Scoring the 2014 Women’s NCAA Psych Sheets: Georgia’s Depth Shows Through

With the release this morning of the uncut entry lists for the NCAA Championships, we’ve gone through and scored things as they’re seeded.

A note to make sure there’s absolute clarity: these lists released late Monday by USA Swimming are not official lists of who’s been invited to NCAA’s. They are lists of which three individual events, and relays, each team is trying to send to the meet, if the cuts fall in their favor.

See these lists here.

With that being said, the top 16 seeds in each individual event are about as sure of a lock as one can get, so scoring out those top 16 is possible, even before the psych sheets are cut.

First, let’s start with a reflective look. Psych sheet scoring is not infallible. It doesn’t take into account taper patterns, diving, and disqualifications or scratches.

What it is, however, is a good starting point perspective, so that during the meet, teams and fans sort of know where things stand, how their team is improving, etc. But they are pretty good. Last year, they correctly predicted both NCAA Champions (Georgia women, Michigan men). The year before, they were close, but not right on. Last year, they had the right top 10 teams in the wrong order, with a lot of the differences (but not all) explained by diving (Tennessee’s scoring difference was largely explained by diving, for example, and they were the really big mover). Below, we’ve done a comparison of the top 10 teams from last year’s psych sheet scoring to the actual outcome, for your viewing enjoyment.

PSYCH PSYCH ACTUAL ACTUAL
1 Georgia-GA 396 Georgia 477
2 Texas A&M-GU 368 Cal 393
3 California-PC 345 Tennessee 325.5
4 Florida-FL 340 Texas A&M 323.5
5 Southern Cali-CA 279 Arizona 311
6 Tennessee-SE 266 Florida 305
7 Stanford-PC 238 USC 291
8 Arizona-AZ 216 Stanford 246
9 Minnesota-MN 192 Texas 186
10 Texas-ST 136 Minnesota 141

We’ll break the scoring down a dozen different ways in the next two weeks, but to start, here’s a full list based on just swimming psych sheet scoring. We’ve put a (D) for teams that should expect a significant positive diving impact to their score – which there’s an increasing number of top programs on the women’s side who will be impacted.

Both Cal and Georgia can expect diving points, but Georgia’s should be more with two potential scorers and potential scorers in more events, as compared to Cal who is leaning heavily on Kahley Rowell in the platform.

On paper, Georgia has just under a 130-point advantage, plus whatever advantage they get in diving. That means that the Cal women have some catching up to do – because while Georgia lacks some of the star power they had when they won the title last year, the depth that they’ve developed is absolutely unbelievable. To illustrate that, we’ve included a count of the number of seeded scoring swims (including relays) in the far right-hand column.

Psych Scored Points Number of Scoring Swims
1. Georgia 514 (D) 38
2. Cal 386 (D) 29
3. Stanford 320 (D) 20
4. Texas A&M 317 (D) 28
5. Florida 268 23
6. USC 255 (D) 22
7. Virginia 194 15
8. Tennessee 174 (D) 10
9. Arizona 164 (D) 12
10. Indiana 120 12
11. Texas 95 (D+) 11
12. Minnesota 83 (D+) 13
13. UNC 73 9
14. Louisville 63 9
15. Wisconsin 56 6
16. San Diego State 54 6
17. Notre Dame 51 5
18. Auburn 43 8
19. Penn St. 43 8
20. NC State 34 4
21. Missouri 30 (D) 5
22. Wisconsin-Milwaukee 30 3
23. Kentucky 28 4
24. Florida St. 27 7
25. Alabama 26 6
26. SMU 19 3
27. UNLV 13 2
28. Denver 11 2
29. UCLA 10 (D) 4
30. Florida Gulf Coast 9 2
31. Oregon State 9 2
32. Ohio State 8 (D) 3
33. Nevada 7 2
34. Virginia Tech 7 (D) 2
35. UCSB 6 2
36. Michigan 5 3
37. Princeton 4 2
38. LSU 4 (D) 2
39. Utah 2 (D) 3
40. Arkansas 2 2
41. Kansas 1 2

24
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Hopefully
10 years ago

I’m thinking JT was just referencing the commenter’s predictions of missy wining all the freestyle events hands down. I don’t disagree with that commenter. I think McDermott and Maclean and possibly Vreeland will give her a run in the 5, especially seeing Vreelands 53 split on the end of her 5 at SECs and the battle of the only two swimmers to go 141 in free land and franklin will be fantastic. But the general reply may have just been specific to that comment?

Caffiend
Reply to  Hopefully
10 years ago

No Dawg fan here but the numbers don’t lie. Unless they somehow self-destruct by swimming slower than their SEC times and DQ a few relays, its pretty much a foregone conclusion…

bobo gigi
10 years ago

Great job Swimminisgood.
I also try predictions.
But still early so I will perhaps make a few changes just before the meet.
These are only first ideas.
I want to know which relays Missy will swim. She can swim 4 relays so I presume the 4X100 free, 4X100 medley and 4X200 free relays are sure but between the 4X50 free and the 4X50 medley relays, I have no news.
And sorry for diving but I don’t know anything.

Day 1
4X50 free relay. Georgia
500 free. Missy Franklin. She will start like a bullet and will hold on until the end.
200 IM. Elizabeth Pelton. I always pick her in that event… Read more »

duckduckgoose
Reply to  bobo gigi
10 years ago

Agree that Missy should swim the 200 medley relay instead of the 200 free relay (Cal’s two weakest relays), but don’t see her on the breast leg. Franklin swam the 100 breast once this season at Cal Poly and went 1:06. McKeever will bring Kong in as a relay-only swimmer specifically for that relay. Cal’s best line up there would be Tran, Kong, Osman, Missy. Surprising that Pelton only swam one relay (800 free) at Pac-12s. Cal’s relays were OK at Pac-12s and think Teri will shake them up a bit at NCAAs.

bobo gigi
Reply to  duckduckgoose
10 years ago

I haven’t said she should swim one relay instead of another one. I ask the question. Which relays will she swim?
And about breaststroke, do you not think she wouldn’t still be better than Kong in 50 yards? It’s just an interesting question. Or put Celina Li. But she has the 400 IM just after. That relay is a nightmare for Cal! 🙂

duckduckgoose
Reply to  bobo gigi
10 years ago

It’s a compromise for Cal whatever they do with Missy and the 200 free/200 medley relay, 500 free is just after the 200 free relay and they’re going to have a sub-optimal breast leg with Kong/Garcia/Li on the 200 medley, so I think they try and make up by putting Missy of the free leg on the 200 medley relay. Teri makes up for the absence of Missy on the 200 free relay by adding Pelton to Bing, Osman. and Tran/Bootsma, even though Pelton will swim the 200 IM 15 minutes later. DQ obviously hurt their seed for NCAAs, but they have significant upside from their mid-season 1:28 mid time.

Jt
10 years ago

How can you not mention Shannon Vreeland? She’s an elite freestyler and will surely give Missy a run for her money. #dawgs

bobo gigi
Reply to  Braden Keith
10 years ago

It looks like some Georgian fans are big believers in the conspiracy theory about swimswam promoting much more Cal than Georgia. 😆

weirdo
10 years ago

I too hope for no DQ’s. If you asked 10 people before and during the season, the favorite to win would have been Cal. UGA lost Schmitt and Romano and they are still in the running. Great job UGA girls and coaches! It also proves one superstar (Missy) doesn’t necessarily make a team.

liquidassets
Reply to  weirdo
10 years ago

I’m rooting for Cal but I wouldn’t have been one of the 10 who picked them over Georgia even a month or two ago. When I saw them here in L.A. the weekend of the USC and UCLA meets, I was concerned, not because of the slow times, (they actually lost to USC by 60 points) but because of their lack of overall depth relative to GA, and a couple of glaring deficiencies in the mile, diving, and breaststroke. They don’t have quite as much depth in fly as I had thought they did, either.

Li, Pelton, Franklin, will be much faster at NCAA’s I think, but assuming that most of GAs swimmers, the ones already qualified, were also… Read more »

SwimminIsGood
10 years ago

Sure seems like UGA has an excellent shot of repeating. They swam lights out at SECs and even if they come down just a slight bit, Cal has a ways to go to catch up.

My thought is that Cal’s actual scoring will be higher than the projections. However, will it be enough to overtake UGA? Not convinced it will. I think Georgia won’t drop much in their individual race standings. In any case, it sure will be an exciting meet this year. Looks like a battle for 1 and 2, then a battle for the next few spots, with four teams battling it out for a higher podium finish.

Certainly a great time of the year, with… Read more »

Peterdavis
Reply to  SwimminIsGood
10 years ago

I honestly can’t see your bias. Well done. I think while Cal has left themselves by far the most room for improvement, and will be coming for UGA, who is really, clearly, being coached so well. Their depth and ascent in the sprints really speaks to that. I got my money on the Cal ladies to show up lights out and pull this one out, in what would technically be an upset.

SwimminIsGood
Reply to  Peterdavis
10 years ago

Thanks peterdavis – glad to hear that. I agree with you that Cal has the ost room for improvement. I like your predictions on the team race. Your top races to watch? Swimmers to root for?

gosharks
Reply to  SwimminIsGood
10 years ago

Great picks! I actually think that Molly Hannis will give Larson a really hard time in the 100 breast. I haven’t forgotten that she split 25.88 on the relay in December.

I think DiRado will win the 400 IM going away.

I also hope for no DQ’s!

SwimminIsGood
Reply to  gosharks
10 years ago

Hello gosharks – I see your point on both those races, without question…

I think Molly will certainly give Larson a run for her money – especially that first 50. But, I think Larson has too much second half speed for Hannis. Would love to see Molly swim a great race – she’s a Santa Rosa Neptune swimmer (as was Amanda Sims, one of my all-time favorites), and I’m a fan of “local” swimmers here in the Bay Area.

Speaking of Santa Rosa Neptunes, you named another amazing standout…Maya DiRado. She could certainly win the 400 IM and I almost chose her. I’m just going with Beisel for her fight, though Maya might have just as much. Beisel is… Read more »

Dan
Reply to  SwimminIsGood
10 years ago

Hannis can’t beat Larson. Larson out-split her in the 200 MR. So she has just as much top end speed but a better finish.

Hugo Miller
Reply to  gosharks
10 years ago

I love watching Breeja and Molly race, you couldn’t have two more different body sizes and stroke forms!! Molly is freakishly quick and Breeja is a frikin diesel! Awesome to watch!! I agree, Breeja has the upper hand, but Molly is so quick and powerful; maybe an upset brewing?

Dan
10 years ago

At what point do teams have to trim their roster? Are there any potential scorers that may not be at the meet?

duckduckgoose
10 years ago

Thanks for the number crunching, Braden. The final 2013 team scores include diving, so wouldn’t a better psych sheet/actual results comparison be without diving added into final results? Also the Ds for schools with projected diving points haven’t be added.

duckduckgoose
Reply to  Braden Keith
10 years ago

Thanks, Braden. I was looking for a quick and dirty way to quantify how many swimming points schools added thanks to taper when I noticed diving points were included in the final points total.

PAC12BACKER
10 years ago

It sure looks like Cal has significant work to do to catch Georgia. Diving a wash at best for Cal between these two teams. We’ll see what the prognosis is for the Cal men during the PAC 12 championships but appears that no psych sheet posted on the PAC 12 web yet. I’m not a big fan of that PAC 12 swimming & diving web-site!

gosharks
Reply to  PAC12BACKER
10 years ago

Pac 12 Men’s Psych Sheets:

http://results.teamunify.com/pnws2/

About Braden Keith

Braden Keith

Braden Keith is the Editor-in-Chief and a co-founder/co-owner of SwimSwam.com. He first got his feet wet by building The Swimmers' Circle beginning in January 2010, and now comes to SwimSwam to use that experience and help build a new leader in the sport of swimming. Aside from his life on the InterWet, …

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