As the dust settles on U.S., Australian, Canadian, and French Olympic Trials, we’re taking a bird’s-eye view of how the relay battles are shaping up.
Olympic-Qualified Relays
The top 12 relays at 2019 World Championships earned Olympic berths for their nations. Four more nations earned berths by putting up the fastest times among unqualified nations over a 15-month period leading up to the Olympics.
| Nation | ||
| 1 | 2019 Worlds | USA |
| 2 | 2019 Worlds | Australia |
| 3 | 2019 Worlds | Italy |
| 4 | 2019 Worlds | Canada |
| 5 | 2019 Worlds | China |
| 6 | 2019 Worlds | Sweden |
| 7 | 2019 Worlds | Great Britain |
| 8 | 2019 Worlds | Japan |
| 9 | 2019 Worlds | Germany |
| 10 | 2019 Worlds | Netherlands |
| 11 | 2019 Worlds | Switzerland |
| 12 | 2019 Worlds | Russia |
| 13 | Wild Card | Belarus |
| 14 | Wild Card | Finland |
| 15 | Wild Card | Hong Kong |
| 16 | Wild Card | South Africa |
Aggregate times below are based on season-bests from September 2020 through June 2021. Lifetime-bests or time drops can obviously change the picture significantly. We’ll do a more in-depth preview of each relay event in the coming weeks, but this first-look projection is aimed at specifically seeing the impacts of recent Olympic Trials meets on the Olympic relay picture.
The Favorites
| USA | |
| Swimmer | Split |
| Regan Smith | 57.92 |
| Lilly King | 1:04.72 |
| Torri Huske | 55.66 |
| Abbey Weitzeil | 53.52 |
| TOTAL: | 3:51.82 |
When the U.S. broke the world record with four relatively young swimmers (17/22/24/22) in 2019, it looked like we could be seeing a potential dynasty for a nation that won Olympic gold in 2016, then Worlds gold in both 2017 and 2019. But the world is closing in fast, and we’ve got three true gold medal contenders up in this top category.
For the U.S., Smith has the potential to be faster – she was 57.5 when setting the world record back in 2019. King has never been significantly faster on relays, but is the world record-holder at 1:04.1. The 18-year-old Huske is an Olympic rookie. Weitzeil has split 52 plenty of times before. The wild card is Simone Manuel, a potential 51-second split for Team USA who missed the Olympic team in the 100 free. She’s on the team as a 50 freestyler and could be a coach’s decision to join this relay at the end of the meet if she recovers well from three weeks away from training this spring.
| Australia | |
| Swimmer | Split |
| Kaylee McKeown | 57.45 |
| Chesea Hodges | 1:05.99 |
| Emma McKeon | 55.93 |
| Cate Campbell | 52.43 |
| TOTAL: | 3:51.80 |
Australia has the new world record-holder in backstroke with McKeown. They’ve also got McKeon, one of the top fly legs in the field, and one of the most dangerous anchors in Campbell. Breaststroke is really the only hurdle for Australia – they lost 1.2 seconds to the U.S. on that leg in 2019.
| Canada | |
| Swimmer | Split |
| Kylie Masse | 57.70 |
| Kelsey Wog | 1:06.77 |
| Maggie MacNeil | 56.14 |
| Penny Oleksiak | 52.89 |
| TOTAL: | 3:53.50 |
All of these teams have the ability to get out front, or at least stay with the lead pack, on backstroke. That’s an absolutely key element to getting your breaststrokers and butterflyers clean water. Canada also has a bit of a breaststroke issue, but they’ve got the defending world champ in butterfly, plus the defending Olympic champ in the 100 free.
The most likely scenario is a dead heat through backstroke, with the U.S. pulling out to a breaststroke lead. Then the run-down will begin, with MacNeil, McKeon, Campbell and Oleksiak trying to run down the less-experienced U.S. back half.
The Contenders
| China | |
| Swimmer | Split |
| Fu Yuanhui | 59.58 |
| Tang Qianting | 1:06.40 |
| Zhang Yufei | 55.62 |
| Yang Junxuan | 53.21 |
| TOTAL: | 3:54.81 |
These two are probably outside of medal contention unless something wonky happens with one of the top three. China should have an excellent back half – Zhang Yufei might wind up with the best fly split of the field. But they’ll need more out of the front half to stay in the race.
| Great Britain | |
| Swimmer | Split |
| Kathleen Dawson | 58.08 |
| Molly Renshaw | 1:06.21 |
| Harriet Jones | 57.79 |
| Freya Anderson | 53.40 |
| TOTAL: | 3:55.48 |
The British team won Euros by two full seconds, going 3:54.0 – so don’t put too much stock in this aggregate time exactly. Dawson should stick with the top backstrokers out of the gate. Anderson is a relay machine on the anchor leg. Laura Stephens swam the final of this relay at Euros and split 57.5. She could be an option over Jones.
The Field
Japan has a really high ceiling… but they’ve got a real puzzle to solve. Rikako Ikee could swim fly or free, depending on her status coming off of a battle with leukemia. Natsumi Sakai is the top backstroker this year, but also the top 100 freestyler after Ikee. Here are two potential lineup options based on season-bests:
| Japan v1 | |
| Swimmer | Split |
| Natsumi Sakai | 59.54 |
| Kanako Watanabe | 1:06.51 |
| Suzuka Hasegawa | 57.70 |
| Rikako Ikee | 53.98 |
| TOTAL: | 3:57.73 |
| Japan v2 | |
| Swimmer | Split |
| Anna Konishi | 59.93 |
| Kanako Watanabe | 1:06.51 |
| Rikako Ikee | 57.77 |
| Natsumi Sakai | 54.32 |
| TOTAL: | 3:58.53 |
Italy could take advantage of the breaststroke weakness across almost all of these contenders. Martina Carraro is the new national record-holder and a strong breaststroker. Italy was third at Euros in 3:56.3, with Arianna Castiglioni taking the breaststroke leg.
| Italy | |
| Swimmer | Split |
| Margherita Panziera | 59.01 |
| Martina Carraro | 65.86 |
| Elena di Liddo | 57.85 |
| Federica Pellegrini | 53.86 |
| TOTAL: | 3:56.58 |
Sweden has all the pieces to be elite here… but their best swimmer is coming off of a broken elbow that might blow the whole operation. Sweden was fourth at Euros without Sarah Sjostrom. Current projections (with season-bests) would have them back in the 3:57s, but if Sjostrom can come anywhere near her world-record-level 51.7 speed, they rise to just outside the top three in a hurry.
| Sweden | |
| Swimmer | Split |
| Michelle Coleman | 1:00.00 |
| Sophie Hansson | 1:05.69 |
| Louise Hansson | 56.73 |
| Sarah Sjostrom | 54.84 |
| TOTAL: | 3:57.26 |
Still have this as very narrow Adv USA but I wouldn’t care to wager Ye Olde Family Homestead on that.
US are certainly not the medal engraved certainties we thought post 2019 Worlds. The presumed Smith supremacy on backstroke looks to have been negated by both AUS & CAN. Manuel’s malaise has potentially exposed a significant weakness on free. King remains their one peak weapon but she will also have the additional mileage of the 200.
On paper times, AUS looks on par with USA with 3 legs where they are either on par or superior to US but breaststroke remains questionable. It will also boil down to management of key assets (McKeown, McKeon, C1) AND what priority they place… Read more »
For me this race basically comes down to Hodges’ breaststroke leg. She cracked 1:05 for the first time (marginally). If she swims a 1:06 relay split it’s all over for Australian whereas if she can split 1:05 low it’s all over for USA as King has never split 1:04 low on relays
I back Campbell to chase anyone down if she’s within a second. She won’t be 50.8 again but I think 51-mid is very doable for her
1:04.15 King, Lilly World Championships Budapest Jul 26, 2017
1:04.48 King, Lilly World Championships Budapest Jul 30, 2017
But that was just one meet.
Gold – USA
Silver – Australia
Bronze – Canada
D.H. – Sweden
Really hoping Sweden takes Junevik as a relay only swimmer, if she can find the 54.3 split that she produced in Europeans. Sweden may be able to scrape through to the finals in both free and medley, and rest someone.
It will be USA v AUS for gold and CAN v CHN for bronze. Whatever happens, come the freestyle leg the USA will be in front and if it goes as described here that lead will be 1.09 seconds. Cate Campbell is at her best when she has someone to chase and nothing to lose. The USA coaches have a tough decision to make about who is best placed to hold that lead. This is too close to call which is why it will be the most exciting relay on the women’s side.
I feel like Canada’s Brst is just too much of a hurdle for them to win the event. Australia’s is a massive problem, and then Canada are almost another second back.
“Martina Carraro is the new national record-holder” well that didn’t age well. 😀
Would love GB to get a medal but I think they’ll finish 4th. US and Australia way ahead. Canada and GB in a battle for bronze. Dawson will keep close with Masse. Renshaw will beat whoever the canadian breastroker is. Anderson can mix it with Oleksiak but that fly leg will cost them. MacNeil will be way faster than Stephens or Jones.