The Trials That Would Have Been: Manuel, Dressel Chasing Barriers On Day 8

It’s a bittersweet week. While the world, and by extension the sport of swimming, is starting to emerge from weeks of pandemic-related shutdown, we also face the absence of the season that would-have-been. With U.S. Olympic Trials originally scheduled for this week, we’re taking a day-by-day trip into the hypothetical, analyzing the events that would have happened each day, along with our predictions of how the Olympic roster would have formed, had the season not been halted in the pandemic.

These won’t be full-length previews, and won’t be exhaustive in naming every top contender for the U.S. Olympic team. Our picks will be what we expected to happen in June of 2020, had the season not been shut down at all amid the pandemic. Our 2021 predictions will almost certainly be different when we get closer to the Trials themselves. Feel free to add your own predictions – for both the 2020 Trials and the rescheduled Trials in 2021 – in the comments.

Men’s 50 free final

One more win for Caeleb Dresselwho hits 21-low for his best swim ever outside of a World Championships meet. That’s just a hair off the U.S. Open record, held by Cesar Cielo at 21.14.

Michael Andrew finishes second to add another event to his Olympic lineup. True to form, Andrew’s Olympic events are an unorthodox combo requiring exactly the amount of unusual versatility that’s always been Andrew’s calling card: he makes the team in the 200 IM and 50 free.

Women’s 50 free final

Simone Manuel is perfectly consistent, hitting between 24.1 and 24.3 in all three rounds. Behind her, it’s Abbey Weitzeilwho hadn’t hit a personal-best in the 50-yard or 50-meter free since 2016, but broke through this college season for the first 20-point swim in history for the 50-yard free. She has a similar breakthrough in meters, going 24.2.

Men’s 1500 free final

Bobby Finke has gotten stronger and stronger as the meet has gone on, and he caps off the week with a 14:44 win in the 1500 free. That’s a U.S. Open record, and getting to within striking distance of Connor Jaeger’s American record of 14:39.

It’s a young crew manning the longest men’s race of the Olympic program. 20-year-old Michael Brinegar breaks 15 minutes for the first time in his career, an Olympic gap year paying off to the tune of Brinegar’s first-ever Olympic berth.

 

Other events today:

  • None

Olympic Team As Of Tonight:

Women:

  1. Melanie Margalis (400 IM, 200 IM)
  2. Kelsi Dahlia (100 FL)
  3. Katie Ledecky (400 FR, 200 FR, 1500 FR, 800 FR, 4×200 FRR)
  4. Regan Smith (100 BK, 200 FL, 200 BK)
  5. Lilly King (100 BR)
  6. Simone Manuel (200 FR 100 FR, 50 FR, 4×200 FRR, 4×100 FRR)
  7. Katie McLaughlin (4×200 FRR)
  8. Paige Madden (4×200 FRR)
  9. Hali Flickinger (200 FL)
  10. Mallory Comerford (100 FR, 4×100 FRR)
  11. Abbey Weitzeil (50 FR, 4×100 FRR)
  12. Gretchen Walsh (4×100 FRR)
  13. Brooke Forde (400 IM)
  14. Torri Huske (100 FL)
  15. Leah Smith (400 FR, 800 FR 4×200 FRR)
  16. Kathleen Baker (100 BK, 200 BK)
  17. Annie Lazor (100 BR, 200 BR)
  18. Alex Walsh (200 IM)
  19. Erica Sullivan (1500 FR)
  20. Bethany Galat (200 BR)
  21. Erika Brown (4×100 FRR)
  22. Gabby DeLoof (4×200 FRR)
  23. Margo Geer (4×100 FRR)

Men:

  1. Chase Kalisz (400 IM, 200 IM)
  2. Zane Grothe (400 FR, 800 FR)
  3. Andrew Wilson (100 BR, 200 BR)
  4. Blake Pieroni (200 FR, 4×200 FRR, 4×100 FRR)
  5. Andrew Seliskar (200 FR, 4×200 FRR)
  6. Zach Apple (4×200 FRR, 4×100 FRR)
  7. Townley Haas (4×200 FRR)
  8. Ryan Murphy (100 BK, 200 BK)
  9. Luca Urlando (200 FL)
  10. Caeleb Dressel (100 FR 100 FL, 50 FR, 4×100 FRR, 4×200 FRR)
  11. Ryan Held (100 FR, 4×100 FRR)
  12. Jay Litherland (400 IM)
  13. Kieran Smith (400 FR, 4×200 FRR)
  14. Cody Miller (100 BR)
  15. Matt Grevers (100 BK)
  16. Nicolas Albiero (200 FL)
  17. Bobby Finke (800 FR, 1500 FR)
  18. Will Licon (200 BR)
  19. Shaine Casas (200 BK)
  20. Michael Andrew (200 IM, 50 FR)
  21. Maxime Rooney (100 FL)
  22. Michael Brinegar (1500 FR)
  23. Nathan Adrian (4×100 FRR)
  24. Dean Farris (4×100 FRR)

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swimfan210_
3 years ago

Remember when you were wondering about the top 10 swimswam comments ever? I gotta say they probably all come from 2020 olympic (fantasy?) trials at this point.

Captain Ahab
3 years ago

You guys gave Simone Manuel too much respect in the “what if Olympic trials.”

Roch
Reply to  Captain Ahab
3 years ago

She’s only one of the fastest and most consistent swimmers on the planet, but sure, predicting that she wins her two best events is “too much respect”. Get outta here with that trash.

Captain Ahab
Reply to  Roch
3 years ago

Moderators, is it possible to revisit this post next year to prove Roch wrong?

DEAN IS GOD
Reply to  Captain Ahab
3 years ago

she keeps beating everybody in the world though?

Dudeman
Reply to  Captain Ahab
3 years ago

She’s literally the world champ in the 50 and 100 free and is by far the fastest american in both events. How little respect do you think she deserves?

swimapologist
Reply to  Dudeman
3 years ago

Anybody who’s been on these boards long enough knows that “Captain Ahab” is a very conservative individual. But not like, the neo-conservative. Like old school 1950s conservative, if you catch my drift.

What’s weirdest is that he thinks Michael Andrew, who I do believe is due for a good meet, but whose biggest accomplishment is a 100 IM SCM World Championship, deserved more respect, and Simone Manuel, who has won 2-straight long course World Championships and the Olympic title, gets “too much” respect.

Captain Ahab
Reply to  swimapologist
3 years ago

You said I was “old school 1950s conservative.” I find it odd that so many people compartmentalize other people and it’s unnecessary Swimapologist. It really is. It seems kind of like a controlling thing to do, when life is not so simple, neat, and tidy. It is unfortunate that so frequently that we our are own limitations to success and a well lived life. Prior to the shut down Michael Andrew was trending up.

swimapologist
Reply to  Captain Ahab
3 years ago

Ok, and what was Simone Manuel doing before the shutdown in your opinion? Trending down?

Let’s call a spade a spade: you like MA because he’s super Christian. You dislike Simone, if not explicitly because she’s black, then at least because she’s taken up the banner of the BLM movement and the Colin Kaepernick movement via her partnership with Nike.

I said it. Tell me I’m wrong and I’ll leave you alone.

He Said What?
Reply to  Captain Ahab
3 years ago

I’m confused by the “too much respect” line. Do you accuse the fans or SS staff for giving “too much respect” to Dressel or Ledecky? Let’s see…..four Olympic medals from Rio……World champion in 2017 and 2019…..consistently performs under the highest levels of pressure…..
Someone with those credentials DESERVES the respect given to her by the media, fans and SS staff. So how about telling us what your true motive was for that statement. Or do we need to guess?

Hambo
3 years ago

When did Abbey go a 24.2 LC?

Smith-King-Dahlia-Manuel
Reply to  Hambo
3 years ago
swimfan210_
3 years ago

We had so much fun here, I’m honestly going to miss these fantasy Trials

He Said What?
Reply to  swimfan210_
3 years ago

Sigh…..yeah, we really did, didn’t we?

swimfan210_
3 years ago

Before the last day, FINA president Rowdy Gaines makes a surprise announcement. “Polyurethane suits are allowed, effective for one week!” Soon, every swimmer scrambles to obtain a supersuit, but unfortunately not every swimmer gets one. However, out of the swimmers who got supersuits, nobody knows how to put on a supersuit, so mentors, medalists from the 2009 world championships, rush over to help the swimmers put on their supersuits. By the time the swimmers have their supersuits on, the finals, swum by only textile-suit-wearing swimmers, are over. Everyone is very mad at Rowdy.
Fish are added to the empty lanes. They are wearing suits, caps and goggles. At the beep, the fish leap off the block. The fish make… Read more »

DSswim
3 years ago

MA either gonna be on the whole meet and crush the 2IM 100 breast and 50 free or be off and not make a single event

wokebanana
Reply to  DSswim
3 years ago

…Or just make 1 or 2 events like most people have been predicting.

DSswim
Reply to  wokebanana
3 years ago

Idk maybe but it seems like he’s either on form or not. For ex. 2018 summer nationals and then pan pacs and sc worlds where he did not perform as well.

Floater
Reply to  DSswim
3 years ago

I thought MA had a great ‘18 Nationals. 4 National Championships?

DSswim
Reply to  Floater
3 years ago

Yea he did that’s the point he was on form during that meet but didn’t perform as well internationally that year

Smith-King-Dahlia-Manuel
3 years ago

Fearless prediction:

Regan Smith will break three U.S. Open Records at the 2021 U.S. Olympic Team Trials:

Women’s 100 meter backstroke (00:58.00)
Women’s 200 meter backstroke (02:05.68)
Women’s 200 meter butterfly (02:05.87)

Smith-King-Dahlia-Manuel
3 years ago

There is not enough youth coming thru the women’s freestyle ranks. Gretchen Walsh (DOB 29 Jan 1983) is currently the only teenager with a legitimate shot at the U.S. Olympic Team next year in the women’s 100 meter freestyle.

Samesame
Reply to  Smith-King-Dahlia-Manuel
3 years ago

2003?

Smith-King-Dahlia-Manuel
Reply to  Samesame
3 years ago

Oops!

About Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson swam for nearly twenty years. Then, Jared Anderson stopped swimming and started writing about swimming. He's not sick of swimming yet. Swimming might be sick of him, though. Jared was a YMCA and high school swimmer in northern Minnesota, and spent his college years swimming breaststroke and occasionally pretending …

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