# Tokyo Olympics 2020: Predictions for swim events by Olympic Coach Joshua Neuloh

Following the successful Swimnex™ table 2016 which predicted the 200m freestyle race by Katie Ledecky with a difference of 1/100 of a second or forecast the medals in the 100m backstroke women by an average error of just 0.1%, prognostications have now been published for the Tokyo Olympics 2020. The Olympic Coach Joshua Neuloh and a team of experts publish their predictions for the upcoming Olympic Games every four years on SwimSwam. These calculations are based on statistics and personal knowledge established in the work with World Record Holder and Olympic medalists.

By combining cutting-edge science with practical knowledge from the pool deck, the Swimnex™ table answers the question, which will be on everyone´s mind for the next four years. What makes it into the semi final, final, win a medal or leave everyone behind at the Tokyo Olympics?

The Swimnex™ table shows the required estimated minimum time to reach the respective stage at the 2020 Olympics, including individual races and relays. This version of the Swimnex™ table is only going to be published every four years in advance and takes past results and other covariates (technical aids etc.) into account. There will be no 100% accuracy, it is still an estimation. Overall, it determines the progress of swimming performances within a standard range of probability. The Swimnex™ table is provided to coaches and their swimmers, national head coaches and everyone else, who wants to know the first event at the Tokyo Olympics 2020 marked with “World Record”.

MALE   FEMALE
Semi Finalist Finalist Medalist Champion Freestyle Champion Medalist Finalist Semi Finalist
22.01 21.61 21.46 21.30 50m 23.81 23.97 24.38 24.56
48.33 48.12 47.71 47.41 100m 52.15 52.47 53.12 53.85
1:46.52 1:45.57 1:44.63 1:44.11 200m 1:52.71WR 1:53.52 1:55.42 1:56.69
- 3:43.53 3:42.24 3:40.22 400m 3:59.74 4:01.40 4:02.38 -
- 7:46.18 7:37.43 7:36.02 800m 8:08.98 8:14.45 8:21.84 -
- 14:51.37 14:39.72 14:31.30 1500m 15:37.40 15:42.24 15:59.40 -
Backstroke
53.63 52.81 52.12 51.81WR 100m 57.98WR 58.39 59.03 59.98
1:56.71 1:55.55 1:53.71 1:53.09 200m 2:05.56 2:06.62 2:08.18 2:09.88
Breaststroke
59.59 59.20 58.47 57.59 100m 1:04.98 1:05.81 1:06.56 1:06.90
2:10.28 2:07.54 2:06.87WR 2:06.23WR 200m 2:19.67 2:21.52 2:22.39 2:25.36
Butterfly
51.86 51.63 50.71 50.26 100m 55.68 56.13 57.22 57.83
1:56.28 1:55.20 1:52.13 1:51.89 200m 2:03.95 2:04.83 2:06.64 2:08.18
Individual Medley
1:59.29 1:58.06 1:55.84 1:55.14 200m 2:06.95 2:08.41 2:09.60 2:12.35
- 4:11.38 4:06.93 4:03.79WR 400m 4:26.77 4:31.12 4:35.41 -
Freestyle Relay
- 3:13.44 3:10.44 3:09.01 4 x 100m 3:30.64WR 3:31.78 3:35.40 -
- 7:07.21 7:02.24 6:58.84 4 x 200m 7:41.58WR 7:44.15 7:51.52 -
Medley Relay
- 3:31.81 3:28.93 3:27.01WR 4 x 100m 3:51.97 3:54.44 3:57.78 -
Mixed Medley Relay
- 3:46.80 3:41.83 3:40.31 4 x 100m 3:40.31 3:41.83 3:46.80 -

*WR New World Record (August 2017), Version 06/2017