First For Phelps: Takes Top Seed In 200m Fly Prelims At Trials

There are still firsts left for Michael Phelps in his career. Today, for the first time in his career, he took the top seed in the 200m butterfly prelims at an Olympic Trials.

Phelps was a 1:56.68 to top the charts this morning, the second fastest he’s ever been in the heats of the 200m butterfly at trials.

 Olympic Trials Prelims Time Prelims Place Semifinal Time Semifinal Place Final Time Final Place
2000 1:58.61 2nd 1:58.24 2nd 1:57.48 2nd
2004 1:58.07 2nd 1:56.66 1st 1:54.31 1st
2008 1:55.85 3rd 1:54.02 1st 1:52.20 1st
2012 1:57.75 3rd 1:56.42 3rd 1:53.65 1st
2016  1:56.68  1st

Phelps has been the king of the 200m butterfly since he set the world record in the event in 2001 at the world championship trials in Austin, Texas.

His inauguration into the international swimming scene occurred at the 2000 Olympic Trials in the 200m butterfly where he ended up finishing second to Tom Malchow and qualifying for his second Olympic team.

Since then, Phelps has contested this event at every Olympic Trials, and has never lost since his second place finish in 2000.

Over the years, the times have gotten faster, albeit his 2012 Olympic Trials results were slower than his 2008 results.

A few interesting trends show up in the race data from Phelps’ 200m butterfly races at trials. Phelps has never gone into the semifinals as the number one seed until today. In both 2000 and 2004, he went in as the second fastest swimmer. In 2008 and 2012, he was third after the heats.

In 2000, thats very much indicative of him being the underdog. In 2004, 2008, and 2012, Phelps had such a heavy program at trials that he likely cruised the prelims since he was in such a good position to move forward to the semifinals and didn’t need to wear himself out.

This time around it infers that Phelps is either in amazing shape as he’s led the world to believe in his run-up to the trials, or he stepped on the gas hard this morning. Either way, he looked great, only tightening up slightly in the last 20-meters.

Another interesting correlation between Phelps trials results and his Olympic results takes place. Phelps has only won gold at the games when he’s taken the top seed after the semifinals. Although the relationship between these two results is a stretch at best, it’s an interesting trend.

The result could refer to how Phelps is feeling heading into the meet. In 2000, Phelps was largely the underdog which once again explains why defending Olympic silver medallist Malchow would be faster in prelims, semifinals, and finals.

Between 2004 and 2008, he was arguably in the best shape of his career. That would mean that he could cruise through the semifinals with an easy swim, which still topped the field. In 2012, it’s now known that he wasn’t putting his all into his training, which could explain how his “cruise” speed couldn’t top the field.

Now, with the hard work he’s claimed to put in, Phelps will once again race the semifinals of the 200m butterfly finals. If Phelps is first tonight, and ultimately makes the team, we’ll be able to see if the correlation between first in semifinals at trials and gold at the games stays true.

 

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ERVINFORTHEWIN
7 years ago

I have read the article and 2 mistakes are to be noticed : Phelps swam in 2000 in Sidney for his 1st Olympics ( not second ) and he did finish 5th in the 200 butterfly in final ( not second as mentioned ) . Thank you for the corrections

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  ERVINFORTHEWIN
7 years ago

He finished 2nd at trials. Lol, this is trials yo.

Barrelroll
Reply to  SwimmerFoxJet
7 years ago

Still says that by qualifying to Sydney, he made his second Olympic team. So that’s the mistake

Swammer
Reply to  Barrelroll
7 years ago

nah 11 year old Michael tore it up in Atlanta don’t you remember? oh wait

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  Swammer
7 years ago

Lol, yeh he went a 2:15. Actually I wonder the accuracy of my guess.

Dr.x
7 years ago

After this I am very much certain that he dips into 152 low or 151 high in Rio
Still don’t think that Rome WR is going down.
1 51 high will be the winner.
( P.S. – I WOULD LOVE TO BE PROVED WRONG ????)

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  Dr.x
7 years ago

1:51.51 should go down.

25.0
53.1
1:22.25
1:51.4

He has the ability for the first 150, but he has to make that last 50m like 2008 comeback. He usually slows down there.

ZachBob
7 years ago

It’s early, but his swim did kind of worry me.
1) He was clearly unhappy with his race ( granted he is a perfectionist )
2) He DID tighten up that last 25m or so ( I’ve never seen that from him at previous OLY T’s )
Again … it’s still so early, but judging by the way he looked, I’d guess he ends up making the team in 1:54 low
but Conger beats him out for 1st in 1:53 high. He might have overtrained, unfortunately.

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  ZachBob
7 years ago

I think that Phelps beats Conger with a 1:53 mid or low. And his turns weren’t perfect at all. Tighten up, well, I don’t know if he was doing that or backing off. But 1:53 is safe. 1:52 is also safe.

Bengt
7 years ago

I think Michael will finish 4th in the final

Henrik
Reply to  Bengt
7 years ago

At best. I think 6th or 7th is more optimistic. His only shot is the 200 IM in my opinion, but even there he wont medal in rio. Hagino and the other guys are improving too fast, sorry to say it, but that is a fact.

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  Henrik
7 years ago

It is not a fact. Phelps will probs make wr for im. And 200 Fly a Gold medal in Rio. Are you trolling?

Brownish
Reply to  SwimmerFoxJet
7 years ago

I don’t mind the IM at all (what about Hagino?) but 200 fly no Gold for him, I’m sorry.

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  Brownish
7 years ago

You cannot say that. I can’t say that he will win. But it is not a fact either way. Only likelihood. Which has favored Phelps in the past.

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  Brownish
7 years ago

Hagino could go 1:56, 1:55 or 1:54 at Rio. I suspect the last one.

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  Bengt
7 years ago

First yo.

Mose
7 years ago

That was a lucky swim for Phelps. In my opinion he has no chance at all qualifying for the US Olympic Team. You could clearly see that the other guys were chillin while Michael was struck by the acid

Henrik
Reply to  Mose
7 years ago

Couldnt agree more. Finally someone who shares my opinons. He is too old for this game!

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  Henrik
7 years ago

Let us talk after tomorrow.

Brownish
Reply to  Henrik
7 years ago

Ask e.g. Laszlo about it. Three guys are on the podium all together 85 years of age. Good not?

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  Mose
7 years ago

Exact opposite. He was chilling.

Swammer
Reply to  SwimmerFoxJet
7 years ago

Didn’t take a hard stroke in the first 100, I was legit laughing at the tv because his stroke looked so easy

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  Mose
7 years ago

Phelps went 1:52.94 last year. And he is in better shape.

Caleb
7 years ago

In the last three trials, between prelims and finals he’s dropped 3.7 seconds, 3.6 and 4.1. Pretty consistent. That would put him between 1:53.0 and 1:52.5 in finals which lines up with everything else we’ve seen the past two years.

tm71
Reply to  Caleb
7 years ago

I think we should all be happy with a 153 low in the final

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  tm71
7 years ago

Yes, we would. But we would be happier with a 1:52 mid. I think Caleb is right, 1:52.5-1:53.0 But he could go slower, or faster.

Dr.x
Reply to  Caleb
7 years ago

He would be around 153 mid in finals, sealing the deal.

Jeahswim
7 years ago

Guarantee if you ask him that was the easiest 1:56 of his life, definitely a world record from him in this, just don’t know if he will do it tommorow night or leave something more for rio

Stephen
7 years ago

I think he can go a 1:49.9 in semi 1:49.4 in final and 1:48.9 in Rio

Attila the Hunt
Reply to  Stephen
7 years ago

Times do NOT matter… GRRRRRRRRR

ERVINFORTHEWIN
Reply to  Stephen
7 years ago

with a super propeller , why not

swimmer
Reply to  Stephen
7 years ago

If he tries really REALLY hard he can go 1:40.0123456 in 20 years in our local pool…

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  Stephen
7 years ago

I am going to report you guys if you keep making (it’s a joke, lol) Phelps look bad.

About Mitch Bowmile

Mitch Bowmile

Mitch worked for 5-years with SwimSwam news as a web producer focusing on both Canadian and international content. He coached for Toronto Swim Club for four seasons as a senior coach focusing on the development of young swimmers. Mitch is an NCCP level 2 certified coach in Canada and an ASCA Level …

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