’ve been a little less expected coming into the meet. Ruard Van Renen posted an incredible 2.5 second lifetime best (1:39.54 to 1:37.08) to make it into the A-final after being seeded at #22. Van Renen is just one of many examples of the Bulldogs making large, perhaps unexpected strides this weekend.

The 200 back was key for some of the biggest point gainers, and it was also key for some of the biggest point losers. ACC teams NC State, Florida State, and Virginia suffered the biggest point losses of the night. Percentage-wise, the latter two are probably more noteworthy, seeing as they only scored a small fraction of their predicted points. Both the Seminoles and Cavaliers lost double-digit points after not having finalists in the 200 back despite being seeded to do so. Florida State also lost some ground in the 400 free relay, where they finished just outside of the scoring range

The University of Florida, which suffered some of the biggest losses the first three days, had somewhat of a rebound on the final night. Though they still lost points to their psych score, the magnitude wasn’t drastic at -14. The Gators even had a positive delta in the mile thanks to Gio Linscheer’s best time and 9th place finish.

Day 4 Overall

Team Night 4 Score Predicted Score Over/Under
Cal 158 126 +32
UGA 61 39 +22
Indiana 116 98 +18
Louisville 31 18 +13
Arizona 14 1 +13
Minnesota 13 2 +11
VT 45 35 +10
Alabama 23 13 +10
Tennessee 104 96 +8
Michigan 16 12 +4
USC 19 16 +3
Kentucky 24 21 +3
Yale 15 13 +2
ASU 76 75.5 +1
Wisconsin 0 0 0
Army 0 0 0
SMU 0 0 0
Delaware 0 0 0
LSU 12 13 -1
Cornell 6 7 -1
Harvard 0 1 -1
Penn 17 20 -3
Princeton 0 4 -4
Brown 11 16 -5
Georgia Tech 0 5 -5
TAMU 6 12 -6
Stanford 43 50 -7
Cal Baptist 4 12 -8
UNC 4 13 -9
OSU 8 18 -10
Auburn 0 10.5 -11
Texas 117 128.5 -12
Florida 82 96 -14
Virginia 2 18 -16
NC State 52 68.5 -17
FSU 6 27 -21

 

Mile

Team Predicted Actual Difference
Texas 39 29 -10
Florida 2 9 7
Cal 17 16 -1
Indiana 11 20 9
Tennessee 0 0 0
ASU 7 7 0
NC State 23 23 0
UGA 0 5 5
Stanford 12 1 -11
Michigan 0 0 0
FSU 0 0 0
VT 0 0 0
OSU 0 0 0
Louisville 0 0 0
Alabama 1 0 -1
TAMU 0 0 0
Auburn 4 0 -4
Yale 13 15 2
Arizona 0 0 0
Virginia 0 0 0
LSU 0 0 0
Brown 0 0 0
UNC 0 0 0
USC 0 0 0
Wisconsin 0 0 0
Kentucky 21 24 3
Penn 0 0 0
Cal Baptist 0 0 0
Army 0 0 0
Princeton 0 0 0
Cornell 0 0 0
Georgia Tech 5 0 -5
SMU 0 0 0
Minnesota 0 6 6

 

200 back

Team Predicted Actual Difference
Texas 37.5 31 -6.5
Florida 17 14 -3
Cal 28 61 33
Indiana 27 20 -7
Tennessee 0 0 0
ASU 0 0 0
NC State 9 3 -6
UGA 0 12 12
Stanford 1 3 2
Michigan 0 0 0
FSU 11 0 -11
VT 0 0 0
OSU 2 0 -2
Louisville 0 0 0
Alabama 0 5 5
TAMU 0 0 0
Auburn 3.5 0 -3.5
Yale 0 0 0
Arizona 0 0 0
Virginia 12 0 -12
LSU 0 0 0
Brown 0 0 0
UNC 0 0 0
USC 0 0 0
Wisconsin 0 0 0
Kentucky 0 0 0
Penn 0 0 0
Cal Baptist 0 0 0
Army 0 0 0
Princeton 0 0 0
Cornell 7 6 -1

 

100 free

Team Predicted Actual Difference
Texas 13 22 9
Florida 30 20 -10
Cal 16 19 3
Indiana 0 11 11
Tennessee 35 41 6
ASU 19.5 19 -0.5
NC State 8.5 0 -8.5
UGA 0 0 0
Stanford 0 0 0
Michigan 0 0 0
FSU 0 0 0
VT 0 7 7
OSU 2 0 -2
Louisville 0 0 0
Alabama 0 0 0
TAMU 7 0 -7
Auburn 0 0 0
Yale 0 0 0
Arizona 1 0 -1
Virginia 0 0 0
LSU 11 12 1
Brown 0 0 0
UNC 0 0 0
USC 0 0 0
Wisconsin 0 0 0
Kentucky 0 0 0
Penn 0 0 0
Cal Baptist 12 4 -8

 

200 breast

Team Predicted Actual Difference
Texas 15 10 -5
Florida 13 7 -6
Cal 17 13 -4
Indiana 34 37 3
Tennessee 0 0 0
ASU 0 0 0
NC State 0 0 0
UGA 0 0 0
Stanford 0 7 7
Michigan 0 0 0
FSU 0 0 0
VT 17 16 -1
OSU 0 0 0
Louisville 18 27 9
Alabama 0 0 0
TAMU 1 0 -1
Auburn 0 0 0
Yale 0 0 0
Arizona 0 0 0
Virginia 0 0 0
LSU 0 0 0
Brown 16 11 -5
UNC 4 4 0
USC 0 6 6
Wisconsin 0 0 0
Kentucky 0 0 0
Penn 20 17 -3

 

200 fly

Team Predicted Actual Difference
Texas 0 1 1
Florida 0 0 0
Cal 18 19 1
Indiana 0 0 0
Tennessee 21 23 2
ASU 17 16 -1
NC State 0 0 0
UGA 31 32 1
Stanford 15 18 3
Michigan 12 16 4
FSU 6 6 0
VT 0 0 0
OSU 0 0 0
Louisville 0 0 0
Alabama 0 0 0
TAMU 0 0 0
Auburn 3 0 -3
Yale 0 0 0
Arizona 0 4 4
Virginia 0 0 0
LSU 0 0 0
Brown 0 0 0
UNC 9 0 -9
USC 16 13 -3
Wisconsin 0 0 0
Kentucky 0 0 0
Penn 0 0 0
Cal Baptist 0 0 0
Army 0 0 0
Princeton 4 0 -4
Cornell 0 0 0
Georgia Tech 0 0 0
SMU 0 0 0
Minnesota 2 7 5
Delaware 0 0 0
Harvard 1 0 -1

 

400 free relay

Team Predicted Actual Difference
Texas 24 24 0
Florida 34 32 -2
Cal 30 30 0
Indiana 26 28 2
Tennessee 40 40 0
ASU 32 34 2
NC State 28 26 -2
UGA 8 12 4
Stanford 22 14 -8
Michigan 0 0 0
FSU 10 0 -10
VT 18 22 4
OSU 14 8 -6
Louisville 0 4 4
Alabama 12 18 6
TAMU 4 6 2
Auburn 0 0 0
Yale 0 0 0
Arizona 0 10 10
Virginia 6 2 -4
LSU 2 0 -2

 

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CanSwim13
1 day ago

Excited to see Drew Hitchcock next year, especially getting a couple years with Luca

I miss the ISL (go dawgs)
1 day ago

So proud of the Dawgs, they haven’t had an NCAAs where they over performed like this in a while. Neil Versfeld is proving to be the right guy post-Bauerle.

snailSpace
Reply to  I miss the ISL (go dawgs)
1 day ago

They only had 4 individual scorers too! That backstroker guy whose name escapes me at the moment really overperformed.

ugaalum
Reply to  I miss the ISL (go dawgs)
1 day ago

Confused on how your a UGA fan but dont know they got 4th 4 years ago.

Bevo
1 day ago

Georgia men had a terrific meet. Congrats