Rising Stars: Assessing the State of 18 & Under U.S. Talent (Women’s Edition)

With much of the summer already over, USA Swimming has already sent swimmers out to a bevy of international meets and championships. We’re already under the one-year countdown to Tokyo, so we’re taking a look at the top 15 swimmers in every event to see where 18 & under swimmers are at. There has been plenty of speculation and analysis of who ranks where in terms of the 2019-2020 U.S. National Team, and the focus on the top six has had us all honed in on who feels like a lock for the Olympic Team next summer and which swimmers are jockeying in the top three or four contenders for more open events.

A look at the 18 and unders here gives us special insight into the younger Americans who have put themselves on the map this summer, and with younger swimmers often comes sharp improvement curves. A widely discussed topic this summer has been the two-year qualification process, much like in 2015, which really just speaks to the year-to-year turnover in talent and times. A 14-year-old sitting at 15th in an event this year could have something huge coming next year to sneak into the semifinals or even a final at the Olympic Trials, which is why we’re digging into this now to put our initial radar up for those fast movers.

This post focuses on women’s events. The men’s edition will be coming out soon.

We pulled data straight from USA Swimming to obtain the top fifteen swimmers in each event from the 2019 season, which goes from September 1, 2018, to August 13, 2019, when the data was culled. We had to filter out the non-American swimmers as well as anyone over the age of 18 to get this subset. There may be swimmers who were 18 at the time of their season-best, and they’ve since aged up. Some of the work was done manually, and there also may be errors in USA Swimming’s rankings that we have no control over. Please let us know if there is something we have missed.

INTERESTING STATS

• The youngest swimmer on this list is Fox Valley Park District Riptide’s Leah Hayes. The 13-year-old delivered several eye-popping results at the 2019 Speedo Junior National Championships, including a 2:13.06 in the 200 IM, which ranks #2 in the 13-14 age group historical rankings.
• Performances from juniors in the top 15 in each stroke:
  • Freestyle – 20 (50/100 – 6, 200/400 – 5, 800/1500 – 9)
  • Backstroke – 15
  • Butterfly – 10
  • Breaststroke – 7
  • IM – 5
• In the 400 IM, there is only 1 junior in the top 15. That’s Sarasota YMCA’s Emma Weyant, who is the top American overall this season. She won the national title in the event with a lifetime best 4:35.47.
• There are 8 juniors in the top 15 of the 200 back, and 7 in the 100 back, the two events with the highest concentration of juniors. We’ve been used to this kind of youthful uprising the last half decade in the backstrokes on the women’s side, with World Record-holder Regan Smith hitting her stride at #1 in both. In addition to the other older teens who we’re used to seeing pushing the envelope in the backstrokes, 14-year-old Rye Ulett has entered the chat with her #2 time in 13-14 history in the 200 back at U.S. Nationals. She’s the only 13-14 American woman to be under 2:10 ever, besides NAG record-holder Missy Franklin.
• Regan Smith and Emma Weyant are tied with four events, each, in the top 15. For Smith, it’s both back events and both fly events. For Weyant, it’s the 400/800/1500 free and the 400 IM.
• If the Olympic team was chosen right now based on regular selection procedures, Smith (100/200 back), Weyant (400 IM), and Gretchen Walsh (4×100 free relay) would make the team (with Walsh’s qualification depending on there being enough double-ups to warrant a spot for the sixth-place 100 freestyler for the relay). There are quite a few juniors in 3rd, 4th, 5th, or 6th positions right now, too.
• There is at least one junior swimmer ranked in the top eight (AKA, solid bet to make the final at OTs) in every event except for the 200 free.
• The back and fly events are the most concentrated with top-eight talent. There are four junior women in the top eight of both backstrokes, and three in both butterflies.

JUNIORS IN U.S. 2018-19 TOP 15 – BY EVENT

JUNIORS IN U.S. 2018-19 TOP 15 – BY RANK