# Projecting the Field for the Women’s 2015 NCAA Championships (Cut Line Analysis)

Braden Keith
##### by Braden Keith 38

March 03rd, 2015

Update:Â one of our readers found an error. Stephanie Peters should have been included on the list of “39 line” swimmers. Changes have been made.

Who is patient enough to wait for USA Swimming and the NCAA to crunch the numbers and spit out the list of 281 swimming qualifiers for the 2015 NCAA Women’s Championships?

Certainly not us.

So, below, we’ve taken the pre-selection sheets and run the numbers on who is projected to make the field of swimmers for the NCAA Championships.

The basic qualifying rules are that 281 swimmers go to the meet in individual events (in addition to 41, separately selected, divers). That means that if a swimmer is in the top 10, for example, in multiple events, that opens up more spots closer to the cut line.

All “A” cut swimmers go to the meet automatically, which is almost irrelevant in Division I. Then, the committee starts lining out swimmers, line-by-line, across all of the individual events, until they break the threshold of 281 swimmers.

This year, by our math, going through 38 lines of qualifying came out to 274 swimmers, and going through 39 lines of qualifying came out to 283 swimmers. That means that everyone seeded in the top 38 of an individual event should earn an invite to NCAA’s.

Where things get complicated is on the 39th line with tie breakers. There are 8 swimmers on that line who are not otherwise invited in another event, and so those are the 8 where the focus lies.

Among those 9, the 7Â with the swims that are closest, by percentage, to the existing NCAAÂ Championship record will go to the meet. The other two will be the first alternates.

Here’s how the math came out:

 Swimmer Event Entry Time (in secs) Championship Record (in secs) Â Percent of record Peters, Stephanie 500 free 282.73 272.53 96.39% Hull, Valerie 100 free 48.88 46.82 95.79% Finke, Autumn 1650 free 977.36 927.84 94.93% Paez, Isabella 200 fly 116.92 110.98 94.92% Lincoln, Hannah 100 fly 52.79 50.01 94.73% Ibanez Lopez, Lili 200 free 105.94 100.31 94.69% Gonzalez Medina, Esther 200 breast 131.23 124.06 94.54% Nihipali, Anu 100 back 52.97 49.97 94.34% 1st Alternate Carlson, Maria 100 breast 60.74 57.23 94.22% 2nd Alternate

That means that Valerie Hull, Autumn Finke, Isabella Paez, Hannah Lincoln, Lili Ibanez, and Esther Gonzalez Medina, Â will make the field of 281. Wisconsin’s Maria Carlson and Wagner’s Anu Nihipali will sit and await a call. The past few seasons have seen a fair share of late scratches, so their hopes are not totally dashed yet.

This cut line fallsÂ exactly in the same spot as it did last year, with all but two swimmers on the 39 line qualifying.

We will stop short of certifying this at 100%, but we were right-on-the-numbers each of the last two years. In interest of transparency, here’s our work so that you can do the math yourself. Please let us know in the comments if you agree or disagree with the numbers.:

And, without further ado, here are the 281 qualifiers for the NCAA Championships, first sorted by team name and then by athlete last name:

By team name:

 Swimmer Team Miller, Genevieve Air Force Blood, Bridget Alabama Burchell, Kaylin Alabama Nonnenberg, Mia Alabama Saunders, Emma Alabama Borendame, Sara Arizona Brandon, Bonnie Arizona Oder, Tjasa Arizona Pepper, Elizabeth Arizona Schick, Taylor Arizona Schoettmer, Emma Arizona Jonsdottir, Ingibjorg Arizona St. Simonovic, Kat Arizona St. Daniels, Nikki Arkansas Mayfield, Anna Arkansas Monroe, Maddie Arkansas Tatlow, Chelsea Arkansas Fonteno, Megan Auburn Hull, Valerie Auburn Lazor, Annie Auburn Lloyd, Natasha Auburn Neidigh, Ashley Auburn Purcell, Allyx Auburn Vitarius, Jillian Auburn Aoyama, Brittany Boise St. Wicks, Sam Boise St. Levendoski, Emma Bucknell Acker, Rachael Cal Bing, Kaylin Cal Bootsma, Rachel Cal Cheng, Camille Cal Franklin, Missy Cal Garcia Urzainqui, Marina Cal Klaren, Melanie Cal Li, Celina Cal Mau, Jasmine Cal Naze, Kelly Cal Osman, Farida Cal Pelton, Elizabeth Cal Piehl, Caroline Cal Runge, Cierra Cal Thomas, Noemie Cal Vredeveld, Kristen Cal Keire, Jacqueline Cincinnati Corea, Sam Denver Roas, Johanna Denver Goldman, Leah Duke Paez, Isabella Duke Sellers, Megan East Carolina Armitage, Katie FGCU Svensson, Emma FGCU Toussaint, Kira FGCU Finke, Autumn Florida Hinds, Natalie Florida Hohmann, Georgia-Mae Florida Katz, Taylor Florida Linn, Ashlee Florida Maughan, Amelia Florida McKnight, Lindsey Florida Michalak, Theresa Florida Roy, Taylor Florida Thielmann, Jessica Florida Yambor-Maul, Alyssa Florida Bucz, Agi Florida Atlantic Gustafsdottir, Johanna Florida International Scalia, Silvia Florida International Britt, Chelsea Florida State Dressel, Kaitlyn Florida State Pochowski, Sami Florida State Cameron, Emily Georgia Flickinger, Hali Georgia Harrington, Lauren Georgia Kingsley, Megan Georgia Locus, Madeline Georgia MacLean, Brittany Georgia Mattern, Jordan Georgia McDermott, Amber Georgia Peters, Courtney Georgia Peters, Stephanie Georgia Raab, Meaghan Georgia Smoliga, Olivia Georgia Stewart, Kylie Georgia Van Landeghem, Chantal Georgia Vernon, Nicole Georgia Weaver, Courtney Georgia Zhu, Annie Georgia Zilinskas, Rachel Georgia Lee, Danielle Harvard Alkhaldi, Jasmine Hawaii Chamberlain, Marie Indiana Dalesandro, Gia Indiana Day, Allie Indiana Goss, Kennedy Indiana Lips, Haley Indiana Lisy, Sam Indiana Marchuk, Stephanie Indiana Pammett, Cynthia Indiana Pressey, Bailey Indiana Ress, Justine Indiana Snodgrass, Brooklynn Indiana Szekeres, Dorina Indiana Sougstad, Emma Iowa Stoughton, Becky Iowa Miller, Chelsie Kansas Alexander, Bridgette Kentucky Bechtel, Christina Kentucky Casey, Kendal Kentucky Galyer, Danielle Kentucky Myers, Abby Kentucky Chin, Abby Louisville Cottrell, Andee Louisville Kneppers, Andrea Louisville Kylliainen, Tanja Louisville Worrell, Kelsi Louisville Carter, Amber LSU Kopcso, Kara LSU O’Neil, Colleen LSU Oquist, Caley LSU Troskot, Leah LSU Cummings, Kelsey Michigan Deloof, Ali Michigan Goswell, Claudia Michigan Kopas, Emily Michigan Moore, Hannah Michigan Ryan, Gillian Michigan Smiddy, Clara Michigan Harding, Sam Minnesota Janzen, Kiera Minnesota Nack, Danielle Minnesota Plant, Jessica Minnesota Simenec, Tori Minnesota Smith, Kierra Minnesota Votava, Lauren Minnesota Weiland, Becca Minnesota Zeiger, Brooke Minnesota Barbiea, Dani Missouri Brady, Sharli Missouri Duncan, Abby Missouri Ross, Katharine Missouri Stevens, Hannah Missouri Bonnema, Riki NC State Muller, Rachel NC State Poli, Lauren NC State Zevnik, Alexia NC State Baerens, Teresa Nevada Li, Yawen Nevada Mann, Katie New Hampshire Bestor, Megan North Carolina Hardesty, Allyn North Carolina Lincoln, Hannah North Carolina Moffitt, Hellen North Carolina Munch, Katie North Carolina Nunn, Emma North Carolina Runyon-Hass, Hannah North Carolina Siverling, Danielle North Carolina Reaney, Emma Notre Dame Clary, Lindsey Ohio State Dzierzak, Rachael Ohio State Li, Zhesi Ohio State Schmidtke, Aliena Ohio State Vance, Ashley Ohio State Vargo, Taylor Ohio State Harrison, Sammy Oregon State Verger Gourson, Margaux Pacific Ackman, Alyson Penn State Fittin, Carolyn Penn State Francis, Casey Penn State Rodriguez, Melissa Penn State Rowe, Katie Penn State Siverling, Megan Penn State Sowinski, Katelyn Penn State Richey, Amanda Pitt Ritter, Kaleigh Pitt Davis, Alexa Purdue Fogle, Emily Purdue Marr, Francesca Purdue Meitz, Kaersten Purdue Sheets, Rhiannon Purdue Clark, Casey Rice Leberfinger, Greta Rutgers Apostalon, Anika San Diego St. Bailey, Chelsea San Diego St. Harrison, Summer San Diego St. McCormick, Morgan San Jose St. Arcila, Isabella SMU Erasmus, Marne SMU Lindborg, Nathalie SMU Nicholas, Tara-Lynn SMU Nicol, Rachel SMU Vay, Meredth South Carolina Anderson, Julia Stanford Brown, Allison Stanford Carlson, Grace Stanford Engel, Lindsey Stanford Haase, Sarah Stanford Halsted, Tara Stanford Howe, Ally Stanford Hu, Janet Stanford Manuel, Simone Stanford Neal, Lia Stanford Olsen, Katie Stanford Poppe, Heidi Stanford Bruens, Harper Tennessee Callahan, Colleen Tennessee Carner, Amanda Tennessee Demonte, Anna Tennessee Dickson, Morgan Tennessee Driscoll, Lauren Tennessee Griffith, Mary Tennessee Hannis, Molly Tennessee Johnson, Faith Tennessee Lundstrom, Heather Tennessee Tegner, Maddy Tennessee Cox, Madisyn Texas Denninghoff, Sarah Texas Jaques, Gretchen Texas Karosas, Tasija Texas Leneave, Kelsey Texas Millard, Rebecca Texas Pawlowicz, Kaitlin Texas Schneider, Mimi Texas Bosma, Sammie Texas A&M Brandt, Claire Texas A&M Bratton, Lisa Texas A&M Galat, Bethany Texas A&M Gastaldello, Beryl Texas A&M Gibson, Sarah Texas A&M Gonzalez Medina, Esther Texas A&M Henry, Sarah Texas A&M Ibanez Lopez, Lili Texas A&M Jonker, Franko Texas A&M Malone, Kristin Texas A&M McGregor, Ashley Texas A&M McMahon, Sycerika Texas A&M Neubert, Emily Texas A&M Norman, Laura Texas A&M Oliver, Meredith Texas A&M Arnold, Macey Towson Van Camp, Jenna Towson Schachter, Mia Tulane Campbell, Katy UCLA Grover, Katie UCLA Mack, Linnea UCLA Tarazona, Noelle UCLA White, Madison UCLA Wine, Allison UCLA Escobedo, Emily UMBC Chenault, Chelsea USC Colleou, Stina USC Kropp, Andrea USC Stewart, Kendyl USC Swenson, Evan USC Weiss, Hannah USC Wilk, Kasia USC Worrall, Lucy USC Gigliotti, Giuliana Utah Bartholomew, Courtney Virginia Borgersen, Hanne Virginia Casey, Shaun Virginia Cooper, Caitlin Virginia Haulsee, Alison Virginia Jones, Kaitlyn Virginia Marrkand, Jen Virginia Simon, Laura Virginia Smith, Leah Virginia Thomas, Ellen Virginia Williamson, Ellen Virginia Donnelly, Fiona Virginia Tech Gruber, Maggie Virginia Tech Nazieblo, Klaudia Virginia Tech Paluszek, Weronika Virginia Tech Stewart, Mackenzie Virginia Tech Laemmler, Nadine Western Kentucky Marquess, Susan Western Kentucky Grindall, Dana Wisconsin Holtzen, Jenny Wisconsin Martin, Ivy Wisconsin Valley, Danielle Wisconsin Van Hout, Aja Wisconsin Zimmerman, Maddy Yale

By last name:

 Swimmer Team Acker, Rachael Cal Ackman, Alyson Penn State Alexander, Bridgette Kentucky Alkhaldi, Jasmine Hawaii Anderson, Julia Stanford Aoyama, Brittany Boise St. Apostalon, Anika San Diego St. Arcila, Isabella SMU Armitage, Katie FGCU Arnold, Macey Towson Baerens, Teresa Nevada Bailey, Chelsea San Diego St. Barbiea, Dani Missouri Bartholomew, Courtney Virginia Bechtel, Christina Kentucky Bestor, Megan North Carolina Bing, Kaylin Cal Blood, Bridget Alabama Bonnema, Riki NC State Bootsma, Rachel Cal Borendame, Sara Arizona Borgersen, Hanne Virginia Bosma, Sammie Texas A&M Brady, Sharli Missouri Brandon, Bonnie Arizona Brandt, Claire Texas A&M Bratton, Lisa Texas A&M Britt, Chelsea Florida State Brown, Allison Stanford Bruens, Harper Tennessee Bucz, Agi Florida Atlantic Burchell, Kaylin Alabama Callahan, Colleen Tennessee Cameron, Emily Georgia Campbell, Katy UCLA Carlson, Grace Stanford Carner, Amanda Tennessee Carter, Amber LSU Casey, Kendal Kentucky Casey, Shaun Virginia Chamberlain, Marie Indiana Chenault, Chelsea USC Cheng, Camille Cal Chin, Abby Louisville Clark, Casey Rice Clary, Lindsey Ohio State Colleou, Stina USC Cooper, Caitlin Virginia Corea, Sam Denver Cottrell, Andee Louisville Cox, Madisyn Texas Cummings, Kelsey Michigan Dalesandro, Gia Indiana Daniels, Nikki Arkansas Davis, Alexa Purdue Day, Allie Indiana Deloof, Ali Michigan Demonte, Anna Tennessee Denninghoff, Sarah Texas Dickson, Morgan Tennessee Donnelly, Fiona Virginia Tech Dressel, Kaitlyn Florida State Driscoll, Lauren Tennessee Duncan, Abby Missouri Dzierzak, Rachael Ohio State Engel, Lindsey Stanford Erasmus, Marne SMU Escobedo, Emily UMBC Finke, Autumn Florida Fittin, Carolyn Penn State Flickinger, Hali Georgia Fogle, Emily Purdue Fonteno, Megan Auburn Francis, Casey Penn State Franklin, Missy Cal Galat, Bethany Texas A&M Galyer, Danielle Kentucky Garcia Urzainqui, Marina Cal Gastaldello, Beryl Texas A&M Gibson, Sarah Texas A&M Gigliotti, Giuliana Utah Goldman, Leah Duke Gonzalez Medina, Esther Texas A&M Goss, Kennedy Indiana Goswell, Claudia Michigan Griffith, Mary Tennessee Grindall, Dana Wisconsin Grover, Katie UCLA Gruber, Maggie Virginia Tech Gustafsdottir, Johanna Florida International Haase, Sarah Stanford Halsted, Tara Stanford Hannis, Molly Tennessee Hardesty, Allyn North Carolina Harding, Sam Minnesota Harrington, Lauren Georgia Harrison, Sammy Oregon State Harrison, Summer San Diego St. Haulsee, Alison Virginia Henry, Sarah Texas A&M Hinds, Natalie Florida Hohmann, Georgia-Mae Florida Holtzen, Jenny Wisconsin Howe, Ally Stanford Hu, Janet Stanford Hull, Valerie Auburn Ibanez Lopez, Lili Texas A&M Janzen, Kiera Minnesota Jaques, Gretchen Texas Johnson, Faith Tennessee Jones, Kaitlyn Virginia Jonker, Franko Texas A&M Jonsdottir, Ingibjorg Arizona St. Karosas, Tasija Texas Katz, Taylor Florida Keire, Jacqueline Cincinnati Kingsley, Megan Georgia Klaren, Melanie Cal Kneppers, Andrea Louisville Kopas, Emily Michigan Kopcso, Kara LSU Kropp, Andrea USC Kylliainen, Tanja Louisville Laemmler, Nadine Western Kentucky Lazor, Annie Auburn Leberfinger, Greta Rutgers Lee, Danielle Harvard Leneave, Kelsey Texas Levendoski, Emma Bucknell Li, Celina Cal Li, Yawen Nevada Li, Zhesi Ohio State Lincoln, Hannah North Carolina Lindborg, Nathalie SMU Linn, Ashlee Florida Lips, Haley Indiana Lisy, Sam Indiana Lloyd, Natasha Auburn Locus, Madeline Georgia Lundstrom, Heather Tennessee Mack, Linnea UCLA MacLean, Brittany Georgia Malone, Kristin Texas A&M Mann, Katie New Hampshire Manuel, Simone Stanford Marchuk, Stephanie Indiana Marquess, Susan Western Kentucky Marr, Francesca Purdue Marrkand, Jen Virginia Martin, Ivy Wisconsin Mattern, Jordan Georgia Mau, Jasmine Cal Maughan, Amelia Florida Mayfield, Anna Arkansas McCormick, Morgan San Jose St. McDermott, Amber Georgia McGregor, Ashley Texas A&M McKnight, Lindsey Florida McMahon, Sycerika Texas A&M Meitz, Kaersten Purdue Michalak, Theresa Florida Millard, Rebecca Texas Miller, Chelsie Kansas Miller, Genevieve Air Force Moffitt, Hellen North Carolina Monroe, Maddie Arkansas Moore, Hannah Michigan Muller, Rachel NC State Munch, Katie North Carolina Myers, Abby Kentucky Nack, Danielle Minnesota Naze, Kelly Cal Nazieblo, Klaudia Virginia Tech Neal, Lia Stanford Neidigh, Ashley Auburn Neubert, Emily Texas A&M Nicholas, Tara-Lynn SMU Nicol, Rachel SMU Nonnenberg, Mia Alabama Norman, Laura Texas A&M Nunn, Emma North Carolina O’Neil, Colleen LSU Oder, Tjasa Arizona Oliver, Meredith Texas A&M Olsen, Katie Stanford Oquist, Caley LSU Osman, Farida Cal Paez, Isabella Duke Paluszek, Weronika Virginia Tech Pammett, Cynthia Indiana Pawlowicz, Kaitlin Texas Pelton, Elizabeth Cal Pepper, Elizabeth Arizona Peters, Courtney Georgia Peters, Stephanie Georgia Piehl, Caroline Cal Plant, Jessica Minnesota Pochowski, Sami Florida State Poli, Lauren NC State Poppe, Heidi Stanford Pressey, Bailey Indiana Purcell, Allyx Auburn Raab, Meaghan Georgia Reaney, Emma Notre Dame Ress, Justine Indiana Richey, Amanda Pitt Ritter, Kaleigh Pitt Roas, Johanna Denver Rodriguez, Melissa Penn State Ross, Katharine Missouri Rowe, Katie Penn State Roy, Taylor Florida Runge, Cierra Cal Runyon-Hass, Hannah North Carolina Ryan, Gillian Michigan Saunders, Emma Alabama Scalia, Silvia Florida International Schachter, Mia Tulane Schick, Taylor Arizona Schmidtke, Aliena Ohio State Schneider, Mimi Texas Schoettmer, Emma Arizona Sellers, Megan East Carolina Sheets, Rhiannon Purdue Simenec, Tori Minnesota Simon, Laura Virginia Simonovic, Kat Arizona St. Siverling, Danielle North Carolina Siverling, Megan Penn State Smiddy, Clara Michigan Smith, Kierra Minnesota Smith, Leah Virginia Smoliga, Olivia Georgia Snodgrass, Brooklynn Indiana Sougstad, Emma Iowa Sowinski, Katelyn Penn State Stevens, Hannah Missouri Stewart, Kendyl USC Stewart, Kylie Georgia Stewart, Mackenzie Virginia Tech Stoughton, Becky Iowa Svensson, Emma FGCU Swenson, Evan USC Szekeres, Dorina Indiana Tarazona, Noelle UCLA Tatlow, Chelsea Arkansas Tegner, Maddy Tennessee Thielmann, Jessica Florida Thomas, Ellen Virginia Thomas, Noemie Cal Toussaint, Kira FGCU Troskot, Leah LSU Valley, Danielle Wisconsin Van Camp, Jenna Towson Van Hout, Aja Wisconsin Van Landeghem, Chantal Georgia Vance, Ashley Ohio State Vargo, Taylor Ohio State Vay, Meredth South Carolina Verger Gourson, Margaux Pacific Vernon, Nicole Georgia Vitarius, Jillian Auburn Votava, Lauren Minnesota Vredeveld, Kristen Cal Weaver, Courtney Georgia Weiland, Becca Minnesota Weiss, Hannah USC White, Madison UCLA Wicks, Sam Boise St. Wilk, Kasia USC Williamson, Ellen Virginia Wine, Allison UCLA Worrall, Lucy USC Worrell, Kelsi Louisville Yambor-Maul, Alyssa Florida Zeiger, Brooke Minnesota Zevnik, Alexia NC State Zhu, Annie Georgia Zilinskas, Rachel Georgia Zimmerman, Maddy Yale

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Just saying

Stephanie Peters is ranked 39th in 500 free, which is her highest placing event. She isn’t listed among the 8 swimmers who are on the cut line. Any reason for this?

bvay

…please be right… please be right… please be right… please be right… ðŸ™‚

LBILSKI

I promise I’m not stalking your daughter, but I told Doug last night that I though Meredith would make the cut!

ThatSwimKid

Abby Duncan swims for Mizzou now.

SwimFast

…and swimming real well too!

### About Braden Keith

Braden Keith

Braden Keith is the Editor-in-Chief and a co-founder of SwimSwam.com. He first got his feet wet by building The Swimmers' Circle beginning in January 2010, and now comes to SwimSwam to use that experience and help build a new leader in the sport of swimming. Aside from his life on the InterWet, â€¦

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