Dolfin Swim(s) of the Week: Ranking the Gwangju WRs By How Long They’ll Stand

Disclaimer: Dolfin Swim of the Week is not meant to be a conclusive selection of the best overall swim of the week, but rather one Featured Swim to be explored in deeper detail. The  Dolfin Swim is an opportunity to take a closer look at the context of one of the many fast swims this week, perhaps a swim that slipped through the cracks as others grabbed the headlines, or a race we didn’t get to examine as closely in the flood of weekly meets.

It’s too hard to pick just one. So let’s rank down all of the world records from the 2019 World Championships – with a twist. We’ll rank by how long we think each record will stand, from the shortest to the longest tenures:

#10. Men’s 200 Breaststroke: Matthew Wilson (AUS), 2:06.67 (sf, =)

An easy one to start with, because this one only lasted about a day. It’s no less impressive, though, as it felt like about 20 men had been chasing this record for years, and Wilson was just the second man since 2012 to go as fast as 2:06.67. It’s also important because men’s breaststroke had previously been a weakness for Australia, but is now coming around as a serious strength.

#9. Women’s 100 Backstroke: Regan Smith (USA), 57.57 (r)

This record could go down again this week. Seriously. Smith is only 17 and she’s improving fast. She only had one go at the 100 back at Worlds, and it’s possible she’s spotted an area or two to improve, the way you’d typically iron out wrinkles between prelims and finals.

#8. Women’s 200 Backstroke: Regan Smith (USA), 2:03.35 (sf)

The 200 back seems a tiny bit less likely to fall again this week, as Smith did get three cracks at the event at Worlds and went backwards a little bit in the final. Still, it’d hardly be a shock to see a young swimmer like Smith hit a big swim in-season next year, and this record is absolutely on high alert come U.S. Olympic Trials.

#7. Men’s 100 Breaststroke: Adam Peaty (GBR), 56.88 (sf)

Peaty has been known to come up with a big swim domestically – he first broke this record at British World Champs Trials in 2015. Without a 50 breast at the Olympics, Peaty should be 100% focused on the 100-meter distance. And it’s only a small factor, but since we are ranking these events head-to-head, there’s a good chance Peaty breaks his own record in heats or semis in Tokyo, while some other events are more likely to fall later in the program during finals.

#6. Women’s 4×200 Freestyle Relay: Australia (Titmus, Wilson, Throssell, McKeon), 7:41.50

Now we’re getting into the records we don’t anticipate falling before Tokyo. It’s doubtful any world record contending countries will go after a full relay before the Olympics. But with Australia opening the floodgates in this 4×200, it’s highly likely it falls again in 2020. To whom? We don’t know yet. The Americans should have a real shot, especially if Katie Ledecky is back to 100% and their depth steps up in the Olympic year. But the Australian women have quite a relay team, and it probably only gets stronger if Shayna Jack‘s looming doping suspension is short enough to keep her in Olympic roster contention.

#5. Women’s 4×100 Medley Relay: United States (R.Smith, King, Dahlia, Manuel), 3:50.40

Another relay record that’s likely to fall next summer. Smith and Manuel are both clearly improving. King and Dahlia went a little backwards in 2018, but not enough to counter Smith’s improvements. Why rank this one above the 4×200? Because the women’s medley relay comes after the women’s 4×200 in Tokyo.

#4. Men’s 200 Breaststroke: Anton Chupkov (RUS), 2:06.12

It’s hard to overstate what a huge swim this was in context. Chupkov’s previous best time was a 2:06.80 from Euros last year. In 2017, he was 2:06.96. In 2016, he was 2:07.70. So his improvement this season at age 22 was about equal to his 2016 improvement at the young age of 19. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Chupkov smash into the 2:05s next year. But it would be equally unsurprising to see him go 2:06-low again, winning gold but just missing his record.

#3. Men’s 200 Butterfly: Kristof Milak (HUN), 1:50.73

Like Chupkov’s swim, Milak’s constituted an amazing drop from his previous best. Milak is just 19, so big drops aren’t quite so out of the ordinary. But there are a couple reasons to rank this record as a relatively lower probability of being re-broken next year. First: Milak will turn 20, and it’s not fair to expect the same insane improvement curve that most elite athletes have as teens to continue. Second: Milak mentioned that he’ll take a bit of a break from butterfly and work on his versatility. It’s very possible that a talent like Milak could next year be a multi-event medalist between free and fly, and could help Hungary have a historic showing on free relays, while also regressing a tiny bit (but still winning gold) in his bread-and-butter 200 fly.

#2. Men’s 100 Butterfly: Caeleb Dressel (USA), 49.50 (sf)

Hear us out: no one is getting rich predicting the imminent decline of Dressel. (Last summer proved that). But Dressel, like Milak, might spend the coming year fleshing out his event lineup rather than laser-focusing on one race. This summer, Dressel had reason to put a premium on butterfly, with two medal opportunities, a chance at redemption from his 2017 50 fly medal miss, and a pretty legendary Michael Phelps world record just ahead of him. 2020, though, lowers the impact of butterfly relative to other strokes, as there’s no 50 fly in the Olympics. Dressel may put a premium on freestyle over the coming year, trying to get the super-suited 50 and 100 free records that narrowly evaded him this year. It’s also possible Dressel tries to improve his 200 free in search of another relay medal (or just to shore up the American 4×200 free relay depth, which looks precarious after 2019). Or, if Dressel really wants to Phelps it up, he may be looking for a couple outside events to add to his likely 6 events: 50 free, 100 free, 100 fly, men’s medley relay, mixed medley relay, mens’ 4×100 free relay. Adding the men’s 4×200 relay, the individual 200 free or even the individual 200 fly could offer Dressel a chance at 7 or 8 medals in the chase to replace Phelps as Team USA’s powerhouse. Diversifying a lineup could add total medals, but could make Dressel more fatigued by the time the 100 fly rolls around on day 6.

#1. Mixed 4×100 Freestyle Relay: United States (Dressel, Apple, Comerford, Manuel), 3:19.40

This is probably an anti-climactic end to this list. Oh well. The mixed free relay isn’t included at the 2020 Olympics, and it’s unlikely any nation will really gear up for it at any point. This record is probably safe until 2021.

 

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swimfan210_
3 years ago

rn its more like “ranking the contenders on who gets back in the water/back in shape first”

Teddy Murphey
4 years ago

200 breast could be lower given the rumors that Chupkov was sick and lost around 3 kg at training camp shortly before Gwangju. 2:05 seems very doable by Chupkov, Wilson, or even Ippei or an American. 2:07s are typical swims now, and that is only a second and some change from the WR. If the 200 gets a Peaty-esque swimmer, 2:04 looks possible to me.

Hmmmm
4 years ago

The mixed free relay isn’t at the Olympics?

Definitely not sun yang
Reply to  Hmmmm
4 years ago

Nope

Boknows34
Reply to  Hmmmm
4 years ago

Only the mixed medley.

Hhh
Reply to  Hmmmm
4 years ago

No thank god. It’s okay at wc. But at Olympics? Naah. There’s already 6relays. If they are going to add something it would have to be all 50s. 50s make more sense than women 1500m and men 800m. Since 100m is really not sprint. And 50 still takes longer than second shortest running distanse at track and field

Poppin Ov
4 years ago

I really don’t know how peaty gets much better, that swim was almost perfect.
That being said, if there is anyone to do it, it’s him

Admin
Reply to  Poppin Ov
4 years ago

I’ve long thought breaststroke would hit its theoretical maximum before other strokes, because of the discrete nature of the stroke cycle. When you’re only taking 6 or 7 strokes a length, knocking a whole stroke cycle off of that is a pretty significant threshold to meet.

Thomas
Reply to  Braden Keith
4 years ago

I agree, but I also believe enough is changing in races/events/gear to counteract the theoretical maximum. Think about backstroke wedges, block wedges, even the addition of goggles a long time ago. It’s reasonable to see unlimited dolphin kicks added to breastroke soon, which will then counteract the maximum Peaty may have reached or will reach soon.

Tim
Reply to  Thomas
4 years ago

If FINA allow unlimited fly kicks on Breastroke then the event is over – may as well just take Breastroke out of the program and add the other stroke 50s and do Fly twice on IM

NoFlyKick
Reply to  Tim
4 years ago

As it is there are 2 strokes, br and underwater dolphin kicking. I know that fl/bk/fr are different strokes, but if you have a poor dolphin kick you can’t be competitive in any of them, especially short course. How well you kick underwater is a whole lot more important than how well you swim backstroke, in a backstroke race, for example. (enter Cindy Tran into evidence)

Daddy
Reply to  NoFlyKick
4 years ago

Short course yes, long course less so

Outside Smoke
4 years ago

another fun one would be, rather than “when will the record fall,” do a piece on how long each current record-holder could hold the record! (eliminates continuous breaking from Peaty, Smith, etc. etc.) — see how it matches up to Phelps holding the 200 fly record for nearly 2 decades, etc.

Definitely Not Sun Yang
4 years ago

Good article. Definitely agree that Regan Smith has a chance to crack her world record at nats. Interesting opinion: I’d say Dressel’s 100 fly world record is up there with Peaty’s. The breaststroke events didn’t get the same boost from the supersuits as other events. This somewhat makes sense because the buoyant force of the polyurethane is more likely to affect the up and down motions in the other events than the out and in motion of breaststroke. All the supersuited Olympic breaststroke records were taken down by 2012. I’m sure everyone no one will question that the breaststroke world records were extremely soft before chupkov and peaty got to them, but if we look at the time differential between… Read more »

SAMUEL HUNTINGTON
Reply to  Definitely Not Sun Yang
4 years ago

Disagree. Peaty is 1.4 seconds faster than anyone! Off the top of my head I know Phelps, Cavic, Crocker, le Clos, Schooling and others have been within 1.4 seconds of Dressel’s time. Dressel needs to go 48 to be in league with Peaty.

Guy
4 years ago

It would be crazy if Dressel wins 7 Golds in Tokyo. But I think it’s reasonable, he could win 4×200 4×100 free and both 4×100 medleys and 50 free 100 free 100 fly

Robbos
Reply to  Guy
4 years ago

King Kyle says hello.

Justhereforfun
Reply to  Guy
4 years ago

Everything has to be perfect for him to win 7 in Tokyo. I’m not doubting Dressel in any way, but let’s look at what took Phelps to win 8 in Beijing: that Lezak split, the 100 fly magic, swimming with goggles filled and still win…. Dressel might be in the shape of his life come Tokyo, but the chances of ALL circumstances coming together in favor of the USA just isn’t likely

Mikael Laakso
Reply to  Guy
4 years ago

Both 4x100m there is no mixed relays at Olympics Thank god

FLSwimmer
4 years ago

Ol’ Longhorn gettin roasted and toasted by SwimSwam at #2

Philip Johnson
Reply to  FLSwimmer
4 years ago

Lol

Anonymous
Reply to  FLSwimmer
4 years ago

All fun and games, but reporting should be objective. I don’t have a stance on the issue, but taking potshots at a particular commenter is beneath a reputable swim website.

About Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson swam for nearly twenty years. Then, Jared Anderson stopped swimming and started writing about swimming. He's not sick of swimming yet. Swimming might be sick of him, though. Jared was a YMCA and high school swimmer in northern Minnesota, and spent his college years swimming breaststroke and occasionally pretending …

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