This morning, the NCAA released its pre-cut psych sheet for women’s NCAAs. We’ve already projected out the likely cut lines, and you can view them here.
While no cut lines have been made official, we can still score out the psych sheet pretty reliably – the cut line usually falls somewhere in the 30s, meaning the top 16 seeds should be unaffected. Our resident numbers expert Andrew Mering has already tallied up the points, showing what could be a closer NCAA meet than previously projected.
These numbers don’t include diving, which includes three events at the NCAA Championship. As always, some athletes took a full rest for the conference round, while others may have saved rest and could have more time to drop. And relays seem somewhat likely to shuffle around as teams try new athlete combinations at NCAAs compared to what they used at the conference level.
View the psych sheets themselves here
| Projected Rank | Team | Psych Sheet Swim Points | 2018 Dive Points From Underclassmen |
| 1 | Stanford | 374 | 0 |
| 2 | California | 371 | 0 |
| 3 | Michigan | 295 | 7 |
| 4 | Tennessee | 261 | 12 |
| 5 | NC State | 242 | 0 |
| 6 | Auburn | 191 | 0 |
| 7 | Indiana | 180 | 35 |
| 8 | Southern Cali | 179 | 0 |
| 9 | Texas | 161 | 51 |
| 10 | Louisville | 160 | 0 |
| 11 | Texas A&M | 152 | 0 |
| 12 | Virginia | 148 | 0 |
| 13 | Kentucky | 98 | 0 |
| 14 | Georgia | 92 | 0 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | 90 | 0 |
| 16 | Florida | 82 | 8 |
| 17 | Missouri | 70 | 0 |
| 18 | Minnesota | 68 | 47 |
| 19 | Arizona St | 55 | 14 |
| 20 | South Carolina | 39 | 0 |
| 21 | Ohio St | 38 | 16 |
| 22 | Arizona | 32 | 13 |
| 23 | Arkansas | 31 | 30 |
| 24 | Eastern Mich | 26 | 0 |
| 25 | UNC | 24 | 0 |
| 26 | Hawaii | 22 | 0 |
| 27 | Penn St | 17 | 0 |
| 28 | Akron | 14 | 0 |
| 29 | Florida St | 9 | 2 |
| 30 | Northwestern | 8 | 40 |
| 30 | Notre Dame | 8 | 0 |
| 32 | LSU | 7 | 8 |
| 33 | Yale | 6 | 0 |
| 33 | Duke | 6 | 0 |
| 35 | Rutgers | 5 | 0 |
| 36 | Alabama | 4 | 0 |
| Purdue | 0 | 16 | |
| UCLA | 0 | 23 | |
| Nebraska | 0 | 11 | |
| Wyoming | 0 | 9 |
The projections show just three points separating two-time defending champs Stanford from Pac-12 rivals Cal. Stanford, though, should get a boost from some athletes who swam off events at Pac-12s and are now under-seeded. Ella Eastin is a good example: she swam 500 free, 400 IM and 200 back at Pac-12s, but will only include one of those events in her NCAA entries. (She’s entered in the 200 IM, 400 IM and 200 fly). If Eastin wins all three like she did last year, she’ll move up 13 points from seed.
Can someone post a link to the explanation of how the divers are selected for NCAAs? Thanks.
This explains it, though the numbers have shifted a little since then:
https://swimswam.com/depth-look-2017-ncaa-division-zone-diving/
Updated per-zone numbers:
https://swimswam.com/zone-diving-locations-allocations-for-2019-ncaa-championships/
Braden posted the link but to sum it up in a “dumbed down” version… win an event at the zone meet, you make NCAAs, 2nd place makes it as well when you get down to 4th or 5th that’s when it get iffy with some zones. Some zones take more than others. 1m and 3m usually take priority over platform (ie 5th on a board usually makes it over 5th on the platform). the selection usually goes something like this: 1st 1m, 1st 3m, 1st plat, 2nd 1m, 2nd 3m…. etc until the quota is filled. I only know off the top of my head that zone A is taking 6 1m, 5 3m and 4 Plat this year. The… Read more »
And that’s even a bit outdated – because that accounts for funding. Under the new system, lots more divers go – if their schools pay their way.
Would be nice if someone scored out the meet if it were based on 1-24 scoring. (I’m not volunteering myself…lol) I’m curious to know how much it would or wouldn’t change the outcome.
Also, I think it should be 1-24 individual scoring and 1-16 relay scoring.
I am pulling for Erika DOWNTOWN Brown to have a spectacular meet. She has a cast of credible teammates this year, swam the fastest unsuited 50 in the GA dual meet and can win 5 golds at NCAAs. She is poised to go 20., 45 and 49.low in her flat races. After last years debacle at NCAAs for Tennessee with 2 DQs on relays…she and the HER-VOLS have a chip on the swim cap. She is my bet for the high point swimmer at NCAAS, 5 golds and a couple American Records! NO MERCY – Go BIG ORANGE.
This is a bit excessive. She may place high but I do not see her winning her three individuals.
Hi, and are you high? Have you ever heard of Ella Eastin? Maybe Lily King? I hear they are pretty good. And they say Hi also
*Abbey Weitzeil and Louise Hansson have entered the chat*
Haha, thank you… Weitzeil I agree with, Hansson not sure she is in their league (assume you mean the one from USC and not NCSt), but definitely 1B to their 1A.
I should probably add Ruck to the mix…. can’t believe I missed that one
I would say Weitzeil and Hansson are about even. If anything, Hansson is better because of her versatility.
I disagree just because Weitzeil has record breaking ability, and Hansson does not.
Hansson broke the NCAA record in the 100 fly last weekend. She has record breaking ability.
Really?? Dang… well I’ll just enjoy the taste of my dirty fat foot in my mouth now….
Erika will have some fierce battles in her events.
Maybe she’ll be pushed to swim faster than her already great times this year. If she wins even one national title against her stellar competition, that will be a big achievement.
Mabel Zavaros didn’t have the SEC meet that would have been expected after her stellar season. If she shows up for NCs at the best of her abilities, it goes a long way towards improving Florida’s chances at a top 10 finish.
Auburn at 6, wow! biggest thing I noted
I expect that to come back down to earth. Top 10 would be a huge upset. They clearly went “All out” at SECs, and according to a post above, they might have cheered too much and thus are so tired now…
2 cents you crack me up…..keep it up
That wasn’t my point, but ok.
Pretty sure Katie Mclaughlin will finish better than 12th in the 200 fly as well.
Yup! And Cal’s 200 medley relay will finish much higher than 5th or 6th, or whatever they are ranked with a 1:35 due to the issue with Izzy Ivey’s backstroke start.
Eastin in the 200 fly or back, Drabot or Ruck are also very strong. Interesting choice. I would expect more team points possible with Eastin in the 200 back because Hanson in the 200 fly. Good thing that Greg was a math major.
My guess is that Eastin has a better chance of beating Hansson in the 200 fly, where she is the reigning caa record holder, than she has of beating Nelson in the 200 back. I would also say that Ruck has a better shot at beating Nelson in the 2 back than Drabot has of beating Hansson in the 2 fly.
I know for a fact that three of NC STATE’S top women, who already had invitable times, we’re not fully rested or shaved at ACCs. I’m sure many of the top teams are in the same situation. Especially Texas. Should be very interesting fight for top ten.
Texas will for sure be top 5 in my opinion. I am no Texas fan, but Carol is not going to make the same mistake she made a few years ago. Her girls will show up at NCAA’s.
Laughed when I saw Texas women are projected to get 9th.
This is of course swimming points only, and Texas has a lot of diving points. That would put them in a deadlock with Indiana for 6th, based on returning diving points (I haven’t stopped to look at how freshmen divers will impact). So, past that, it’s all about jumping seeds…
i know they didn’t all have to rest at Big 12s but i’m pretty sure they didn’t add any swimmers at the meet. not sure if any of their top talent (those already in NCAAs or with potential to make it) went season bests at all…
I doubt that. They were in a fight to win the meet and would not sacrifice some “semi resting” just to do slightly better at NCs and not win ACCs. Their men seemed to with a few, but they were much heavier favorites to win the meet, and they still rested some.
PS, the term fully rested, really means they were rested just maybe not shaved… thus 80-90% of the way to being “FULLY RESTED and SHAVED”
How many times have we seen swimmers who were “not rested” for their conference meet not improve at NCAAs? More than one can count. I’m so over hearing athletes and supporters brag about not being rested for certain meets. No one cares. Perform well at the big meet. That’s what matters. If you rested and are on a second taper and perform well, great. If you didn’t rest and are on your first taper and perform well, also great.
Even if NC State women weren’t rested, their conference meet was considerably more taxing that Texas’s was. They had to swim their hearts out to bring home the title on top of cheering and supporting their teammates in every race.… Read more »
I agree with everything you said except that cheering during a meet is taxing… really?!?! So don’t cheer, or at least don’t cheer that loudly if you want to save yourself for the next meet a MONTH later. C’mon. These are the best athletes in the world really, and you don’t think they can recover from cheering on Saturday, rest Sunday, and get back to work Monday or Tuesday and not show any ill effects from cheering…from CHEERING!?! Maybe some 50 year old alum who cheered at ACC needs 2-3 days to recover before going back to work without some wheezing or an oxygen tank…. but these finely tuned athletes?!?! C’mon. New excuse for failing teams: yeah this team cheered… Read more »
It’s not just the cheering, but it’s the emotional strain of being “up” and “on” all of the time when your team is in a tight battle. At least on my college team, you were not allow to sit while teammates were swimming. You supported them. That’s significant extra time on your feet yelling and jumping up and down. I remember hearing an account from an elite level swimmer (I think it was Madison Kennedy) who said one of her mistakes at trials was attending finals every night. Watching her friends and teammates make the team was emotionally draining, in a good way, but draining nonetheless. While it was the same meet, trials is long and her 50 free was… Read more »
Super Annoying though… now you’re comparing someone’s choices at Olympic trials DURING the meet… of course that matters…. of course she should’ve been resting when her event was That same week! But we’re talking about a month later dude! Get over it. Yes the ACC is different than big 12’s… we get it… but we can go back and forth all day long with which team had what advantage.., how bout trying to make an NCAA cut whilst swimming against your teammates in front of a small crowd vs the high energy hype at the SEC and ACC meets… you get the picture. There’s pros and cons and each team does what they have to do.
I wasn’t saying that the Big 12 environment was ideal. I’m sure it was very hard to get an NCAA cut in that environment. From the up and down votes, you seem to be on of the few that agree with 2 Cents, so I’ll stand by my comments.
I wasn’t referring to your comment or opinion as really really dumb, just if someone said they cheered in January for a meet so they were too tired for their conference meet in Feb would sound really really dumb. I get what you are saying, and you are referring to the mental side of things… I get that… kind of. It can be a let down and almost every single team there will not have the same full team at the meet like they did at conference, I get that too. You do feed off the energy and get up and go just a bit faster if the teammate in the heat or event before did well. That gets the… Read more »
Ya…. I agree that was weird.
Texas has no reason to rest for big 12s, unless they hadn’t qualified yet. My guess is a lot of girls swam through it.