Swimulator Conference Projections: ACC

by Andrew Mering 8

January 10th, 2018 ACC, College, News

With more than half the season and all the mid season rest meets complete, it’s time to start looking ahead to conference meets. First up, the ACC.

To project the meets, I’ve used SwimSwam’s Swimulator (available on the front page). This tool creates scores out a meet using top times so far this season (it can also do average times), while respecting plausible event combinations and trying to maximize each team’s points. It does not include diving. To get an idea of how we can expect these projected scores to change at the real meet, I compared last year’s projection as of today’s date to the real conference score at last year’s championship meet.

ACC Men

Defending champions NC State lead the men with 1294  projected points. Last year they gained 110.5 points vs their projected points as of January 10th. Their closest rivals all dropped points at conference last year. The closest to NC State, Louisville 287 points back, dropped 24 points vs their mid season projection last year. Last year’s 3rd place team, Notre Dame ranked 5th, was also 5th at this point last year. They jumped by gaining 189.5 points vs projection while Virgnia and Florida St each dropped over 250. Notre Dame sits closer to both those teams this year than they did last year at this point.

The top projected men’s individual scorers mostly belong to NC State. Andreas Vazaios and Anton Ipsen lead with perfect 96s. Next is Ryan Held with 92 and Justin Ress with 91. The top non NC State swimmer is Carlos Caverie of Louisville with 91.

2018 Projection 2017 Real Conf Score 2017 Real Conf minus Diving 2017 Projection as of 1/10/17 Diff Projection vs Real
NC State 1294 1297.5 1263.5 1153 110.5
Louisville 1007 1134 1091 1115 -24
Virginia 880 709.5 667.5 1026 -358.5
Florida St 879 730 577 845 -268
Notre Dame 794 923.5 834.5 645 189.5
Georgia Tech 680 576 522 628 -106
Virginia Tech 423 883.5 689.5 465 224.5
Pittsburgh 422 513 406 229 177
Duke 400 607 494 535 -41
UNC 352 700 564 487 77
Boston College 175 167 167 178 -11
Miami (Dive Only) 0 108 0 0 0

ACC Women

Louisville leads the women’s rankings with 1284 points. Their closest rival, Virginia with 1034, scored 145.5 fewer swimming points than their projection at this time last year at the 2017 conference meet. Louisville scored nearly exactly their projected score as of 1/10/17 dropping only 3 points at 2017 ACC’s. Last year’s champ, NC State beat their January projection by 141.5 points to win; however, their projected score was 177 points higher at this point last year. A much larger swing will be required to win this year as Louisville is sitting on an over 450 point edge over NC State right now, and last year at this time Louisville trailed NC State by 30. The margin is a bit wider between NC State and Virginia this year. Virginia is currently 217 points clear of NC State. Last year at this point they were 141 points ahead.

The top projected women’s individual scorers are more evenly distributed than the men. Mallory Comerford of Louisville leads the way with perfect 96 followed by Jen Marrkand of Virginia with 92, Caroline Baldwin of UNC with 88, Hannah Moore of NC State with 84, Mariia Astashkina of Louisville with 84, and  Lina Rathsack of Pitt with 83.

2018 Projection 2017 Real Conf Score 2017 Real Conf minus Diving 2017 Projection as of 1/10/17 Diff Projection vs Real
Louisville 1284 1027 961 964 -3
Virginia 1034 1100.5 989.5 1135 -145.5
NC State 817 1183.5 1135.5 994 141.5
UNC 725 980 865 834 31
Notre Dame 632 654.5 648.5 503 145.5
Virginia Tech 607 739 657 520 137
Duke 594 725.5 572.5 681 -108.5
Florida St 536 625.5 431.5 654 -222.5
Georgia Tech 442 391 386 349 37
Pittsburgh 421 428 371 403 -32
Miami (FL) 214 361.5 254.5 235 19.5
Boston College 150 152 152 154 -2
Clemson (Dive Only) 0 144 0  0 0

If you want to look at the event by event projections or more detailed swimmer points projections, follow the links to the full Swimulator projections.  Articles on other D1 conferences are forthcoming. In the meantime, if you want to know the projections for other conferences  feel free to run your own projection.

8
Leave a Reply

4 Comment threads
4 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
7 Comment authors
newest oldest most voted
Crusty

Still having a hard time believing that the Marshall coach didn’t grant Rowe a release for NC state women. I won’t be pointing my swimmers in that direction anytime soon. No reason to not grant a release.

Swimmer

NC State should not taper at all for this meet. March is where the focus should be.

BSD

They may have to, many of their swimmers didn’t swim fast enough at Invite to garauntee a spot at NCAAs

ACC fan

UNC Men 10th in the conference again?!!! Such a waste.

Improving

DeSelmed…

Don't want to miss anything?

Subscribe to our newsletter and receive our latest updates!