Scoring Out the Men’s 2014 Pre-Selection Entry Sheets: Florida and Michigan on Top Again

Late on Monday evening, the 2014 men’s pre-selection entry sheets were sent out, and while these don’t show officially where the cutoff lines will fall in individual races, it’s safe to presume that the top 16 are “locks” for NCAA Championship invites (we’ll do the math on where the number is expected to fall today).

See the pre-selection lists here.

We’ve gone ahead and scored the meet out based on where it would fall if the top 16 seeds fell exactly where they sit right now. While it’s far from a precise measurement, it does give fans a good idea of what their team needs to do, as compared to their seeds, to move up and win a title, a top 10 spot, etc.

One of the biggest limitations to this ranking is the lack of diving. That is being shored up this week, and even then seeds are fairly unreliable in diving, but we’ve denoted those teams that will be expecting a significant impact from their divers at NCAA’s with a (d).

Once again, for the second straight year, Florida and Michigan are seeded as the top two teams by points. Last year, Michigan was #1, and that carried them to an NCAA title. This year, it will be a much tighter battle. Anybody who wants to challenge those two teams is going to have to make some major moves; even Texas, with a potential of four or more scoring divers, will need their swimmers to outdo seed by several spots each in order to contend for the title.

A few rankings people might not have expected coming into the year:

  • Alabama sits 10th. They went big at SEC’s, and while there’s some skepticism about if they’ll be able to carry that taper to NCAA’s, it almost doesn’t matter in a ‘big picture’ sense. That program has turned a corner.
  • NC State comes in with the 3rd-most seeded points. Florida State has the 11th-most and a very good diving program. 2014 ACC Champion Virginia Tech is tied with in-state foes Virginia with 27 seeded points, and both hoping for diving contributions. Interesting twists in the ACC continue. NC State men this year remind you a little of the Tennessee women last year headed into NCAA’s, but without the divers.
  • Stanford is only seeded 17th and to have 43 swimming points. Led by Kristian Ipsen, they’ll cash in huge in diving and have a good chance at moving into the top 10, but that swimming depth just isn’t there like it used to be.
  • Cal, the Pac-12 Champions, are seeded only 4th going into NCAA’s. It would be a safe bet to peg them to out score their 252 seeded points, but can they make up the 140 to catch up to Michigan and Florida? Without diving it will be tough, but they’ve got more wiggle room in their relays, which can close that gap in a hurry if they’re able to leapfrog Michigan or Florida in any of them.
Team Seeded Points
1. Florida 391
2. Michigan 376
3. NC State 259
4. Cal 252
5. Auburn 234 (d)
6. Arizona 230 (d)
7. Georgia 204
8. Texas 165 (d+)
9. USC 157
10. Alabama 140
11. Florida St. 133 (d)
12. Indiana 130 (d+)
13. Tennessee 127 (d)
14. Ohio State 107 (d)
15. Louisville 102
16. Penn State 87
17. Stanford 43 (d+)
18. Wisconsin 39
19. Minnesota 37 (d)
20. Notre Dame 35
21. Texas A&M 32
22. UNLV 30
23. Virginia 27 (d)
24. Virginia Tech 27 (d)
25. Purdue 25 (d)
26. West Virginia 23
27. Brown 16
28. Utah 16 (d)
29. Northwestern 16
30. W. Kentucky 14
31. CSUB 12
32. UNC 12
33. Navy 10
34. Hawaii 9
35. Dartmouth 9
36. Yale 7
37. Penn 6
38. Wyoming 5
39. Arizona St. 5 (d)
40. Missouri 4 (d)
41. Georgia Tech 4
42. Denver 3
43. Harvard 3 (d)
44. South Carolina 2

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Wethorn
10 years ago

Here are my team predictions. I’ve been pretty accurate with these over the past 7 years. My methodology is very manual, so the only teams I evaluated are these 8, meaning that I wouldn’t be surprised if some upstarts like NC State or Louisvile move into the last 2 slots.

1. Florida, 420
2. Michigan, 384
3. Cal, 367
4. Texas, 356
5. Zona, 315
6. Auburn, 293
7. Stanford, 233
8. USC, 222

This meet among the top 4 wil be much tighter than last year. Of these teams, Texas has the most upside based on the number of bodies (16 swimmers and 4 divers), and the fact that they likely had the most guys not rested at conference.

Wethorn
10 years ago

You guys are underestimating Texas. They may not win it, but they’ll be in the mix. My full team predictions may come later tonight.

aswimfan
10 years ago

I love how this comedic thing is repeated annually.

Every year, there’s ALWAYS the same claim that in their conference meets, college A was shaved, college B was rested but not shaved, College C was rested but not tapered, etc etc

klorn8d
10 years ago

i wonder if anyone has ever entered the 500, 100 fly and 200 back at NCAAs like conger, let alone been top 8 worthy in all. Three events that are pretty much unrelated, shows how versatile he is

TheTroubleWithX
Reply to  klorn8d
10 years ago

Along a similar note, I wonder who has won the greatest number of different individual events at NCAA’s? Has anyone ever won four or five different events over the course of their NCAA career?

Dan
Reply to  TheTroubleWithX
10 years ago

Ryan Lochte got pretty close. He won the 200 IM, 400 IM, and 200 back. Was 2nd in the 100 back as a junior, then as a senior broke the NCAA record leading off a relay. He also finished 8th in the 1,650 and 9th in the 200 fly. Natalie Coughlin jumps out as someone else who could have done it, but Cal’s archives weren’t as easy to search through.

Josh
Reply to  TheTroubleWithX
10 years ago

You could swim up to 5 individual events at NCAAs back then, but over three years (1982, 1983, 1984), Florida’s Tracy Caulkins won the 100/200 fly, 100 breast, 100/200/400 IM at NCAAs. She was also part of 400 MR, 400 FR and 800 FR relays that won NCAA titles during that time.

samuel huntington
10 years ago

WAIT, I have the answers!!! Cal was shaved and tapered for conferences, Michigan was semi-tapered and shaved, Texas was neither, and Florida tapered and shaved the left half of their bodies. Therefore, Auburn will win the NCAA title. this is 100% true.

sven
Reply to  samuel huntington
10 years ago

I see nothing objectionable with this. Congrats to Auburn!

godivers
10 years ago

For sure some of Michigan’s top swimmers were not tapered at big10’s…

godivers
10 years ago

All this analysis not only excludes relays but also diving. The top 8/16’s show CAL/MI/FL clear favorites.

weirdo
10 years ago

I think Cal has the most left in the tank. Of Michigan, Cal, and UF, I am pretty sure Michigan and UF was completely shaved. Cal had a good sized group not shaved. Not really a Cal fan. I do also believe, there is a reason they have NCAA’s, so we can see who has the best teams the last weekend in March!

Reply to  weirdo
10 years ago

This is what people said last year too. And Michigan swam lights out.

And why would Florida, who arguably has the most big guns who need less rest to get into the meet, do that?

I think Florida, Cal, Michigan, Texas, and Stanford and Arizona all have a lot more in the tank.

Derek Mead
Reply to  weirdo
10 years ago

I definitely agree that Cal has the most room to move up, and knowing their recent NCAA history, they should probably be the favorites. With that said, I don’t see Michigan losing, I think they have a few people who rested differently/less than last year for conference (Ortiz, Nielson, Jaeger).

I think most of the team will swim a little bit faster, and these 3 will drop some big time in Austin. I don’t feel like Florida has what it takes to get it done, but if they can show up and win those few tight races (200 IM) to get some team momentum, watch out. I see it going

1. Michigan
2. Cal
3. Florida
4.… Read more »

About Braden Keith

Braden Keith

Braden Keith is the Editor-in-Chief and a co-founder/co-owner of SwimSwam.com. He first got his feet wet by building The Swimmers' Circle beginning in January 2010, and now comes to SwimSwam to use that experience and help build a new leader in the sport of swimming. Aside from his life on the InterWet, …

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