NCAA Qualifiers: Who’s (Probably) In and Who Has Work to Do?

For elite teams, conference meets serve as somewhat of a warm up for nationals. They don’t fully taper their stars because they already secured nationals qualification earlier in the year. Which teams are in a position to rest less changes every year based on who has put up fast times already.

We can get an idea of which teams can comfortably avoid resting and which will have to drop everyone to obtain cuts by looking at how swimmer’s times so far this year compare to the projected nationals cuts I published last week.

In that article I projected both an exact cut estimate and a 95% confidence interval that the cuts are likely to fall in. Last year with projections using the same model all cuts fell within the projected confidence intervals.

  • If you need a refresher on how swimmers qualify for NCAA’s check out our article here. If you’re thinking “Didn’t the NCAA announce the A and B cuts months ago? Why are we guessing the cuts now?” The answer is there’s more to it than that. Check out the linked article for details.

To categorize times’ chances of getting in this year I called times that have been faster than the lower bound of the projected cut range in an event “Safe In.” Times in the confidence interval and faster than the projected cut are called “Bubble In,” and times in the confidence interval but slower than the projected cut are called “Bubble Out.”

The swimmers that are “Safe In” shouldn’t have anything to worry about. The model thinks there is a low chance that the cut will be outside the projected range and they are quicker than that already this season. The model thinks that the swimmers whose best event is “Bubble In” have a better than 50% chance of qualifying if they don’t improve their time at all at conference (obviously their chances will improve if they go faster). The swimmers whose best event is “Bubble Out” would not be a huge surprise if they qualified with their current time, but chances are better than not that they miss the meet unless they improve at conference.

Unsurprisingly the top ranked teams have the most likely qualifiers as of today. The women are led by Stanford who have 9 swimmers with at least one Safe In time, 1 swimmer with a Bubble In time, and 2 swimmers with Bubble Out times. Michigan, USC, Tennessee, and Texas A&M each have 7 swimmers with Safe In times.

The men are led by Cal who have 10 swimmers with at least 1 Safe In time, and 3 swimmers with Bubble In times. Texas are next with 9 Safe In swimmers, 3 Bubble In swimmers, and 5 Bubble Out swimmers.

The tables below contain the numbers of projected qualifiers with current times from each team, and below that how many times each swimmer from each team has in each category (swimmers not listed have 0 in all).

Team Qualifier Numbers

Number of swimmers on each team by their best qualification status in any event. That is if a swimmer has a time that is Safe In in one event and Bubble In in another, they count as Safe In only in the chart below.

Men

Safe In Bubble In Bubble Out
California 10 3 0
Texas 9 3 5
Michigan 7 2 0
Stanford 5 2 3
Indiana 4 1 2
Florida 3 0 4
Georgia Tech 3 0 0
Alabama 2 0 1
Arizona 2 1 0
Arizona St 2 0 0
Georgia 2 2 0
Missouri 2 1 5
Missouri St. 2 0 0
NC State 2 2 1
Notre Dame 2 0 0
Southern Cali 2 1 3
Tennessee 2 1 1
Virginia 2 0 0
Brigham Young 1 0 0
Denver 1 0 1
Grand Canyon 1 1 0
Harvard 1 2 0
Louisville 1 0 2
Minnesota 1 0 0
Texas A&M 1 1 2
Florida St 0 1 1
Hawaii 0 0 1
LSU 0 0 1
Ohio St 0 0 2
Pittsburgh 0 0 1
UCSB 0 1 1
Utah 0 0 2

Women

Safe In Bubble In Bubble Out
Stanford 9 1 2
Michigan 7 1 1
Southern Cali 7 1 0
Tennessee 7 1 0
Texas A&M 7 1 1
Indiana 6 2 0
California 5 1 1
NC State 5 4 2
Texas 5 4 1
Florida 4 1 2
Georgia 4 0 1
Minnesota 4 1 0
Kentucky 3 1 2
Missouri 3 1 2
Notre Dame 3 0 3
Arizona 2 2 1
Auburn 2 1 2
Louisville 2 4 2
Virginia 2 0 2
Alabama 1 1 0
Arkansas 1 0 1
Duke 1 0 1
Florida St 1 0 0
Hawaii 1 1 0
LSU 1 0 0
Northwestern 1 0 0
Ohio St 1 1 1
Penn St 1 0 1
Rutgers 1 0 1
SMU 1 0 0
South Carolina 1 0 0
Wisconsin 1 0 1
Yale 1 0 0
Akron 0 0 2
Arizona St 0 1 1
Liberty 0 0 1
New Mexico 0 0 1
Purdue 0 1 0
San Diego St 0 1 0
U.S. Navy 0 1 0
UNC 0 0 1
Villanova 0 0 1
Virginia Tech 0 0 1

Individual Qualifier Numbers

Number of times each swimmer has in each category. Everyone not listed here is likely out in all their events with their current times.

Men

  Safe In Bubble In Bubble Out
Alabama Bams, Laurent 1
  Howard, Robert 3
  Waddell, Zane 1 1
Arizona Dobbs, Chatham 2 1
  Fail, Brooks 2 1
  Iga, Jorge 1
Arizona St House, Grant 1
  Poti, Zachary 2
Brigham Young Sorenson, Payton 1
California Carr, Daniel 1 1
  Grieshop, Sean 1 2
  Hoffer, Ryan 1 1 1
  Jensen, Michael 1 1
  Julian, Trenton 1 1
  Mefford, Bryce 1 1
  Norman, Nick 1 1
  Quah, Zheng 1 1
  Sand, Carson 1
  Seliskar, Andrew 5
  Sendyk, Pawel 2
  Thomas, Mike 1 2
  Whitley, Reece 2
Denver Auchinachie, Cameron 1
  Gilbert, Colin 1
Florida Baqlah, Khader 1 1
  Finke, Bobby 1
  Freeman, Trey 1
  Rooney, Maxime 2
  Sanders, Grant 1
  Smith, Kieran 1
  Stokowski, Kacper 1
Florida St Kaleoaloha, Kanoa 1
  Pisani, Will 1
Georgia Acevedo, Javier 1 1 2
  Higgins, Walker 1
  Murphy, Camden 2
  Reed, Greg 1
Georgia Tech Correia, Rodrigo 1 1
  Ferraro, Christian 1
  Pumputis, Caio 2 2
Grand Canyon Antipov, Daniil 1
  Nikolaev, Mark 1 3
Harvard Farris, Dean 3 1 1
  Gures, Umitcan 1
  Houck, Logan 1
Hawaii Kokko, Olli 1
Indiana Apple, Zach 1 1
  Blaskovic, Bruno 2
  Brinegar, Michael 1
  Fantoni, Gabriel 1
  Finnerty, Ian 1
  Lanza, Vini 1 1
  Samy, Mohamed 1 1 1
Louisville Acosta, Marcelo 1
  Albiero, Nicolas 1
  Harting, Zach 1
LSU Luht, Karl 1
Michigan Auboeck, Felix 1 1
  Borges, Gus 1 1
  Callan, Patrick 1 1
  Chan, Will 1
  Cope, Tommy 2 1
  Montague, Jacob 1 1
  Smachlo, Miles 1 1
  Swanson, Charlie 2 1
  Vargas Jacobo, Ricardo 2
Minnesota McHugh, Max 1 1
Missouri Alexander, Nick 2 1
  Hicks, Caleb 1
  Lima, Giovanny 1
  OBrien, Jordan 2
  Schreuders, Mikel 2
  Staver, Nick 1
  Walton, Alex 1
  Wielinski, Jacob 1
Missouri St. Bish, Blair 1
  Osvath, Artur 1
NC State Korstanje, Nyls 1
  Molacek, Jacob 2 1
  Ress, Justin 2
  Stewart, Coleman 3 1 1
  Vazaios, Andreas 3
Notre Dame Barta, Marci 1
  Yeadon, Zach 2
Ohio St Gaziev, Ruslan 1
  Loy, Andrew 1
Pittsburgh Helmbacher, Samy 1
Southern Cali Koenigsperger, Mario 1
  Miljenic, Nikola 1
  Mulcare, Patrick 1 1
  Sancov, Alexei 1
  Valente, Alex 1
  Vissering, Carsten 1
Stanford Anderson, Matt 1 1
  Calloni, Johannes 1
  Conaton, Patrick 1
  DeVine, Abrahm 1
  Hirschberger, Matthew 1
  Levant, Jack 2
  Liang, Alex 1
  Murphy, James 1
  Roy, Daniel 1
  Sweetser, True 1 1
Tennessee Decoursey, Kyle 1
  Dunphy, Matthew 1 1
  Garcia, Matthew 1
  Reilman, Joey 2 1 1
Texas Artmann, Josh 1
  Collins, Jack 1
  Haas, Townley 2
  Harty, Ryan 2
  Jackson, Tate 2 1
  Katz, Austin 1
  Kibler, Drew 2 2
  Koustik, Andrew 1
  Newkirk, Jeff 1 1
  Pomajevich, Sam 1 1
  Sannem, Jake 1
  Scheinfeld, Charlie 2
  Shebat, John 1 1
  Vines, Braden 1
  Willenbring, Matthew 1
  Yeager, Chris 1
  Zettle, Alex 1
Texas A&M Bobo, Clayton 1
  Casas, Shaine 2 1
  Martinez, Angel 1
  Walker, Benjamin 1
UCSB Hotchkiss, Logan 1
  Tittle, Mason 1
Utah Becker, Nicholas 1
  McArthur, Daniel 1
Virginia Fong, Zach 1 1
  Giller, Robby 1

Women

  Safe In Bubble In Bubble Out
Akron Nogaj, Paulina 1
  Watson, Sarah 1
Alabama McMahon, Kensey 1
  White, Rhyan 1 1
Arizona Bernal, Aria 1
  Cox, Hannah 2
  Jacobsen, Kirsten 2
  Konopka, Katrina 1 1
  Macias, Ayumi 1
Arizona St Kansakoski, Silja 1
  Nordin, Emma 1
Arkansas Hopkin, Anna 2
  Palsha, Peyton 1
Auburn Falconer, Erin 1
  Fisch, Claire 1 1
  Hetzer, Emily 2
  Nero, Bailey 1 1
  Tetzloff, Alyssa 2
California Bilquist, Amy 2
  Blovad, Keaton 1 1 1
  Darcel, Sarah 2
  McLaughlin, Katie 3 1
  Neumann, Robin 2 1
  Weitzeil, Abbey 3
  Wilson, Alicia 1
Duke Jordan, Kylie 1
  Marsh, Alyssa 3 1
Florida Ault, Taylor 1
  Ball, Emma 1
  Braswell, Leah 2
  Dressel, Sherridon 1
  Fertel, Kelly 2
  Pearl, Vanessa 3 1
  Zavaros, Mabel 1 1
Florida St Hulkko, Ida 1
Georgia Burchill, Veronica 3
  Carnevale, Sofia 1
  Carter, Olivia 1 1
  Harnish, Courtney 2 1
  Luther, Dakota 1 1
Hawaii Hajkova, Karolina 1
  Hines, Phoebe 2
Indiana Andison, Bailey 2 1
  Jensen, Christie 1 1
  Jernberg, Cassy 1 1
  King, Lilly 2 1
  Kovac, Bailey 1
  Looze, Mackenzie 1 1
  Morley, Laura 1
  Peplowski, Noelle 2
Kentucky Bonnett, Bailey 1
  Edelman, Lauren 1
  Freriks, Geena 1
  Galyer, Ali 1
  Gati, Izzy 1
  Seidt, Asia 3
Liberty Finnigan, Alicia 1
Louisville Astashkina, Mariia 1 1
  Cattermole, Sophie 1
  Comerford, Mallory 4 1
  Friesen, Morgan 2
  Kendzior, Alina 1
  Kraus, Alena 1 1
  Oglesby, Grace 2 1
  Openysheva, Arina 2
LSU Knight, Haylee 1 1 1
Michigan Bi, Rose 1 2
  DeLoof, Catie 3
  Haughey, Siobhan 4
  Krause, Vanessa 1
  MacNeil, Maggie 4
  Postoll, Becca 1
  Schmidt, Sierra 2
  Tucker, Miranda 2 1
  Yeung, Jamie Zhen 1 1
Minnesota Kozelsky, Lindsey 2
  Munson, Rachel 1
  Nack, Chantal 2 1
  Padington, Mackenzie 3
  Waddell, Tevyn 2 1
Missouri Dahlgren, Kylie 1
  Evensen, Courtney 1
  Hynes, Haley 2
  King, Jennifer 1
  Ochitwa, Ann 2 2 1
  Thompson, Sarah 1 1
NC State Alons, Kylee 1
  Haan, Elise 1
  Hansson, Sophie 1 1
  Holub, Tamila 1
  Jahns, Anna 1
  Moore, Kate 1
  Muzzy, Emma 2
  Perry, Ky-lee 2
  Poole, Julia 2
  Rowe, Sirena 1
  Sargent, Makayla 1
New Mexico Palomino, Adriana 1
Northwestern Sheridan, Calypso 1 2 1
Notre Dame Dolan, Abbie 1
  Quast, Carly 1
  Smith, Nikki 1
  Stone, Lindsay 1
  Thomas, Luciana 1
  Treuth, Alice 1
Ohio St Demler, Kathrin 1 1 1
  Gresser, Hanna 1
  Kowal, Molly 1
Penn St Hart, Maddie 1
  McHugh, Ally 3
Purdue Phee, Jinq En 1
Rutgers Koprivova, Vera 1
  Stoppa, Francesca 1
San Diego St Vincent, Courtney 1
SMU Podmanikova, Andrea 1 1
South Carolina Barksdale, Emma 1 2
Southern Cali Aroesty, Margaret 1
  Ciesla, Marta 2
  Hansson, Louise 7 1
  Sanchez, Catherine 1 1
  Scott, Riley 2
  Tycz, Caitlin 1 1
  Wade, Tatum 1 1 1
  Wright, Maddie 1 1
Stanford Bartel, Zoe 1 1
  Byrnes, Megan 1 1
  Drabot, Katie 1 2
  Eastin, Ella 5 1
  Fackenthal, Amalie 1
  Forde, Brooke 2 2 1
  Goeders, Anya 1
  Nordmann, Lucie 1
  Ruck, Taylor 5
  Stevens, Leah 1
  Szekely, Allie 1 2
  Voss, Erin 1
Tennessee Banic, Madeline 1
  Brown, Erika 4 1
  Cieplucha, Tess 1
  Grinter, Bailey 1
  Moseley, Stanzi 1 3
  Nunan, Amanda 1
  Popov, Nikol 2
  Small, Meghan 3
Texas Adams, Claire 3
  Ariola, Grace 3
  Carrozza, Quinn 1
  Case, Lauren 1
  Cook, Julia 1 1 1
  Diener, Anelise 1 1
  Evans, Joanna 2
  Lohman, Kennedy 1
  Pfeifer, Evie 3 1
  Rule, Remedy 2
Texas A&M Belousova, Anna 2
  Gonzalez-Hermosillo, Monika 1 1
  Pickrem, Sydney 4 1
  Pike, Taylor 1
  Portz, Katie 1
  Quah, Jing 1
  Rasmus, Claire 1 1 1
  Toney, Camryn 1
  Yelle, Haley 1 1
U.S. Navy Barber, Lauren 2
UNC Countie, Grace 1
Villanova Montesi, Kelly 1
Virginia Christensen, Kaki 1
  Hill, Morgan 3 1
  Madden, Paige 2 1
  Moroney, Megan 1
Virginia Tech Vereb, Joelle 1
Wisconsin Nelson, Beata 4 1 1
  Unicomb, Jess 1
Yale Hindley, Bella 1 1

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Chas

When did Southern Cal become Southern Cali? Did I miss something?

Just how they’re uploaded into the USA Swimming database.

Snarky

LL Cool J said so.

Hannah

I think Kylee Alons should have one safe time based on her 200 fly from last week (assuming the bubble in time refers to her 50 free)

Correct me if there’s a time I’m missing/not uploaded yet, but I show her 200 fly as 1:57.03. That actually wouldn’t have qualified for the NCAA Championships in any season since 2013, so definitely not a safe time yet. Andrew’s projected standard for that event is 1:55.91, with a ‘lower bound’ of 1:55.42 and an ‘upper bound’ of 1:56.39, so she’s still squarely outside of that range.

Her 50 free is the bubble time – 22.26 hits Andrew’s projection precisely on the nose.

CT Swim Fan

I believe she did a low 155 in the 200 fly at Texas last weekend

Ahh yes, 1:55.16.

These results just pulled straight out of the NCAA database. Until those results get submitted to the database (it’s unusual for them to not be in there by Tuesday), they can’t count for NCAA qualifying, so that’s what we used for this analysis. Hopefully they get in there soon – we’ll update when they do.

Isaac

I feel like it’s way to early to look at this. Justin Ress bubble out? Lol

JP input is too short

NC State doesn’t really peak as hard for midseason as some other teams. He’ll be fine come ACCs.

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