Stanford Women vs Everyone Else Combined: Actually Kind of Close

by Andrew Mering 20

February 13th, 2018 College, News, Pac-12

SwimSwam’s editor Braden Keith brought me the following hypothetical: what would happen in a dual meet of the Stanford women vs every other team in the NCAA combined into one team. The answer is: Stanford would lose. The surprising part, is that they wouldn’t get crushed.

I scored out a dual meet using collegiate best times, swimming only, no relays, 3 individual events per swimmer (2 swimmers had to have events cut because they had 4 times fast enough to be in this super meet, Katie Ledecky, and Louise Hansson of USC). The score came to Not Stanford 134.5 Stanford 112.5. Stanford has an astonishing 8 swimmers that score more than the default minimum points. That is, there are no more than 2 Not Stanford swimmers with times better than their best time. Simone Manuel, Katie Ledecky, Ella Eastin, Janet Hu, Katie Drabot, Ally Howe, Brooke Forde, and Allie Szekely all pull this off in at least one event.

And yes, Simone Manuel is coming off an injury, so perhaps she can’t go quite those times right now (or perhaps she can, we’ll see), but that’s not the point. The point is just how ridiculous a pool of talent Stanford has accumulated. If we try the same experiment with men’s dynasty Texas, they get double up 168-79. Stanford is an elite breaststroker from winning.

Here are the results with some methodology notes below.

Results

Event Name Time School Meet Points
50 Freestyle Manuel, Simone 21.17 Stanford 2017 NCAA DI Womens 9
Li, Liz 21.29 Ohio St 2017 NCAA DI Womens 4
Weitzeil, Abbey 21.4 California 2017 WOMENS PAC-12 SWIMMING CH 3
Baldwin, Caroline 21.48 UNC 2017 Tennessee Invitational 2
Engel, Lindsey 22.57 Stanford 2015 NCAA D1 Women’s 1
100 Freestyle Manuel, Simone 45.56 Stanford 2017 NCAA DI Womens 9
Comerford, Mallory 46.35 Louisville 2017 NCAA DI Womens 4
Weitzeil, Abbey 46.95 California UGA Fall Invitational 2017 3
Hansson, Louise 47.03 Southern Cali 2017 WOMENS PAC-12 SWIMMING CH 2
Pitzer, Lauren 48.6 Stanford Art Adamson Invitational Worki 1
200 Freestyle Comerford, Mallory 1:40.36 Louisville 2017 NCAA DI Womens 6.5
Ledecky, Katie 1:40.36 Stanford 2017 NCAA DI Womens 6.5
Manuel, Simone 1:40.37 Stanford 2017 WOMENS PAC-12 SWIMMING CH 3
Haughey, Siobhan Bernadette 1:41.21 Michigan 2017 NCAA DI Womens 2
Hansson, Louise 1:42.10 Southern Cali 2017 WOMENS PAC-12 SWIMMING CH 1
500 Freestyle Ledecky, Katie 4:24.06 Stanford 2017 NCAA DI Womens 9
Ryan, G 4:34.28 Michigan UGA Fall Invitational 2016 4
Bi, Rose 4:34.63 Michigan UGA Fall Invitational 2016 3
Evans, Joanna 4:35.05 Texas Texas Hall of Fame Swimming In 2
Drabot, Katie 4:35.69 Stanford 2017 WOMENS PAC-12 SWIMMING CH 1
1650 Freestyle Ledecky, Katie 15:03.31 Stanford Art Adamson Invitational Worki 9
Ryan, G 15:44.93 Michigan 2017 Womens B1G Championships 4
Bi, Rose 15:45.26 Michigan 2016 NCAA DI Womens 3
Moore, Hannah 15:47.20 NC State 2016 NCAA DI Womens 2
Byrnes, Megan 15:47.62 Stanford 2017 WOMENS PAC-12 SWIMMING CH 1
100 Butterfly Brown, Erika 50.33 Tennessee 2017 Tennessee Invitational 9
Hu, Janet 50.38 Stanford 2017 WOMENS PAC-12 SWIMMING CH 4
Thomas, Noemie 50.44 California 2017 WOMENS PAC-12 SWIMMING CH 3
Gastaldello, Beryl 50.87 Texas A&M 2015 SEC Swimming & Diving Cha 2
Engel, Lindsey 51.77 Stanford 2017 WOMENS PAC-12 SWIMMING CH 1
200 Butterfly Eastin, Ella 1:51.04 Stanford 2016 NCAA DI Womens 9
Drabot, Katie 1:51.74 Stanford Art Adamson Invitational Worki 4
McLaughlin, Katie 1:52.37 California 2017 NCAA DI Womens 3
Hansson, Louise 1:52.66 Southern Cali Texas Hall of Fame Swimming In 2
Wright, Maddie 1:52.67 Southern Cali 2017 WOMENS PAC-12 SWIMMING CH 1
100 Breastroke King, Lilly 56.3 Indiana 2017 Womens B1G Championships 9
Kozelsky, Lindsey 58.03 Minnesota 2017 NCAA DI Womens 4
Tucker, Miranda 58.1 Indiana/Michigan 2016 NCAA DI Womens 3
Williams, Kim 1:00.05 Stanford 2017 WOMENS PAC-12 SWIMMING CH 2
Zhao, Grace 1:00.72 Stanford USC vs Stanford (Women) 1
200 Breastroke King, Lilly 2:03.18 Indiana 2017 NCAA DI Womens 9
Pickrem, Sydney 2:05.23 Texas A&M 2017 NCAA DI Womens 4
Scott, Riley 2:06.20 Southern Cali 2017 WOMENS PAC-12 SWIMMING CH 3
Williams, Kim 2:08.84 Stanford 2017 NCAA DI Womens 2
Forde, Brooke 2:09.50 Stanford Art Adamson Invitational Worki 1
100 Backstroke Howe, Ally 49.69 Stanford 2017 WOMENS PAC-12 SWIMMING CH 9
Baker, Kathleen 49.8 California 2017 NCAA DI Womens 4
Hu, Janet 50.29 Stanford 2017 WOMENS PAC-12 SWIMMING CH 3
Bilquist, Amy 50.5 California 2016 WOMENS PAC-12 SWIMMING CH 2
Stevens, Hannah 50.57 Missouri 2017 NCAA DI Womens 1
200 Backstroke Baker, Kathleen 1:48.33 California 2017 WOMENS PAC-12 SWIMMING CH 9
Hu, Janet 1:49.36 Stanford 2017 WOMENS PAC-12 SWIMMING CH 4
Seidt, Asia 1:49.63 Kentucky 2017 NCAA DI Womens 3
Bilquist, Amy 1:49.90 California 2016 WOMENS PAC-12 SWIMMING CH 2
Howe, Ally 1:51.16 Stanford 2017 WOMENS PAC-12 SWIMMING CH 1
200 IM Eastin, Ella 1:51.65 Stanford 2016 NCAA DI Womens 9
Baker, Kathleen 1:51.69 California 2017 NCAA DI Womens 4
Pickrem, Sydney 1:53.30 Texas A&M 2017 NCAA DI Womens 3
Small, Meghan 1:53.31 Tennessee 2017 SEC Swimming & Diving Cha 2
Howe, Ally 1:54.82 Stanford 2017 NCAA DI Womens 1
400 IM Eastin, Ella 3:57.57 Stanford 2017 NCAA DI Womens 9
Pickrem, Sydney 3:59.36 Texas A&M 2017 NCAA DI Womens 4
Galat, Bethany 4:01.06 Texas A&M 2017 NCAA DI Womens 3
Forde, Brooke 4:02.02 Stanford 2017 College Challange 2
Szekely, Allie 4:02.34 Stanford 2017 WOMENS PAC-12 SWIMMING CH 1
Andison, Bailey 4:03.09 Denver 2017 NCAA DI Womens

Notes

  • If we add in diving, this margin gets bigger. Stanford has an elite diver, but her best finish was 3rd on one board last year. Using both spring boards, diving comes to 30-8 for Not Stanford.
  • I thought about including relays, but there wasn’t an obvious best solution of how to determine relay times.  Aggregates from each team (Stanford and Not Stanford) were one possibility. In this format Stanford loses every relay by a country mile. Perhaps this is the truest solution given this premise, but it doesn’t accurately represent the type of competition that Stanford is actually facing in the real world. The individual events in this hypothetical are actually reasonable approximations of what their swimmers have to face. Another option was to use team’s best times from previous seasons, but this required the use of splits from seniors that have since graduated. The third option was to use relay times from this season. This is problematic as teams have treated their in season relays with varying degrees of seriousness (Stanford hasn’t even competed in an 800 free relay yet this season- there are no qualifying time for Pac 12’s).
  • I didn’t include any times from outside NCAA competition. This means any freshmen with really fast high school times aren’t credited here. Sometimes elite freshmen don’t miss a beat entering college (Ledecky). Sometimes there’s an adjustment period (ex. Beata Nelson). Due to that volatility, I don’t mind saving myself some research and excluding them.

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swimmer

You should do the same thing but enter the swimmer’s best in season time (not shaved or tapered) and see if the results would be the same

ex quaker

Didn’t Hellen Moffitt graduate?

Tammy Touchpad Error

Run this again after the 2019 NCAAs. If we get enough support, maybe the NCAA will decide to run the national championship in this format. I’m sure Stanford wouldn’t mind either way.

Still can’t fathom how many top 20s won’t be making travel teams/ top 4 for a dual meet heat/ NCAAs or Pac 12s

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