Courtesy: Dominique Hérailh
The French Swimming Federation has released detailed statistics on all the swimming finals at the Paris Olympics, and in this article, we’ll break down the final of the men’s 200 free.
How this event would play out was up in the air throughout the race, with several lead changes and momentum swings. It was impossible to predict who would emerge atop the heap coming down the closing meters, and in the end, the three medalists were separated by only seven one-hundredths of a second.
If the times produced were nothing earth-shattering (perhaps the pool is to blame), the battle we were treated to made up for it as it was a tantalizing showdown.
The chart below shows that four different leaders followed each other throughout the race: Matt Richards, Lukas Märtens, Luke Hobson, and David Popovici.
- Hobson was out conservatively but came home like a freight train.
- Richards was consistently near the front throughout the race.
- Popovici alternated between first and fourth place throughout the race. We will see later that the ground he gained swimming was lost at the turns.
- Märtens lost his shot at the gold medal at the third turn.
Let’s break down the race.
We’ll break the race into several sequences: the start, turns and four “over the water” sectors.
The start
Richards was the best swimmer off the start: He had the quickest reaction time (0.60), longest underwater, and the fastest 15-meter split.
Hobson’s poor start cost him dearly. Losing almost four-tenths off the start, when he ended up finishing 0.07 back of gold, is a tough pill to swallow. He had the slowest opening 15 meters in the field.
Popovici also lost some ground opening up, giving three-tenths to Richards.
The Turns
The 15-meter times of the three turns are summarized in the visual below:
Both Richards and Hobson were quicker than Popovici over the first 15 meters of each 50.
In all three turns, Richards gained more than a half-second (0.54) advantage (0.84 if you add the gap to the start). Hobson had an advantage of six-tenths.
Märtens lost his chance at a medal on the third turn. If you watch the race, he goes into the wall with a clear lead, turns more than three-tenths ahead, but when they resurface off the turn, he’s all of a sudden back in third or fourth.
If we analyze the underwaters, we see that Hobson seemed to be the most effective. Although his underwaters are shorter than Richards, Hobson’s 15-meter times are faster. Richards may be going too far underwater for what he’s getting out of it.
Hobson’s short course experience in the NCAA likely plays a part in him nailing down the optimal length to go underwater in freestyle.
| Length UW | Time UW | Speed UW | |
| Popovici | 23.76 | 9.93 | 2.393 |
| Richards | 31.28 | 13.63 | 2.295 |
| Hobson | 24.37 | 9.93 | 2.454 |
“Over the Water” Segments
In the first 50 meters, Popovici was the fastest to get into action. At 25 meters, he had already regained 0.16 to Richards. Then it was Märtens who swam the fastest opening 50.
50-Meter Standings
- 1. L. Märtens 24.05
- 2. D. Popovici +0.05
- 3. M. Richards +0.11
- 8. L. Hobson +0.65
On the second 50, Märtens was the fastest followed by Hobson and Richards. Popovici had the fastest final five meters prior to the turn in the bunch.
100-Meter Standings
- 1. L. Märtens 50.52
- 2. M. Richards +0.40
- 3. D. Popovici +0.60
- 7. L. Hobson +0.85
On the third 50, Hobson made a big push to get back into medal contention. Richards had a bit of a lull from 125 to 145 meters, perhaps saving up for the last 50.
150-Meter Standings
- 1. L. Märtens 1:17.61
- 2. D. Popovici +0.37
- 3. M. Richards +0.38
- 4. L. Hobson +0.39
On the last 50, Popovici was the fastest from 175 meters. Five meters from the wall, Popovici was only third, sitting six one-hundredths back of Richards. At the finish, Popovici touched in 1:44.72, followed by Richards at 1:44.74 and Hobson at 1:44.79.
In the four 35-meter “over the water” sectors, the rankings are as follows:
| Time (s) | Speed m/s | |
| Popovici | 77.07 | 1.817 |
| Scott | 77.18 | 1.814 |
| Märtens | 77.29 | 1.811 |
| Hobson | 77.65 | 1.803 |
| Richards | 77.93 | 1.796 |
Let’s finish with the progression of the time differences between the three medalists throughout the race.
Three observations from the graph above:
- Hobson made his typical push on the third 50, making up a massive amount of ground from 125 to 145 meters.
- Richards’ lull from 125 and 145 meters was where he lost the lead.
- Popovici’s finish was remarkable.
Pan vs Popovici either has the makings of an epic rivalry or 2 swimmers carving out a niche as 100 and 200fr specialists respectively.
I don’t think a former world recorder, world champion and Olympic medalist in 100m free who’s also the only one in history so far to swim under 47 seconds multiple times besides Pan could be considered a “200m free specialist”.
Popovici said he wasn’t fully tapered at Euros when he dropped a 46.88/143.13. Did he over taper or miss his taper for Paris then or just have an off race? He still won the 200m Gold even on a “bad day” because he was so far ahead of everyone else in season.
Coleman should have an interview and ask him! He said he’s taking a long vacation, so maybe not for a while though… he did kind of imply in one interview I heard that it can be hard for him to deal with the pressure at the Olympics. All said and done, he’s already a double World Champ and a double Olympic medalist, so if he wants to wait until Euros to set some world records, that’s fine with me!
Sometimes the first Olympic gold can take enough pressure off and allow future ‘big meet’ races to be faster.
We need to stop thinking tapering means a whole lot these days.
If anything when he’s dropping times like that at euros “tapering” would be a huge mistake. You should just continue on the path you’re on without overdoing it.
Excellent analysis, well done SwimSwam.
Interestingly, Ian Thorpe was 0.01 seconds faster 20 years ago in an outdoor pool with no foot wedge of the blocks. It’s all about racing at the Olympics though, I’m very happy Popovici won it given his dominance, mostly on the clock.
Some talking about what Pan could do. Well if we all acknowledge the pool was about 0.4 seconds slow over 100m, then that puts Pan’s 100m at 46.00 in a normal pool. He is still very young, most sprinters peak in their early 20’s, if following this pattern Pan should go 45.6. Anyone who can swim a 45 (which he did in the relay) 100m should theoretically go 1.40 to 1.41… Read more »
Can we plz get the last name fixed in the title?
Thanks!
I wish Pan would take this race seriously for the individual event. Seems like his holdup is largely mental, which is why I think he should just approach this race first with the fly and die strategy before fine-tuning.
The funny plot here would be Pan taking down Sun Yang’s 200 FR Asian Record at the 2025 Nationals which is supposed to be Sun’s grand return meet
Without he 100 free focus, we might not get the 100 we got in paris
I’m still veru curious abour the what if of Pan in this event, with a 400 faster that Popovici and that monstrous kick on paper it seems he should be going 1:43 too, operative phrase there is “on paper”.
Even with the excuse of “almost everyone else was doing it” and possible minor illness, there is an emerging pattern of Popovici underperforming in the big races that I’m confident he can address but at this point it’s too conspicious to ignore (I’m sure he’s sleeping pretty as he should as an olympic gold medalist at, he’s still not 20 yet is he!?)
In any case, he isn’t displaying the kind of dominance everyone was prophesying for him in 2022, but maybe that’s a good thing.
WC/OG Popovici vs Euro Champs Popovici is basically the jacked Spongebob meme
Or Buff Doge vs Cheems (may their souls rest in peace).
He swam a 1:43:23 for his 200m world title tho.
*1:43:21
The way he slugged this one out suggests he’s a racer as well as a times monster and certainly no choke artist, wonder if it is just the chop and unless he gets out early the big finals he gets bounced around a bit?
All this + long arms
Similarly to the 100 breast and 200 back, a great race, but a slow one – even still, that 1:44.7 hurt when Popovici was 1:43.1 weeks earlier. Maybe the best example of how the slow pool equalised.
Only compared to Popovici’s own standard, otherwise it was pretty in line with how the events been the past several years
Meh. Martens’s PB is 1:44.1, Scott’s is 1:44.2, Richards’s 1:44.3, Hwang Sunwo’s 1:44.4. The only one who didn’t underperform was Hobson.