Rio 2016 Olympic Preview: Phelps Out For Redemption In Men’s 200 Fly

Men’s 200 Fly

Like the 100 fly, the men’s 200 fly sets up to be an epic battle between three men: Michael Phelps, Chad Le Clos and Laszlo Cseh. Sure, others figure to be fast and maybe bump one of those guys out of the medals in either event, but these three will possess the majority of the focus. Not only are they the three fastest in the world over the last year, but they’re the only three who have gone under 1:54 since the 2012 Olympics, and they all have previous history with one another.

Chad Le Clos (RSA) is World Champion in men's 100m fly at 2015 FINA World Championships (courtesy of Tim Binning, theswimpictures.com)

Chad Le Clos (RSA) is World Champion in men’s 100m fly at 2015 FINA World Championships (courtesy of Tim Binning, theswimpictures.com)

Le Clos famously out-touched Phelps for gold in 2012, denying him of his record third straight Olympic gold in the event. He then had some choice words for Phelps after winning the 100m World title last year, providing a spark in the rivalry. Phelps and Cseh go way back, as Phelps has overshadowed Cseh for the last 13 years denying him gold on the big stage countless times, including three at the Beijing Olympics in 2008. Le Clos and Cseh have had a few clashes as well, trading gold and silver medal performances last year in Kazan in the fly events and Le Clos also won gold over Cseh’s silver at the 2013 Worlds in the 100 fly. In Cseh’s career he has eight silver medals from either the Olympics or World Championships, and seven of those times the gold has gone to either Phelps or Le Clos. Could he finally avenge those losses taking out both men on the biggest stage of all? He certainly has a great shot.

Laszlo-Cseh-ECH-by-Peter-Sukenik-www.petersukenik.com-2879

Laszlo Cseh was in fine form at the European Championships, clocking a world best 1:52.91 in the 200 fly (Peter Sukenik).

Cseh leads the 2016 world rankings with his time of 1:52.91 from the European Championships, well ahead of anyone else in 2016. After that swim Cseh was quoted as saying “If I arrived to Rio in this shape I would be utterly disappointed”, pretty scary considering that was the fastest time anyone has done since the suits were banned in 2009. If someone were to look at the results of the last few years having no knowledge of the swimmers involved or their previous accomplishments, logic points to Cseh to be the victor in Rio. He’s the 2015 World Champion and the fastest man in the world this year, but he’ll need some serious firepower to get by both world record holder Phelps and defending Olympic champ Le Clos.

Phelps was seemingly done with this event until he began swimming it in the lead up to US Nationals last summer, where he dropped the top time of the year in 1:52.94. He was just 1:54.84 at US Trials last month, but you can expect him to be much faster in Rio. Once Phelps put his troubles in late 2014 behind and began to put everything into training, the loss to Le Clos four years ago certainly must’ve been part of the motivation to pick the event up one last time.

After winning 2012 gold in this event Le Clos continued his international success, winning double gold at the 2013 World Championships before going on an unbelievable tear in late 2014, going undefeated on the World Cup Circuit and appearing unbeatable in the short course pool. He continued that streak right through the end of 2014, going 4-for-4 at the Short Course World Championships. With all that success it was somewhat of a surprise that he didn’t find more success at the 2015 World Championships, despite still coming away with two medals. Le Clos failed to make the final of the 50 fly and was defeated by Cseh in the 200 fly. Along with that, he was forced to eat his words after Phelps beat his gold medal winning time in the 100 fly later that same day in San Antonio. The story lines are aplenty in this race, and these guys are going to put on a show. Le Clos’ recent release of the documentary ‘Unbelievable’ only adds to the drama in the lead-up to this race, as he references how badly he wants to beat Phelps again in this race specifically many times.

Daiya Seto, Masato Sakai. 2014 Pan Pacs (courtesy of Paul Younan)

Daiya Seto, Masato Sakai. 2014 Pan Pacs (courtesy of Paul Younan)

After those three, there figures to be a bit of a gap followed by plenty of men who will battle it out for a spot in the final and then spots four through eight in the final. The Japanese combo of Daiya Seto and Masato Sakai figure to be in the thick of that race, as they put up times of 1:54.1 and 1:54.2 respectively at Japan’s Olympic Trials earlier this year. Seto has proved his consistency in this event with six swims of 1:54-something over the last two years, despite a somewhat underwhelming 6th place finish last year in Kazan. Sakai swam a pair of personal bests in Kazan to finish 4th in 1:54.24, and improved that time by three one-hundredths earlier this year. Both have proved their capability to swim multiple 1:54s, but will likely need to dip below that to contend for a medal, despite the fact they sit 2nd and 3rd in the world for 2016.

The other finalists from Kazan last year, Jan Switkowski, Viktor Bromer, Louis Croenen and Tom Shields, will be all in the fight for a spot in the final, though it won’t be easy. Bromer is the highest ranked among them this year at 7th, while Shields is 12th, 2015 bronze medalist Switkowski is 15th and Croenen is 25th. Experience will be in their corner over some of their challengers, but they’ll have to execute perfect races in the semis to ensure a spot in the final.

A few who will look to turn some heads in Rio are Tamas Kenderesi of Hungary, Li Zhuhao of China and David Morgan of Australia. Kenderesi, who didn’t even compete last year in Kazan, won bronze at the European Championships in May and has been 1:54.79 twice in the last year, ranking him 5th in the world for 2016. Li, who also didn’t compete in this event in Kazan but was a finalist in the 100 fly, threw down a junior world record of 1:55.52 last September and was just two-hundredths slower at Chinese

Tom Shields (photo: Mike Lewis)

American Tom Shields will need to be right around his personal best to ensure a spot in the final 8 in Rio (Mike Lewis).

Nationals this year. Morgan had a disappointing semi-final swim last year in Kazan to miss the final, but swam a best time of 1:55.63 to win the Aussie Trials and put himself in the hunt.

This event has three men who have separated themselves, at least on paper, followed by a logjam of men who could final or miss the semis depending on how they perform in Rio. Phelps’ competitive edge has led him to wins where it seemed impossible (2004 100 fly over Crocker, 2008/2009 100 fly over Cavic), and what he threw down last summer was truly remarkable after the year he had. He could have some magic left in him, though both him and Cseh are at a disadvantage being much older than Le Clos. That might just tip the scales in Le Clos’ favor. Behind them it’s tight, but the Japanese men have proven their consistency and the young Europeans are on the rise.

Others who will look to make their way into the conversation include Leonardo de Deus (BRA), Grant Irvine (AUS), Kaio Almeida (BRA)  and Zheng Wen Quah (SIN).

Place

Swimmer

Country

Best Time (Since 2012 Olympics)

Predicted Time in Rio

1

Chad Le Clos

RSA

 1:53.68

  1:52.5

2

Michael Phelps

USA

 1:52.94

  1:52.8

3

Laszlo Cseh

HUN

 1:52.91

  1:52.8

4

 Daiya Seto

JPN

 1:54.08

 1:53.9

5

 Masato Sakai

 JPN

 1:54.21

 1:54.1

6

 Tamas Kenderesi

HUN

 1:54.79

 1:54.4

7

Viktor Bromer

 DEN

 1:54.47

  1:54.6

8

 Tom Shields

 USA

 1:55.09

 1:54.8

Dark Horse: Joseph Schooling, the winner of two consecutive NCAA titles in this event and the current NCAA record holder, is a question mark at this point as he has pondered dropping this event in favor of the 100 free, though he is entered in both for Rio. If he opts to swim it, his marked improvement in the SCY version of the event make him a definite contender for a finals berth, not to mention he has already proved himself in the LC pool in the 100m distance winning bronze in Kazan last summer.

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Sdavis
7 years ago

Can anyone explain why 100 ‘fly victory presentation was only to silver and gold? No bronze was given.
Btw WHAT A SWIIIIM!

Admin
Reply to  Sdavis
7 years ago

Sdavis – because of the tie, the next medal isn’t given. The logic behind it – bronze is for 3rd place. The next-best finisher after Schooling and the three who tied for silver isn’t the third place finisher – he’s the 5th place finisher, so no bronze.

If there were a two way tie for gold, for example, they’d give out 2 golds and 1 bronze, no silvers. Like in the women’s 100 free on Thursday.

TSeabird
7 years ago

Well… That was interesting.

Damiansport1
7 years ago

Sorry Swimswam but thats predictions is so wrong. There is no way in the world Phelps is losing again to le Clos in 200 fly.
1. Phelps
2. Csech
3. Le Clos

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  Damiansport1
7 years ago

Phelps isn’t going down that easy.

Brownish
Reply to  Damiansport1
7 years ago

Cseh will win, near WR.

Gregory
7 years ago

BOLD

THEO
7 years ago

If Phelps wins this race, it just might be the most amazing moment of his career.

Let me explain: prior to 2011, around the time his demons were coming in hot, Phelps had never lost a close race at the Olympics or World Champs. He had either won, or lost by a large enough margin that it wasn’t really in his control from a mental edge perspective (2004 or 2009 200 freestyles). You can divide the qualities of a great swimmer into two categories: what you do from the moment the blocks go off till the moment you hit the wall, and everything else. Phelps was the best at the former by an absurd margin, but 2011/12 showed that quality… Read more »

Julio Plaintan
7 years ago

People who are doubting Phelps because of his trials swim don’t realise that he wasn’t even 50% tapered for the trials. The goal at trials was to qualify which was successfully achieved without letting people know where he was at when he is fully tapered.

I have no doubt that Phelps will come all guns blazing in Rio and unleash a 1:52 low to win the gold. This will be the most competitive race in men’s swimming in Rio and Phelps being Phelps with his firepower and winning mentality will get the gold.

At the end of the day, a champion always knows how to get it done.

Chase
7 years ago

Phelps wins 1:51.90

About James Sutherland

James Sutherland

James swam five years at Laurentian University in Sudbury, Ontario, specializing in the 200 free, back and IM. He finished up his collegiate swimming career in 2018, graduating with a bachelor's degree in economics. In 2019 he completed his graduate degree in sports journalism. Prior to going to Laurentian, James swam …

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